河南省环境经济协调发展路径及预警研究

发布时间：2018-07-09 15:27

本文选题：环境经济 + 协调发展　；参考：《武汉理工大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：我国经济社会发展取得了举世瞩目的成就，但由于经济增长建立在高消耗、高污染的传统发展模式上，我国出现了比较严重的环境污染和生态破坏，使环境保护面临的压力越来越大。河南省是中原经济区的主体，能源紧缺、资源供应不足、环境压力加大已经成为制约其经济社会持续快速发展的重要因素。在面临资源、环境、生态等新问题、新挑战、新要求的形势下，传统的资源型、污染型产业发展模式已经不适应发展需要，选择出适合环境经济协调发展的路径更具有迫切的现实意义。基于上述背景，本文综合运用协同学、系统演化论、系统动力学等理论，对河南省环境经济系统的协调发展状况、环境经济系统的运行机理、协调发展路径及预警几个方面进行了研究。论文的研究内容主要分为四个部分：（1）在协同学理论、系统演化理论的基础上，构建环境经济协调发展动态耦合评价模型，并对河南省环境经济动态耦合演化过程和协调发展状况进行评价分析；（2）通过分析河南省环境经济系统的运行机理，，构建环境经济系统动力模型，对该系统基本行为进行仿真及政策调控设计；（3）设计三个类型（经济高效型、环境保护型、环境-经济协调型）12种发展仿真方案，并运用DEA模型和协调度评价模型对不同环境经济发展方案进行优化评价，选择出适合河南省环境经济协调发展的发展路径；（4）在环境经济系统动力学模型的基础上，构建基于PSR模型的河南省环境经济预警体系，运用云模型和综合评价法对不同发展方案下的河南省环境经济系统发展进行预警和动态预测。研究结果发现：（1）1990-2012年期间，河南省环境经济系统协调发展经历了螺旋上升的过程，环境系统和经济系统由从低级协调，共生发展阶段，到环境和经济两个序参量相互胁迫，相互作用直到系统演化至新的发展状态。现阶段河南省环境经济基本处于中度协调发展的状态，可以通过经济手段、环境政策等外部条件的调节和干预，影响经济序参量和环境序参量的演化速度及两者之间相互作用关系，推进环境经济系统继续向有序的方向演化。 (2)从影响河南省环境经济协调发展的主要因素着手，简化环境经济系统，建立了环境经济系统协调发展的系统动力学仿真模型。通过对河南省环境经济系统基本行为仿真分析，现有以发展第二产业，主要是发展工业为主导的经济政策，虽然会带来经济高速增长，但最终会造成环境污染存量的激增，促使环境的进一步恶化；（3）通过数据包络分析法（DEA）对13个发展方案（12个仿真方案和1个现行方案）的环境经济效率进行评价，从DEA评价结果看，环境经济效率DEA有效的方案是H-J-4，H-J-5，H-1，H-2和H-3。鉴于DEA有效的决策单元并非1个，本文又通过协调发展度评价模型对DEA有效的仿真方案进行了二次评价，结果表明在方案H-J-4和H-J-5的发展模式下，河南省环境经济在仿真区间的协调发展程度均达到了中级协调发展。因此，发展方案H-J-4和H-J-5可以作为制定河南省环境经济发展路径和协调发展战略的参考依据。 (4)在建立环境经济系统动力学模型的基础上，构建了基于PSR模型的环境经济预警指标体系，并对现行方案、环境-经济协调方案4和方案5三种发展模式下的河南省环境经济系统进行了预警仿真，研究结果表明： 1）河南省在现行的发展方案下，在2005-2030仿真区间内，环境经济系统的警情总体是趋于下降趋势的。其中2005-2011年，河南省的环境经济系统的发展处于重警区，2012年转入了中警区，并于2023年跨越了轻警区（黄灯区），进入了预警区（蓝灯区），环境经济系统的警情逐渐消除； 2）在方案H-J-4的发展模式下，在仿真区间内，2005-2009年，河南省的环境经济系统的发展处于重警区，2010年转入中警区，由于经济发展迅速，环保投资的规模逐渐增大，复合系统的警情于2013年开始转入轻警区，2021年河南省环境经济系统跨越了轻警区（黄灯区），进入了预警区（蓝灯区）。 3）在方案H-J-5的发展模式下，在仿真区间内，2005-2008年，河南省的环境经济系统的发展处于重警区，于2009年转入中警区，由于方案H-J-5以第三产业的发展为主，环境经济复合系统的警情比方案H-J-4提前一年开始进入轻警区，随着环境经济发展情况的不断改善，2020年河南省环境经济系统跨越了轻警区（黄灯区），进入了预警区（蓝灯区），比方案H-J-4提前一年进入环境经济协调发展阶段。
[Abstract]:The economic and social development of our country has made remarkable achievements. However, due to the traditional development model of high consumption and high pollution, the serious environmental pollution and ecological destruction have appeared in China, and the pressure of environmental protection is becoming more and more serious. Henan is the main body of the Central Economic Zone, the energy shortage and the shortage of resources, Increasing environmental pressure has become an important factor restricting the sustainable and rapid economic and social development. Under the situation of resources, environment, ecology and other new problems, new challenges and new requirements, the traditional resource type and pollution industry development model has not adapted to the development needs, and it is more urgent to choose the suitable path for the coordinated development of the environment and economy. Practical significance.
Based on the above background, this paper comprehensively uses the theory of synergetics, system evolution theory and system dynamics to study the coordinated development of the environmental and economic system in Henan Province, the operating mechanism of the environmental economic system, the path of coordinated development and the early warning. The research content of this thesis is divided into four parts: (1) the theory of synergetics, On the basis of system evolution theory, the dynamic coupling evaluation model of environmental and economic coordinated development is constructed, and the dynamic coupling evolution process and coordinated development status of environmental economy in Henan province are evaluated and analyzed. (2) through the analysis of the operating mechanism of the environmental and economic system in Henan Province, the dynamic model of the environmental economic system is constructed, and the basic behavior of the system is established. The simulation and policy control design are carried out; (3) 12 kinds of development simulation schemes are designed for three types (economic efficiency, environmental protection, environment economy coordination), and the DEA model and coordination degree evaluation model are used to optimize the different environmental economic development schemes, and the development path of coordinated development of environmental and economic development in Henan province is selected. (4 On the basis of the dynamic model of the environmental and economic system, the early warning system of environmental economy in Henan Province Based on the PSR model is constructed. Using the cloud model and the comprehensive evaluation method, the early warning and dynamic prediction of the development of the environmental and economic system in Henan Province under different development schemes are carried out.
The results are as follows: (1) during the 1990-2012 year period, the coordinated development of the environmental and economic system in Henan has undergone a spiral process, and the environmental and economic systems are from low level coordination, symbiotic development, and two order parameters of environment and economy are coercive to each other, and the interaction between the environment and the economy has evolved into a new state of development. At the present stage of Henan Province The environment economy is basically in the state of moderate and coordinated development, which can be adjusted and intervened through the external conditions such as economic means and environmental policy, which affect the evolution speed of economic order parameters and environmental order parameters and the interaction relationship between them, and promote the environmental and economic system to continue to evolve in the direction of order.
(2) from the main factors that affect the coordinated development of environmental and economic development in Henan Province, the environmental economic system is simplified and the system dynamics simulation model of the coordinated development of the environmental and economic system is established. Through the simulation and analysis of the basic behavior of the environmental and economic system in Henan Province, the existing economic policy is the development of the second industry, mainly the development of industry. Although it will bring about rapid economic growth, it will eventually lead to a sharp increase in the stock of environmental pollution and further deterioration of the environment.
(3) to evaluate the environmental economic efficiency of 13 development schemes (12 simulation schemes and 1 existing schemes) by data envelopment analysis (DEA). From the results of the DEA evaluation, the effective solutions of the environmental economic efficiency DEA are H-J-4, H-J-5, H-1, H-2 and H-3., which are not 1 in view of the effective decision unit of DEA. This paper also adopts a coordinated development degree evaluation model. Two evaluations are carried out on the effective simulation scheme of DEA. The results show that under the development mode of H-J-4 and H-J-5, the coordinated development degree of the environment economy in Henan province has reached the intermediate coordinated development in the simulation interval. Therefore, the development scheme H-J-4 and H-J-5 can be used to formulate the development path and the coordinated development strategy of the environment and economy in Henan province. Reference basis.
(4) on the basis of establishing the dynamic model of the environmental and economic system, the environmental economy early-warning index system based on the PSR model is constructed, and the early warning simulation of the environmental and economic system in Henan Province under the current scheme, the environment economic coordination scheme 4 and the scheme 5 of the three development modes is carried out. The results show that:
1) in Henan Province, under the current development program, the police situation in the environmental and economic system tends to decline in the 2005-2030 simulation area. In 2005-2011 years, the development of the environmental and economic system in Henan is in the heavy police area, in 2012, it was transferred to the Central Police District, and in 2023, it crossed the light police area (yellow light area) and entered the early warning area (blue light area). The police situation of the environmental and economic system has been gradually eliminated.
2) under the development model of the program H-J-4, in the simulation interval, in the 2005-2009 year, the development of the environmental and economic system in Henan is in the heavy police area. In 2010, the economic development of the complex system was gradually increased. The police situation of the compound system was transferred to the light police area in 2013, and the environmental and economic system of Henan Province in 2021 was leapfrog. The light police area (yellow light district) has entered the warning area (blue light district).
3) under the development mode of the program H-J-5, in the simulation interval, in the 2005-2008 year, the development of the environmental and economic system in Henan was in the heavy police area. In 2009, it was transferred to the Central Police area. As the scheme H-J-5 was the main industry of the third industry, the police situation of the environmental economic complex system began to enter the light police area one year earlier than the scheme H-J-4, with the environmental and economic development. In 2020, the environmental and economic system of Henan province leaped across the light police area (yellow light area) and entered the early warning area (blue light area), and entered the coordinated development stage of the environment and economy one year ahead of schedule H-J-4.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;F205

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