我国对外贸易、产业结构升级与经济增长关系研究

发布时间：2018-06-11 23:34

本文选题：贸易开放度 + 贸易结构　；参考：《重庆大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：自改革开放以来，我国的对外贸易无论是从总量还是结构上都发生了很大的变化，对外贸易总额不断增加，对外开放程度也在逐渐加大。同时国内的各产业产值和产业结构也都发生了很大的变化，产值不断增加，产业结构逐渐向高级化发展。对外贸易和产业结构作为影响我国经济发展的两个重要因素，两者之间的内在关系密不可分。文章以对外贸易、产业结构升级与经济增长三者之间的相互影响关系作为研究对象，采用理论研究和实证分析相结合的方法进行论证。在对贸易结构、产业结构升级和经济增长的两两关系进行文献梳理的基础上，首先对我国改革开放以来对外贸易总额、贸易结构和产业结构升级的发展和现状进行分析描述。在实证分析部分，利用我国1978-2012年的有关宏观经济数据，分别从贸易开放度和贸易结构变化两个角度分析对外贸易与产业结构升级、经济增长之间的关系。经过协整检验、脉冲响应分析以及格兰杰因果关系检验等，得出以下分析结论：我国贸易开放度与产业结构升级及经济增长三者之间不存在长期的均衡关系，而贸易结构变化与产业结构升级和经济增长三者之间存在长期均衡关系，对外贸易和产业结构升级都能带动我国的经济增长。贸易开放度的提高有助于促进我国的产业结构升级，进而促进我国的经济增长。最后根据本文的实证研究结论提出相应的政策建议：进一步扩大对外开放，优化对外贸易商品结构，大力提升对外服务贸易，努力提高外贸竞争力，大力发展高新技术产品贸易；努力促进第一、第二产业向第三产业转变，但在注重产业结构升级的同时，还应考虑产业结构的优化合理，加快发展现代农业，，全面提高现代工业，更要大力推进服务业。总之我国贸易开放程度的提高、贸易结构的升级变化以及产业结构的优化升级将是我国经济增长的持久动力。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's foreign trade has undergone great changes in both the total volume and the structure, the total volume of foreign trade has been increasing, and the degree of opening to the outside world has gradually increased. At the same time, the domestic industrial output value and industrial structure have also undergone great changes, the output value continues to increase, and the industrial structure gradually develops to a higher level. Foreign trade and industrial structure are two important factors influencing the economic development of our country. The interaction between the upgrading of industrial structure and economic growth is the object of study, which is demonstrated by the combination of theoretical research and empirical analysis. On the basis of literature review of trade structure, industrial structure upgrading and economic growth, this paper first analyzes and describes the development and present situation of foreign trade, trade structure and industrial structure upgrading since China's reform and opening up. In the part of empirical analysis, we analyze the relationship between foreign trade and industrial structure upgrading and economic growth from the perspective of trade openness and trade structure change by using the relevant macroeconomic data from 1978 to 2012 in China. After cointegration test, impulse response analysis and Granger causality test, the following conclusions are drawn: there is no long-term equilibrium relationship between China's trade openness and industrial structure upgrading and economic growth. There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the change of trade structure and the upgrading of industrial structure and economic growth. Both foreign trade and upgrading of industrial structure can promote the economic growth of our country. The improvement of trade openness will help to promote the upgrading of China's industrial structure and further promote China's economic growth. Finally, according to the empirical research conclusions of this paper, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward: further opening to the outside world, To optimize the structure of foreign trade commodities, vigorously promote foreign trade in services, strive to improve the competitiveness of foreign trade, vigorously develop trade in high-tech products, and strive to promote the transformation of the first and secondary industries to the tertiary industry, However, while paying attention to the upgrading of industrial structure, we should also consider the optimization and rationality of industrial structure, speed up the development of modern agriculture, improve modern industry in an all-round way, and vigorously promote the service industry. In short, the improvement of China's trade openness, the upgrading of trade structure and the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure will be the lasting driving force for China's economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.7;F121.3;F124.1

【参考文献】