长江经济带县域经济空间格局演变分析

发布时间：2018-05-19 08:15

本文选题：Mann-Kendall + SDE　；参考：《经济地理》2016年06期

【摘要】：基于Mann-Kendall方法对1990年以来长江经济带县域经济进行突变点分析,结合数理统计及空间分析方法,在Arc GIS、Geo Da等软件支持下,以人均GDP为测度指标对长江经济带县域经济空间格局演变进行多视角分析。结果显示:长江经济带县域经济空间总体呈东北—西南格局,重心迁移以东西方向为主、南北方向变化较小,在主半轴方向上阶段性特征明显,辅半轴则呈持续收缩趋势;县域经济格局具有两极分化、圈层扩散、地域差异等特征;1990—2003年区域县域经济呈集聚分布态势,2003—2013年经济发展的空间集聚态势有所减弱,热点区主要位于长三角地区,冷点区集中分布于中西部地带;长江经济带县域经济满足位序—规模法则,其发展状况呈分散均衡型,其演变格局表明各类型县域比例差异较小,东部经济地带以先升后降型为主,中部经济地带以下降型县域为主导,西部经济地带主要为持续上升型;地理区位与交通条件、产业布局与全球化水平、城市等级体系状况、国家政策导向等因素是促进长江经济带县域经济格局演变的重要驱动因素。
[Abstract]:Based on the Mann-Kendall method, the sudden change point analysis of the county economy in the Yangtze River economic belt since 1990 is carried out. With the help of mathematical statistics and spatial analysis, and with the support of Arc GIS Geo Da and so on, Taking per capita GDP as the measure index, this paper analyzes the evolution of the spatial pattern of the county economy in the Yangtze economic belt from multiple perspectives. The results show that the county economic space of the Yangtze River economic belt is in the northeast southwest pattern, the center of gravity migration is mainly in the east and west direction, the change in the north and south direction is relatively small, the stage characteristic is obvious in the direction of the main half axis, and the auxiliary half axis shows the trend of continuous contraction. The pattern of county economy has the characteristics of polarization, circle diffusion and regional difference. From 1990 to 2003, the regional county economy showed a situation of agglomeration and distribution. The spatial agglomeration trend of economic development in 2003-2013 was weakened, and the hot spots were mainly located in the Yangtze River Delta region. The cold spot area is concentrated in the central and western regions, the county economy of the Yangtze River economic belt satisfies the law of order and scale, and its development is distributed and balanced, and its evolution pattern indicates that the difference of the proportion of each type of county is small. The eastern economic zone is dominated by ascending and then descending type, the central economic zone is dominated by descending county territory, and the western economic zone is characterized by continuous upward pattern, geographical location and traffic conditions, industrial distribution and globalization level, and the status of urban hierarchy system. National policy orientation is an important driving factor to promote the evolution of the county economic pattern in the Yangtze River economic belt.
【作者单位】：江西师范大学江西经济发展研究院/地理与环境学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41161021、41561025)
【分类号】：F127

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