中国贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的影响

发布时间：2018-07-03 11:04

本文选题：贸易开放 + 城乡居民收入差距　；参考：《浙江大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：在经济全球化的时代,每个国家都在逐步融入国际分工与合作体系,以期借势促进本国经济的发展。在贸易全球化的趋势下,中国面临着更加开放的国际市场和自由贸易。随着市场经济体制的确立和加入WTO,中国的贸易开放得到了快速发展,贸易依存度迅速提高。与此同时,中国的城乡居民收入差距也呈现不断扩大的趋势。而同在改革开放背景下所出现的且均呈增大趋势的贸易开放和城乡居民收入差距,很容易使人去猜度两者之间存在的某种联系。于是,国内外学者就贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的影响进行了大量研究。但由于存在分析的目标、衡量的指标、解释的机理、数据的口径等诸多不同,这一问题目前并没有一致的结论。本文分为四个子研究分别从不同角度就贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的作用进行了重新解读。在子研究一中,分别从传统视角下和区域空间上就贸易开放与城乡居民收入差距的演变历程进行阐述后,进而对两者之间的关系进行了分析。(1)无论从传统视角下还是区域空间上观察,贸易开放和城乡居民收入差距均呈正相关关系。(2)采用灰色关联度分析表明,无论是全国,还是分为东部、中部和西部三大区域来观察；无论是贸易开放,还是把贸易开放分为出口开放和进口开放来观察,贸易开放度与城乡居民收入差距之间均存在较高的关联度。关联分析的结果印证了直观上的感觉,即贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距呈强关联。在子研究二中,根据以往研究中对地理空间因素的忽略,本文基于1978-2011年的省级数据,采用空间计量法分析了贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的影响。实证发现：贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距呈正向作用,与现状分析相一致；但考虑城乡居民收入差距的空间溢出效应之后,贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的正向作用降低,这可能源于城乡居民收入差距的空间正向效应对贸易开放的正向效应造成的挤出。因此,可以合理利用空间效应具有弱化贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的正向作用,以实现通过调节空间效应达到促进外贸增长和缩小城乡居民收入差距之目标。在子研究三中,根据已有研究中存在数据过于中观或宏观、微观数据所采用的年数过少、研究结果不够直观等局限性,本文基于1995、2002、2007和2010年等四个年份的微观大样本数据,利用Mincer收入扩展模型,运用Oaxaca-Ransom分解法,把贸易开放置于包含劳动者的基本特征、工作特征和地区特征等微观个体因素以及经济结构、经济发展等宏观经济因素的情境中,分析贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的影响。研究结论表明,贸易开放因素对城乡居民收入差距的影响整体表现为较低的负向贡献作用,但对贸易开放拆分后对进口和出口进行分开考察,进口开放和出口开放对城乡居民收入差距的贡献率都比较大；贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的贡献方向稳定,而且贡献率整体呈递增态势。可以看出,不可因为贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的整体贡献率较低而忽视贸易开放因素对城乡居民收入差距的影响。在子研究四中,根据已有的关于贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距影响的文献中研究的侧重点多放在影响因素贸易开放的现象,本文则把研究关注的重点适当向城乡居民收入差距方面作了转移。众所周知,“民不患寡而患不均”,如果出现城乡居民收入差距地区发展的不平衡问题,容易引起民众的怨忿从而增加社会的不稳定因素。因此,如何促进中国各地区城乡居民收入差距的趋同,对经济社会的发展具有重要意义。鉴于此,本文建立收敛回归模型,基于1978-2011年的省级数据,就贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距增长收敛的影响做了分析。研究发现,贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的增长率呈负向作用,而对中国各省份城乡居民收入差距呈不显著的发散作用。从分进口和出口来看,贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距增长率的负向作用是出口开放对城乡居民收入差距增长率的负向作用和进口开放对城乡居民收入差距呈不显著的正向作用协同作用的结果；贸易开放对中国各省份城乡居民收入差距呈不显著的发散作用是出口开放对中国各省区城乡居民收入差距的发散作用和进口开放对中国各省份城乡居民收入差距呈不显著的收敛作用协同作用的结果。最后,基于实证分析结果,本文全面总结了贸易开放对城乡居民收入差距的影响作用,提出了相应的政策建议,并对需要进一步的研究方向作了说明。
[Abstract]:In the era of economic globalization , each country is gradually integrated into the international division of labor and cooperation , with a view to promoting the development of the national economy . With the establishment of the market economic system and the entry of WTO , China ' s trade liberalization has been developing rapidly .

In the sub - study , the relationship between the openness of trade and the income gap of urban and rural residents is analyzed from the traditional perspective and in the regional space respectively . ( 1 ) There is a positive correlation between the open trade and the income gap of urban and rural residents .
Whether the trade is open or the opening of the trade is divided into the opening of exports and the opening of imports , there is a high correlation between the openness of trade and the income gap of urban and rural residents . The result of the correlation analysis confirms the visual perception that the openness of trade is strongly associated with the income gap of urban and rural residents .

In the second part of the study , according to the neglect of geographical space factor in the past research , based on the provincial data of 1978 - 2011 , this paper analyses the effect of trade opening on the income gap of urban and rural residents based on the provincial data from 1978 to 2011 .
However , considering the spatial spillover effect of the income gap of urban and rural residents , the positive effect of the opening of trade on the income gap of urban and rural residents is reduced , which may be due to the positive effect of the spatial forward effect of the income gap of urban and rural residents on the positive effects of trade openness . Therefore , it is possible to rationally utilize the space effect to weaken the positive effect of the trade opening on the income gap of the urban and rural residents , so as to realize the goal of promoting the growth of foreign trade and narrowing the income gap of the urban and rural residents through adjusting the space effect .

Based on the macro - sample data of four years , such as 1995 , 2002 , 2007 and 2010 , the author uses the Mincer ' s income expansion model to analyze the impact of the opening of trade on the income gap of urban and rural residents .
The contribution direction of the opening of trade to the income gap of urban and rural residents is stable , and the contribution rate is gradually increasing . It can be seen that the influence of the opening factor of trade to the income gap of urban and rural residents cannot be neglected because of the low overall contribution rate of the open trade to the income gap of urban and rural residents .

In the fourth part of this paper , according to the existing literatures about the influence of trade openness on the income gap of urban and rural residents , this paper analyzes the influence factors on the income gap of urban and rural residents . It is found that the negative effect of the opening of trade on the growth rate of urban and rural residents ' income gap is the negative effect on the growth rate of urban and rural residents ' income gap .
The divergence of the openness of trade to the income gap between urban and rural residents in all provinces of China is the result of the convergence of export opening to the income gap between urban and rural residents in all provinces of China and the opening to the income gap between urban and rural residents in all provinces of China .

Finally , based on the results of the empirical analysis , this paper summarizes the effect of the opening of trade on the income gap of urban and rural residents , puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions , and explains the further research direction .
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752;F124.7

【参考文献】