我国奢侈品消费与经济增长的关系研究
发布时间：2018-07-16 12:05
【摘要】：改革开放打开了奢侈品消费的大门，随着我国人均GDP超过3000美元，奢侈品消费市场进入了高速发展时期。如何看待日益增长的奢侈品消费规模，奢侈品消费与经济增长之间又有着怎样的因果关系和相互作用，成为了学者、社会普遍关注的问题。本文选取了我国1999-2013年经济增长和奢侈品消费的相关数据，，以人均GDP和奢侈品消费总额为序列，建立VAR模型，分析我国奢侈品消费与经济增长的关系。 首先，介绍相关理论分析和方法概述。介绍了奢侈品的相关概念、奢侈品消费的经济学分析以及VAR模型的相关理论。 其次，分析我国经济增长和奢侈品消费的现状。从经济整体发展状况分析了我国经济增长的态势；从市场规模、消费者结构、市场供求结构、销售渠道和消费者心理五方面分析了奢侈品消费的现状。 再次，选取奢侈品消费总额和人均GDP为两个时间序列，通过ADF单位根检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验，建立VAR模型，使用广义脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析，得出的结论是经济增长是奢侈品消费的原因，奢侈品消费对经济增长的促进作用是有限的。 最后，依据经济增长是奢侈品消费的原因这一结论，以经济增长为目标，从企业、政府、社会、消费者四个层面提出以发展本土奢侈品产业为核心的完善奢侈品消费市场的对策建议。
[Abstract]:The reform and opening to the outside world has opened the door of luxury consumption. With the per capita GDP of our country exceeding 3000 US dollars, the luxury consumption market has entered a period of rapid development. How to treat the growing scale of luxury consumption and what kind of causality and interaction between luxury consumption and economic growth has become a problem that scholars and society pay more attention to. Based on the data of China's economic growth and luxury consumption from 1999 to 2013, this paper establishes a VAR model to analyze the relationship between luxury consumption and economic growth, taking GDP per capita and total luxury consumption as a sequence. First of all, the related theoretical analysis and methods are introduced. This paper introduces the related concepts of luxury goods, the economic analysis of luxury consumption and the relevant theory of VAR model. Secondly, it analyzes the current situation of China's economic growth and luxury consumption. The present situation of luxury consumption is analyzed from five aspects: market scale, consumer structure, market supply and demand structure, sales channel and consumer psychology. Thirdly, select the total consumption of luxury goods and GDP per capita as two time series, through ADF unit root test, cointegration test and Granger causality test, establish VAR model, use generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis. The conclusion is that economic growth is the reason of luxury consumption, and luxury consumption has limited effect on economic growth. Finally, according to the conclusion that economic growth is the cause of luxury consumption, economic growth is the goal from enterprises, governments, and society. Four levels of consumers put forward the development of local luxury goods industry as the core to improve the luxury consumption market countermeasures.
【学位授予单位】：燕山大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F723;F124.1
本文编号：2126336
[Abstract]:The reform and opening to the outside world has opened the door of luxury consumption. With the per capita GDP of our country exceeding 3000 US dollars, the luxury consumption market has entered a period of rapid development. How to treat the growing scale of luxury consumption and what kind of causality and interaction between luxury consumption and economic growth has become a problem that scholars and society pay more attention to. Based on the data of China's economic growth and luxury consumption from 1999 to 2013, this paper establishes a VAR model to analyze the relationship between luxury consumption and economic growth, taking GDP per capita and total luxury consumption as a sequence. First of all, the related theoretical analysis and methods are introduced. This paper introduces the related concepts of luxury goods, the economic analysis of luxury consumption and the relevant theory of VAR model. Secondly, it analyzes the current situation of China's economic growth and luxury consumption. The present situation of luxury consumption is analyzed from five aspects: market scale, consumer structure, market supply and demand structure, sales channel and consumer psychology. Thirdly, select the total consumption of luxury goods and GDP per capita as two time series, through ADF unit root test, cointegration test and Granger causality test, establish VAR model, use generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis. The conclusion is that economic growth is the reason of luxury consumption, and luxury consumption has limited effect on economic growth. Finally, according to the conclusion that economic growth is the cause of luxury consumption, economic growth is the goal from enterprises, governments, and society. Four levels of consumers put forward the development of local luxury goods industry as the core to improve the luxury consumption market countermeasures.
【学位授予单位】：燕山大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F723;F124.1
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