辽宁省城市化与经济发展的关系研究

发布时间：2018-05-01 14:05

本文选题：城市化 + 经济发展　；参考：《辽宁大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文首先介绍城市化与经济发展的理论内涵,以此来多角度地选取指标,从而建立城市化与经济发展的耦合指标体系。运用熵权法来确定各个指标的权重,分别计算城市化与经济发展两个子系统的综合发展指数,对辽宁省14市进行城市化水平和经济发展水平的聚类分析。通过耦合协调模型计算14市从2005年到2014年的城市化与经济发展的耦合协调度。依据耦合协调分类级别,分别对14市进行城市化水平、经济发展水平和耦合协调关系的分析与评价,得出各地市在这三方面的总体发展情况和变化趋势,再运用灰色预测模型对14市在2015年的耦合协调度进行预测。然后运用单一指标法对辽宁省际数据进行动态计量分析,综合对比从2005年到2014年熵权法计算得到的各指标权重,得出非农从业人口比重在城市化子系统中综合权重最大,人均GDP在经济发展子系统中综合权重最大。因此选择非农从业人口比重和人均GDP分别代表城市化和经济发展,来进行辽宁省城市化与经济发展的关系研究。运用协整检验、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果关系检验和脉冲响应分析等计量经济方法,得出辽宁省城市化与经济发展存在长期均衡关系,经济发展对城市化的影响在短期就能体现,并且在滞后期为2-3年时最明显,但城市化对经济发展的影响在短期内无法体现,影响作用要在一个超过10年的周期后才能体现。
[Abstract]:This paper first introduces the theoretical connotation of urbanization and economic development, and then selects indicators from many angles to establish a coupling index system between urbanization and economic development. The weight of each index is determined by using entropy weight method. The comprehensive development index of two subsystems of urbanization and economic development is calculated, and the urbanization level and economic development level of 14 cities in Liaoning Province are analyzed by cluster analysis. The coupling coordination degree between urbanization and economic development in 14 cities from 2005 to 2014 is calculated by coupling coordination model. According to the classification level of coupling coordination, the urbanization level, economic development level and coupling coordination relationship of 14 cities are analyzed and evaluated respectively, and the overall development situation and change trend of each city in these three aspects are obtained. Then the grey prediction model is used to predict the coupling coordination degree of 14 cities in 2015. Then the single index method is used to carry on the dynamic econometric analysis to the inter-provincial data, the comprehensive comparison each index weight calculated from 2005 to 2014 by entropy weight method, draws the conclusion that the proportion of non-agricultural working population is the most important in the urbanization subsystem. Per capita GDP in the economic development subsystem the largest comprehensive weight. Therefore, the proportion of non-agricultural employed population and the per capita GDP represent urbanization and economic development, respectively, to study the relationship between urbanization and economic development in Liaoning Province. By using the econometric methods such as cointegration test, error correction model, Granger causality test and impulse response analysis, it is concluded that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between urbanization and economic development in Liaoning Province. The impact of economic development on urbanization can be reflected in the short term, and is the most obvious when the lag is 2-3 years, but the impact of urbanization on economic development cannot be reflected in the short term, and the effect can only be reflected after a period of more than 10 years.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127;F299.27

【参考文献】