中国资本回报率:考虑碳减排成本的新核算

发布时间：2018-05-28 10:11

  本文选题：碳减排成本 + 资本回报率　； 参考：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年10期

【摘要】：对资本回报率进行绿色核算既符合当前绿色发展的新理念,同时也是判断我国经济增长可持续性的重要依据。使用超越对数生产函数估算1960—2014年碳排放的影子价格;利用Hall-Jorgenson租金公式测算剔除碳减排成本的中国资本回报率的动态演变趋势。对中国资本回报率重新估算克服了因忽略碳减排成本而导致的高估,估算结果更加科学可靠。研究结果:(1)中国碳排放的影子价格由1960年的56.34元/t上升到2011年的1651.69/t,根据影子价格计算的碳减排成本占GDP总量的份额年均为31%。(2)不考虑碳减排成本和税收因素的基础资本回报率变动趋势可以划分为三个阶段。1952-1983年为第一阶段,资本回报率在波动中由高位逐步回落。1984—2010年是第二个阶段,基础资本回报率保持平稳。2011年以来是第三个阶段,这一阶段中国的资本回报率呈台阶式下降趋势,特别是2012—2014年,税后的资本回报率已经难以抵补企业投资的机会成本。(3)考虑碳减排成本将导致资本回报率平均下降约12%。其中1960—1975年资本回报率呈下降趋势。1976—2008年资本回报率基本保持稳定,资本回报率平均值为15.2%。2009年以后,资本回报率则表现出逐年下降的趋势,2014年的估算值甚至降为-1%。本文仅考虑了碳减排成本,如果再考虑诸如二氧化硫等废气排放、废水与固废排放的成本后,绿色资本回报率的估算值将更低。建议:在当前的经济形势下,应实施激励企业技术创新以及减税(尤其是生产税)政策遏制资本回报率下降的趋势。另外,需要采取分阶段递增的环境规制政策,逐步实现企业环境外部成本的内部化。
[Abstract]:Green accounting for the rate of return on capital is not only in line with the new concept of green development, but also is an important basis for judging the sustainability of economic growth in China. The shadow price of carbon emissions in 1960-2014 is estimated by using the surpassing logarithmic production function, and the dynamic evolution trend of China's capital return rate excluding the cost of carbon reduction is estimated by using the Hall-Jorgenson rent formula. The revaluation of China's return on capital overcomes the overestimation caused by ignoring the cost of reducing carbon emissions, and the results are more scientific and reliable. Results: (1) the shadow price of China's carbon emissions rose from 56.34 yuan / t in 1960 to 1651.69 / t in 2011, and the average annual share of carbon emission reduction costs in total GDP calculated according to shadow prices was 31.2.) the basis for disregarding the cost of reducing carbon emissions and tax revenue factors Trends in the rate of return on capital can be divided into three stages. The return on capital gradually fell from high to high. 1984-2010 was the second stage, and the return on basic capital remained stable. Since 2011, the return on capital has been the third stage, and the return on capital in China has been declining step by step. In particular, in 2012-2014, the after-tax rate of return on capital has become difficult to offset the opportunity cost of corporate investment.) considering the cost of reducing carbon emissions, the average return on capital will fall by about 12 cents. The return on capital in 1960-1975 showed a downward trend. The return on capital remained stable in 1976-2008. After the average return of capital was 15.2.2009, the return on capital showed a downward trend year by year, and the estimated value in 2014 even dropped to -1. The cost of carbon emission reduction is only considered in this paper. If the cost of waste water and solid waste emissions such as sulfur dioxide is taken into account the estimate of green capital return will be even lower. Suggestions: under the current economic situation, we should implement the policy of encouraging technological innovation of enterprises and reducing tax (especially production tax) to curb the downward trend of return on capital. In addition, it is necessary to adopt step by step environmental regulation policy to realize the internalization of external cost of enterprise environment step by step.
【作者单位】： 西安外国语大学经济金融学院;西安外国语大学资源环境与产业经济学研究中心;暨南大学经济学院;
【基金】：陕西省软科学研究计划重点项目“陕西省生态环境修复与治理研究”(批准号:2015KRZ006);陕西省软科学研究计划项目“智能电网条件下西安市居民家庭用户分终端电力需求侧管理的成本收益研究”(批准号:2015KRM143)
【分类号】：F124;X321
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本文编号：1946308