中国财政收入占GDP最优比重的研究

发布时间：2018-07-24 16:40

【摘要】：2014年上半年,我国税收收入同比增长8.5%,而GDP的增速只有7.4%,税收收入超GDP增速的现状引人担忧。伴随着以税收为主的财政收入高速增长,我国宏观税负不断提高,人们普遍认为我国宏观税负已然过高。而理论上存在一个最优宏观税负,使得经济增长最大化,因此,当前我们需要研究宏观税负的最优化问题。宏观税负的最优化调整可作为财税体制改革的一个突破口,为建立现代财政制度奠定坚实的基础,也有利于推进国家治理体系和治理能力的现代化。本文首先从财政收入占GDP比重,这一衡量宏观税负规模的指标切入分析,将其划分为小、中、大三种不同的口径,研究这三种口径的财政收入占GDP比重的现状及存在的问题,并指出进一步财税改革的紧迫性和改革方向；其次,运用比较分析的方法研究我国财政收入占GDP比重的国际水平；再次,利用向量自回归模型(VAR)实证分析我国宏观税负与经济增长的关系；最后,采用我国1978-2012年共35年的数据,通过对最优宏观税负估计的Barro模型的拓展,得到我国财政收入占GDP的最优比重为15%左右。本文的创新之处有两点：一是重新定义并统计了我国三种口径的财政收入占GDP比重；二是将财政支出纳入Barro模型,并在其基础上提出国民经济产出水平最大化和全要素生产率最大化两个目标来对财政收入占GDP最优比重进行估计,估计结果更符合我国国情。本文得出的政策建议为：我国财税改革需要借鉴国际经验,以减税、减费等政策为着力点,只有使财政收入占GDP的比重降至15%左右的最优水平,才能使我国经济增长最大化。
[Abstract]:In the first half of 2014, China's tax revenues rose 8.5 percent year on year, while GDP growth was only 7.4 percent. The situation of tax revenue exceeding GDP growth is worrying. With the rapid growth of tax revenue, the macro tax burden of our country has been raised continuously. People generally think that the macro tax burden of our country is already too high. In theory, there is an optimal macro tax burden, which maximizes economic growth. Therefore, we need to study the optimization of macro tax burden. The optimization adjustment of macro tax burden can be regarded as a breakthrough in the reform of the fiscal and taxation system, which lays a solid foundation for the establishment of the modern financial system, and is also conducive to the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity. This paper first analyzes the proportion of fiscal revenue to GDP, which is an index to measure the scale of macro tax burden, and divides it into three different calibres: small, medium and large, and studies the present situation and existing problems of the proportion of fiscal revenue in GDP of these three calibre. It also points out the urgency and reform direction of further fiscal and taxation reform. Secondly, using the method of comparative analysis to study the international level of China's fiscal revenue as a proportion of GDP. Thirdly, Using vector autoregressive model (VAR), this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between macro tax burden and economic growth in China. Finally, using the data of 35 years from 1978 to 2012, the paper extends the Barro model of optimal macro tax burden estimation. The optimal proportion of our fiscal revenue to GDP is about 15%. There are two innovations in this paper: one is to redefine and calculate the proportion of three kinds of fiscal revenue in GDP, the other is to bring fiscal expenditure into the Barro model. On the basis of it, the two goals of maximizing the output level of national economy and maximizing the total factor productivity are put forward to estimate the optimal proportion of fiscal revenue to GDP. The estimated results are more in line with the national conditions of our country. The policy recommendations of this paper are as follows: our country's fiscal and taxation reform should draw lessons from international experience and focus on the policies of tax reduction and fee reduction. Only by reducing the proportion of fiscal revenue to an optimal level of about 15% of GDP, can we maximize the economic growth of our country.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.42;F124

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