碳减排目标下福建省产业结构调整路径研究

发布时间：2018-07-05 17:20

本文选题：产业结构 + 碳减排　；参考：《华侨大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：自二十世纪末以来,气候变化问题给人类的生存和发展带来了严峻挑战,受到国内外政府和学术界的关注。减少化石能源消耗,降低二氧化碳排放,是世界各国的共同愿景。中国经济持续增长,二氧化碳排放量在不断上升,目前需要向低碳经济转型发展。福建省作为我国东南沿海经济大省,面临着较大的减排压力。不同产业碳排放量不同,因此应该有着不同的碳减排任务,这样能保证碳减排和经济增长双重目标的实现。由于产业之间存在关联,单独考虑经济增长会加重环境污染,从而给自然环境带来更多的灾害;单独考虑碳减排会保护环境,但是会造成经济滑坡,降低人们的物质生活水平。因此研究产业结构调整时应该把经济因素与环境因素结合考虑,从而制定出有效的低碳产业发展政策。在目前有关产业结构发展和低碳经济理论的基础上,本文将产业结构和碳排放相两者结合,首先对福建省产业结构现状及能源与二氧化碳排放现状进行分析,采用排放因子法测算了福建省二氧化碳排放量;并运用投入产出模型对28个产业进行产业关联分析,对各产业的经济关联与碳排放关联进行测算,从而选择出福建省产业结构调整路径。在此基础上,通过构建多目标规划模型,在经济增长和节能减排目标下模拟,福建省2013年产业内部如何进行结构调整,并对2015年福建省产业结构比重进行预测。基于以上分析研究,本文提出在低碳背景下福建省产业结构调整的相关政策建议。本文得出结论:(1)福建省应该鼓励发展农林牧渔业、非金属矿及其他矿采选业和食品制造及烟草加工业等11个产业部门;限制发展非金属矿物制品业、金属冶炼及压延制品业、废品废料业这3个产业部门。(2)产业结构调整可以在促进福建省经济增长的同时降低能源消费量与二氧化碳排放量。(3)产业结构调整后福建省第一产业和第二产业增加值比重下降,第三产业增加值比重上升。
[Abstract]:Since the end of the 20th century, the problem of climate change has brought severe challenges to the survival and development of human beings. Reducing fossil energy consumption and reducing carbon dioxide emissions is the common vision of the world. China's economy continues to grow, carbon dioxide emissions are rising, and there is a need for a transition to a low-carbon economy. Fujian Province, as a large economic province in the southeast coast of China, is facing great pressure of emission reduction. Different industries have different carbon emissions, so they should have different tasks to reduce carbon emissions, which can ensure the realization of the dual goals of carbon emission reduction and economic growth. Considering economic growth alone will aggravate environmental pollution and bring more disasters to the natural environment. Considering carbon emission reduction alone will protect the environment, but it will cause economic decline and lower people's material living standard. Therefore, economic factors and environmental factors should be taken into account in the study of industrial structure adjustment so as to formulate effective low-carbon industry development policies. Based on the development of industrial structure and the theory of low-carbon economy, this paper combines the industrial structure with carbon emissions, and analyzes the current situation of industrial structure and energy and carbon dioxide emissions in Fujian Province. The carbon dioxide emissions of Fujian Province are measured by using the emission factor method, and 28 industries are analyzed by the input-output model, and the economic correlation and the carbon emission correlation of each industry are measured. In order to choose Fujian Province industrial structure adjustment path. On this basis, by constructing a multi-objective programming model and simulating under the targets of economic growth and energy saving and emission reduction, how to adjust the industrial structure within Fujian Province in 2013 and forecast the proportion of industrial structure in 2015 in Fujian Province are forecasted. Based on the above analysis, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on the adjustment of industrial structure in Fujian Province under the low carbon background. The conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) Fujian Province should encourage the development of 11 industrial sectors, such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, non-metal mining and other mineral separation, food manufacturing and tobacco processing, and restrict the development of non-metallic mineral products, metal smelting and calender products. (2) the adjustment of industrial structure can promote the economic growth of Fujian Province while reducing energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. (3) after the adjustment of the industrial structure, the proportion of added value of the primary and secondary industries in Fujian Province has decreased. The proportion of added value of tertiary industry rose.
【学位授予单位】：华侨大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127

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