中国对外直接投资如何影响出口——基于目的地“建设许可”工具变量的研究

发布时间：2018-05-05 09:19

本文选题：OFDI + 出口　；参考：《中央财经大学学报》2017年02期

【摘要】：笔者使用2003—2014年中国对外直接投资(OFDI)和联合国UNCOMTRADE双边贸易数据,深入考察了OFDI对中国出口(包括产品层面二元边际)的影响。研究发现,中国OFDI对出口的影响呈现倒U型,即其随着投资规模的扩大,对出口产生先促进后降低的作用。笔者通过构建目的地加权"建设许可"指标作为OFDI的工具变量,在有效解决内生性问题后,这一结果依然稳健。从出口二元边际的角度看,中国OFDI对集约边际的影响不显著,而对扩展边际呈显著的倒U型影响。这种倒U型关系主要表现在向非OECD国家(地区)的OFDI对出口产品种类的影响,但向OECD国家(地区)的OFDI对出口产品种类的增加呈现显著促进作用。基于上述结论,笔者认为:深入探究中国OFDI对出口产生倒U型影响的原因,是今
[Abstract]:Using the bilateral trade data of China's foreign direct investment (OFDI) and the United Nations (UNCOMTRADE) from 2003 to 2014, the author examines the impact of OFDI on China's exports (including dualistic margin at product level). It is found that the impact of Chinese OFDI on exports is inverted U-shaped, that is, with the expansion of investment scale, China's OFDI has the effect of promoting exports first and then decreasing them. As a tool variable of OFDI, the author constructs the "construction permit" index weighted by destination, and after solving the problem of endogenesis effectively, the result is still robust. From the point of view of dualistic marginal of export, the influence of Chinese OFDI on the intensive marginal is not significant, but on the extended marginal is inversely U-shaped. This inverted U-type relationship is mainly manifested in the influence of OFDI to non- countries (regions) on the types of export products, but the OFDI in OECD countries (regions) has a significant promoting effect on the increase of export product types. Based on the above conclusion, the author believes that it is the reason why China's OFDI has a negative U shape effect on exports.
【作者单位】：中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年项目“国际贸易与环境:因果效应、机制及对策研究”(项目编号:71503281) 中央财经大学“青年英才”培育支持计划(项目编号:QYP1610)
【分类号】：F752.62;F125

【相似文献】