结构性减速下的适度经济增长研究

发布时间：2018-07-03 04:34

本文选题：结构性减速 + 劳动生产率　；参考：《南京财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：自2008年金融危机以来,中国GDP季度增速经历了一个“V”型的下降和反弹轨迹,在2010年第一季度达到最高点,之后出现了长达16个季度的下滑态势。对于此轮经济增速下滑,一些学者认为是“结构性”的,而非周期性的。结构性减速主要来源于两大结构变化：产业结构和人口结构,产业结构服务化带来了劳动生产率的减速,人口结构的变化结束了廉价劳动力时代。结构性减速又称为系统性减速,是一种长期趋势。外在的能源环境对经济增长的约束将持续强化,依靠传统高投资和高投入驱动的高速经济增长,不利于经济社会的可持续健康发展,国民福利的提升要求经济增速不能太慢,理论上的适度经济增长是存在的。与西方发达国家不同,中国的结构性减速发生在较低的收入水平上,进而不利于国民福利的提高和经济可持续增长。因此,在“结构性减速”背景下,研究如何保持适度的经济增长,重构经济增长的动力机制,具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文的内容由五个章节构成。第一章为绪论部分,主要是现有的相关文献进行回顾的总结。第二章为理论部分,首先,对结构性减速进行定义;然后建立了引入产业结构调整的经济增长模型,从理论上阐述了结构调整对经济增长的影响；其次,对人均GDP进行因素分解,分解出了3个结构性因素,分别是劳动生产率、劳动参与率和劳动年龄人口比重,为了反映产业结构调整对劳动生产率的影响,又对劳动生产率分三次产业进行了分解;最后,利用13个国家的面板数据,实证分析了3个结构性因素对经济增长的影响。第三章描述分析了中国经济增长减速的风险,主要分析了经济增长减速的结构性因素。第四章,首先阐述了适度经济增长的内涵,其本质含义是一个国家或地区的潜在经济增长；然后分析了结构性因素对资本和劳动的影响；其次分析了传统模型存在的缺陷,改进了索洛增长核算模型；最后基于改进之后的模型,测算了中国2015-2025年的潜在经济增长率。根据本文的分析,主要有以下结论：(1)低效的产业结构将严重削弱整体效率的提升,长期内会造成经济增长乏力。(2)人口结构的变化,劳动力供给减少,未必会降低潜在经济增长,关键在于提高劳动生产率。(3)受结构性因素的影响,未来资本增速会降低,提高资本效率是关键。(4)技术进步是驱动未来经济增长的重要力量。(5)在2015-2025年,中国的经济增长可把握在以6.5%为中线的适度区间内。
[Abstract]:Since the 2008 financial crisis, quarterly GDP growth in China has experienced a "V-shaped" decline and rebound trajectory, peaked in the first quarter of 2010, followed by a 16-quarter decline. Some scholars see the slowdown as "structural" rather than cyclical. The structural deceleration mainly comes from two structural changes: industrial structure and population structure. The service of industrial structure brings the deceleration of labor productivity, and the change of population structure ends the era of cheap labor. Structural deceleration, also known as systemic deceleration, is a long-term trend. The external energy environment will continue to strengthen the constraints on economic growth. Relying on the traditional high investment and high input driven high speed economic growth is not conducive to the sustainable and healthy development of the economy and society. The promotion of national welfare requires that the economic growth rate should not be too slow. In theory, moderate economic growth exists. Unlike western developed countries, China's structural deceleration occurs at lower income levels, which in turn is not conducive to the improvement of national welfare and sustainable economic growth. Therefore, under the background of "structural deceleration", it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study how to maintain moderate economic growth and reconstruct the motive mechanism of economic growth. The content of this paper consists of five chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, mainly the review of the existing literature. The second chapter is the theoretical part, first, the definition of structural deceleration; then the establishment of the industrial structure adjustment of economic growth model, from the theory of structural adjustment on the impact of economic growth; secondly, In order to reflect the effect of industrial structure adjustment on labor productivity, the factors of per capita GDP are decomposed into three structural factors, namely, labor productivity, labor participation rate and the proportion of working-age population. Finally, using the panel data of 13 countries, the paper empirically analyzes the influence of three structural factors on the economic growth. The third chapter describes the risk of China's economic growth deceleration, mainly analyzes the structural factors of economic growth deceleration. In the fourth chapter, the connotation of moderate economic growth is first expounded, the essential meaning is the potential economic growth of a country or region; then, the influence of structural factors on capital and labor is analyzed; secondly, the defects of traditional models are analyzed. Finally, based on the improved model, the potential economic growth rate of China in 2015-2025 is calculated. According to the analysis of this paper, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) inefficient industrial structure will seriously weaken the overall efficiency and will cause economic growth in the long run. (2) the change of population structure, the decrease of labor supply, The key is to increase labor productivity. (3) under the influence of structural factors, capital growth will decrease in the future, and capital efficiency will be the key. (4) technological progress is an important force driving future economic growth. (5) in 2015-2025, China's economic growth can be grasped in a moderate range of 6.5% as the midline.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124

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