我国社会融资结构变化对流动性和经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-07-03 11:16

本文选题：流动性 + 经济增长　；参考：《天津财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来我国逐步推进经济体制改革,资本市场借助各方支持得到长足发展。通过银行体系获得资金的间接融资方式在2005年前还占据优势,但在2005年后,随着经济转型升级的不断优化,通过股票市场、债券市场的直接融资途径得到金融政策、法律法规的大力扶持获得快速发展。与此同时,社会融资规模日益扩大,经济运转平稳持续,但是人民币贷款占比出现下降态势,以银行表外融资、民间借贷、企业债等途径的直接融资比重却逐渐增大,这一状况充分表明当前的社会融资结构已发生变化。文章在金融结构理论的基础上,分析了融资结构变化的表现和影响。在分析当前流动性状况时站在不同角度,运用HP滤波法、马歇尔K值法、流动性缺口法,得出流动性总量剩余、总体合理可控的结论,进而解释了“钱荒”问题的本质。关于融资结构变化对经济增长的影响,文章按照计量经济学研究方法,在设计计量模型时创新性的以社会融资规模中的直接融资和间接融资做自变量,去观察和因变量GDP的关系,分析不同融资方式对GDP作用的大小,得出直接融资在促进未来经济增长中发挥积极作用的结论。与其他论文不同的是文章对融资结构、流动性、经济增长三者间进行联动分析,揭示它们之间相互牵连、息息相关的本质。最后依据文章的研究成果,针对当前现状,提出优化融资结构,扩大直接融资比重的相关政策建议。总之,通过融资结构变化对流动性和经济增长的影响研究表明,直接融资成为未来经济增长的主动力是大势所趋,虽然间接融资对经济增长的作用减弱,但在当下仍然是非常重要的融资方式。发展直接融资,改善融资环境,丰富资本市场层次,创新直接融资工具,加强法律法规治理,对我国的经济增长及优化融资结构意义重大。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China has gradually promoted the reform of the economic system, and the capital market has made considerable progress with the support of all parties. Indirect financing through the banking system had an advantage before 2005, but after 2005, with the continuous optimization of economic transformation and upgrading, financial policies were obtained through direct financing channels in the stock market and the bond market. The strong support of laws and regulations has achieved rapid development. At the same time, the scale of social financing is expanding day by day, and the economic operation is steadily continuing. However, the proportion of RMB loans has declined, and the direct financing proportion of such channels as bank off-balance sheet financing, private lending, corporate bonds, etc., has gradually increased. This situation fully shows that the current social financing structure has changed. Based on the theory of financial structure, this paper analyzes the performance and influence of the change of financing structure. In the analysis of the current liquidity situation, we use HP filter method, Marshall K value method and liquidity gap method to obtain the conclusion that the total liquidity surplus is reasonable and controllable, and the essence of the problem of "money shortage" is explained. As to the influence of the change of financing structure on economic growth, according to the econometrics research method, the paper innovatively uses direct and indirect financing in the scale of social financing as independent variables when designing econometric models. To observe the relationship between GDP and dependent variables, analyze the effect of different financing methods on GDP, and draw the conclusion that direct financing plays an active role in promoting economic growth in the future. What is different from other papers is the linkage analysis of financing structure, liquidity and economic growth, which reveals the intertwined and closely related essence between them. Finally, according to the research results and the current situation, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to optimize the financing structure and expand the proportion of direct financing. In a word, the research on the influence of the change of financing structure on liquidity and economic growth shows that direct financing is the main driving force of economic growth in the future, although indirect financing plays a weaker role in economic growth. But it's still a very important way to raise money right now. Developing direct financing, improving financing environment, enriching the level of capital market, innovating direct financing tools and strengthening the governance of laws and regulations are of great significance to the economic growth and the optimization of financing structure of our country.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124

【参考文献】