基于产业结构模型的中国经济结构调整路径测算与增长动力分析

发布时间：2018-06-03 18:03

本文选题：结构调整路径 + 勒纳指数　；参考：《山东大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2017年04期

【摘要】：在经济增速换挡、结构性问题突出的新常态下,结构调整与转变发展模式成为备受关注的议题。然而鲜有对经济结构调整路径的测算以及从结构角度对增长动力的剖析。通过建立经济结构跨期路径模型,测算了我国未来十年经济结构的均衡调整路径,并根据测算结果与中间变量对经济增长动力进行分析。结果表明:第一产业将在经济结构调整中迎来发展机遇,其资本与产出占比均会有显著增加;第二产业将通过结构调整释放发展空间,在需求的拉动下获得一定发展,其资本与产出占比将有所降低;第三产业的产出占比处在合意区间内,在需求拉动的作用下将继续保持最大产业的地位。
[Abstract]:In the new normal of economic growth shift and structural problems, structural adjustment and transformation of development model have become the subject of much concern. However, there is little calculation of the economic structure adjustment path and analysis of the growth motive force from the structural point of view. By establishing the intertemporal path model of economic structure, this paper calculates the equilibrium adjustment path of China's economic structure in the next ten years, and analyzes the motive force of economic growth according to the calculation results and intermediate variables. The results show that the primary industry will meet the development opportunities in the economic restructuring, and its capital and output share will increase significantly, and the secondary industry will release the development space through structural adjustment and obtain certain development under the demand. The ratio of capital to output will be reduced, the ratio of output of tertiary industry will be in the desirable range, and the position of the largest industry will continue to be maintained under the action of demand-driven.
【作者单位】：吉林大学数量经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“中国经济潜在增长率计算与结构转换路径研究”(12&ZD197)
【分类号】：F121.3

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