安徽省城乡二元经济结构的多维测度及其对经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-07-10 19:46

本文选题：二元经济 + 经济增长　；参考：《安徽大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国经济发展取得了巨大成就,然而在经济快速发展的过程中也日益涌现出一些矛盾和问题,主要是城乡发展极不协调,城乡差距在不断拉大,城乡二元结构特征日益显著。这些问题严重阻碍了国家可持续发展和城乡协调发展的进程。虽然改革开放以来,农村改革取得了骄人的成绩,使城乡社会经济结构发生了深刻变化,但是城乡二元体制并没有发生根本改变。因而,改善城乡二元结构状况将是我国今后长时间的发展重点。作为经济相对欠发达省份的安徽省,在工业化发展的过程中也出现了农业与非农产业的不均衡发展、城乡经济发展水平有较大差距的二元经济结构问题,这种差距不仅体现在人均收入上,还体现在就业、消费、教育等方面,并日益阻碍着社会经济全面协调发展。在改革开放初期,我省经济结构的“二元性”有过段时间的减弱。但随后实行工作重心调整,大力发展工业化,农村和农业为工业化做出了巨大的牺牲,农村资金不断流入城市为工业化发展提供资金支持,这些又导致二元经济结构的强化。从三十多年的总体趋势以及与其他省份相比来看,我省城乡二元经济仍比较明显。因此,尽快走出二元结构,实现城乡协调发展是我省当前急需解决的重大问题。本文的主要写作目的就在于对安徽省城乡二元经济结构进行多维测度,再运用计量模型研究其对安徽省经济增长的影响,并据此提出建议性的解决对策。而二元经济结构与经济增长之间的关系一直是众多学者研究的热点话题。本文首先在国内外研究文献的基础上,对经济结构和经济增长的理论进行了定性分析,结果表明二元经济结构的演变与经济增长之间有着紧密的联系,两者之间存在长期互动的关系,二元经济结构的转换会促进经济的不断增长,而不同阶段的经济增长也会带来相应的结构变动。本文在第二章中,根据安徽省统计年鉴,收集和整理了1980-2012年的安徽省GDP总值、农业部门和非农业部门的生产总值和从业人数、城镇居民可支配收入、农村居民人均纯收入、城镇化率等方面的数据,构建了包含二元对比系数、二元结构系数、城乡收入比、城镇化率等指标在内的比较完善的统计指标评价体系,对安徽省自1980到2012年间二元经济结构的演变予以测定,并对不同历史时期的阶段特征进行分析。通过对安徽省城乡二元经济结构的测度分析可知,改革开放30多年来,安徽省城乡二元经济结构演变经历了一个由缓解—加强—缓解的过程,得出当前我省经济结构城乡二元性仍比较显著、城乡二元经济结构转换进程滞后于一般规律等基本判断。并最终从发展战略、户籍等城乡分割的经济体制、城镇化发展滞后等角度分析安徽省城乡二元经济结构形成的条件。本文在第三章中主要通过建立模型对经济增长是否会强化城乡二元经济结构和城乡二元结构的转换能否促进经济增长的问题进行细致分析,运用平稳性检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验对模型进行相应的检验,得出经济增长与城乡二元结构存在长期的动态均衡关系,城乡二元经济结构与经济发展之间具有共同的变动趋势,但是短期内解释变量对被解释变量的影响没有长期那样显著。基于实证分析的基础上,从安徽改革开放以来农村剩余劳动力转移的情况分析城乡二元经济结构的转换对经济增长的影响,并最终得出当前农村剩余劳动力转换的步伐还比较缓慢；要缓解这一现状,一方面要依靠市场的力量,另一方面应该充分发挥政府的推动作用。文章最后在上述分析的基础上,从经济体制改革、农业农村自身发展以及城镇化建设等方面提出了加快农村剩余劳动力转移步伐、促进我省城乡二元经济结构转换的对策和建议,努力实现安徽省经济快速全面发展,完成城乡协调发展的奋斗目标。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China has made great achievements in economic development. However, in the process of rapid economic development, some contradictions and problems are emerging, mainly the disharmony between urban and rural development, the widening gap between urban and rural areas, and the increasing characteristics of the two yuan structure in urban and rural areas. These problems have seriously hindered the sustainable development of the country and the coordination of urban and rural areas. Since the reform and opening up, although the reform and opening up, the rural reform has made remarkable achievements, the urban and rural social and economic structure has undergone profound changes, but the urban and rural two yuan system has not changed radically. Therefore, the improvement of the urban and rural two yuan structure will be the focus of our country's development for a long time.
As the relatively less developed province of Anhui, the unbalanced development of agriculture and non-agricultural industries has emerged in the process of industrialization, and the economic development level of urban and rural areas has a large gap of two yuan economic structure. This gap is not only reflected in the per capita income, but also in employment, consumption, education and other aspects, and is increasingly hindering. In the early period of the reform and opening up, the "two yuan" of the economic structure of our province has been weakened for a period of time. But then the center of gravity has been adjusted to make great efforts to develop industrialization, and the rural and agriculture have made great sacrifices for industrialization, and the rural capital inflows into the city to provide financial support for the development of industrialization. It leads to the strengthening of the economic structure of two yuan. From the overall trend of more than thirty years and compared with other provinces, the economy of two yuan in urban and rural areas in our province is still relatively obvious. Therefore, it is a major problem that our province needs to solve at present to get out of the two yuan structure as soon as possible to achieve coordinated development of urban and rural areas.
The main purpose of this paper is to measure the two yuan economic structure of urban and rural areas in Anhui Province, and then use the measurement model to study its impact on the economic growth of Anhui Province, and to put forward some suggestions to solve the problem. The relationship between the economic structure of the two yuan and the economic growth is a hot topic for many scholars. On the basis of the research literature at home and abroad, the qualitative analysis of the theory of economic structure and economic growth is carried out. The results show that there is a close relationship between the evolution of the two yuan economic structure and the economic growth. There is a long-term interaction relationship between the two. The transformation of the two yuan economic structure will promote the continuous growth of the economy, and the different stages of the economic structure change. Economic growth will also bring corresponding structural changes.
In the second chapter, in the second chapter, according to the statistical yearbook of Anhui Province, the total value of Anhui Province in Anhui Province, the gross income of the agricultural sector and non agricultural sector, the disposable income of urban residents, the per capita net income of the rural residents, the urbanization rate, and so on, are collected and arranged for 1980-2012 years, and the two yuan comparison coefficient and the two yuan structure system are constructed. A relatively perfect statistical index evaluation system, such as urban and rural income ratio, urbanization rate and so on, is used to measure the evolution of two yuan economic structure from 1980 to 2012 in Anhui Province, and analyze the characteristics of different historical periods. Through the measurement and analysis of the economic structure of two yuan in urban and rural areas in Anhui Province, the reform and opening up for more than 30 years The development of urban and rural two yuan economic structure in Anhui province has experienced a process of alleviating, strengthening and alleviating. It is concluded that the urban and rural two yuan in the economic structure of our province is still relatively significant, and the transformation process of urban and rural two yuan economic structure is lagging behind the general rule. This paper analyzes the conditions for the formation of the two dimensional economic structure of Anhui's urban and rural areas from the perspective of lagging development.
In the third chapter, the third chapter makes a detailed analysis of whether economic growth will strengthen the two yuan economic structure of urban and rural areas and whether the conversion of urban and rural two yuan structure can promote economic growth, and uses stability test, cointegration test and Grainger causality test to test the model, and obtains economic growth and urban and rural areas. The two yuan structure has a long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship, the urban and rural two yuan economic structure and economic development have a common trend of change, but the effect of the short-term explanatory variables on the explanatory variables is not so significant for a long time. Based on the empirical analysis, the analysis of the situation of the transfer of rural surplus labor force since the reform and release of Anhui The transformation of urban and rural two yuan economic structure affects the economic growth, and finally draws the slow pace of the transformation of the current rural surplus labor force. To alleviate this situation, on the one hand, we should rely on the strength of the market, on the other hand, the government should give full play to the role of the government.
On the basis of the above analysis, the article puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions on speeding up the transfer of rural surplus labor force and promoting the transformation of the two yuan economic structure in rural and urban areas in the aspects of economic system reform, the development of agricultural and rural areas and the construction of urbanization, so as to realize the rapid and comprehensive development of the economy of Anhui province and complete the coordinated development of urban and rural areas. The aim of the struggle.
【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127

【参考文献】