吉林省综合承载力评价研究

发布时间：2018-05-16 10:27

本文选题：状态空间法 + 综合承载力　；参考：《数学的实践与认识》2017年21期

【摘要】：运用状态空间法构建综合承载力模型,利用主成分分析法求取权重,对吉林省2005-2014年综合承载力进行了测算,结果显示:1)吉林省综合承载力虽然呈"波动式"上升,但始终处于超载状态,说明吉林省经济处于一种不可持续状态;2)自然资源承载力经济承载力生态承载力,自然资源承载力是富余的,经济承载力基本处于均衡状态,而生态资源承载力却明显不足,处于赤字状态,说明生态环境将限制吉林省经济发展;3)土地资源承载力水资源承载力能源承载力,土地资源承载力是富余的,但水资源和能源承载力却不足,处于赤字状态,说明水资源与能源是制约吉林省经济发展限制性因素;最后从发展循环经济,优化产业结构,提高科学技术,改变人们生产和生活方式等来提高吉林省综合承载力,旨为吉林省经济持续发展提供了技术支撑.
[Abstract]:Using the state space method to construct the comprehensive bearing capacity model, using principal component analysis method to calculate the comprehensive bearing capacity of Jilin Province from 2005 to 2014, the results show that the comprehensive bearing capacity of Jilin Province is rising "fluctuating". However, it is always in the state of overload, indicating that Jilin Province economy is in an unsustainable state) the economic carrying capacity of natural resources is ecological carrying capacity, the natural resources carrying capacity is surplus, and the economic carrying capacity is basically in a balanced state. However, the carrying capacity of ecological resources is obviously insufficient and is in a deficit state, indicating that the ecological environment will limit the economic development of Jilin Province) the carrying capacity of land resources, the carrying capacity of water resources, and the carrying capacity of land resources are surplus. However, the carrying capacity of water resources and energy is insufficient and is in a deficit state, indicating that water resources and energy are the restrictive factors restricting the economic development of Jilin Province; finally, from the perspective of developing circular economy, optimizing the industrial structure, improving science and technology, Changing people's production and life style to improve the comprehensive bearing capacity of Jilin Province provides technical support for the sustained economic development of Jilin Province.
【作者单位】：吉林师范大学旅游与地理科学学院;
【基金】：吉林省社会科学基金项目“吉林省新型城镇化与新农村建设耦合发展研究”(2017B53)
【分类号】：F127

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