越南金融发展影响经济增长的实证研究

发布时间：2018-07-24 20:07

【摘要】：近年来,金融发展与经济增长之间的关系愈来愈受经济学界的关注。目前,国外对金融发展与经济增长的研究较多,大多数经济学者认为金融发展与经济增长之间存在正相关关系,即金融发展能促进经济增长。与国外相比,越南的相关研究比较缺乏。鉴于此,深入研究越南金融发展与经济增长之间的关系,对了解越南的经济发展有一定的参考价值。本文在借鉴国内外现有的理论研究和实证方法的基础上,以越南1995-2014年相关数据为依据,从金融深化程度、金融发展规模、银行发展深度、保险发展程度四个方面考察金融发展与经济增长之间的关系。实证研究采用向量自回归模型,在此基础上对金融发展和经济增长的各变量进行协整检验,并通过建立向量误差修正模型得出各变量的参数估计值,然后进行格兰杰因果关系检验,最后再通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解进行动态效应分析。通过研究得出如下结论:第一,从格兰杰因果关系检验可知,金融发展与经济增长之间呈“供给引导”关系。金融发展对经济增长有促进作用,但经济增长不能带动金融发展。这说明越南金融机构资产的扩展对金融资源的配置效率较高,从而促进经济增长。第二,动态脉冲响应分析结果显示,金融深化率和保险深度在短期内会抑制经济的增长,从长期来看却能促进经济的增长。金融相关率对经济增长带来正面影响,但这种影响在长期内是逐渐减弱的。银行信贷与经济增长在长期存在负面影响,之所以会出现这种情况是因为投资资金主要源于信贷,银行因分配信贷不合理而造成不良贷款现象,这种现象持续时间很长,从而影响经济增长。第三,从贡献度上分析,金融深化程度对经济增长的贡献率最高达34.34%,银行发展深度,金融发展规模次之,保险市场贡献率较少。近几年越南政府实行的货币政策对各类贷款推出优惠政策、调整利率、合理分配资源,从而促进经济增长。保险市场对经济的作用是有限的,在大力发展保险市场的同时,要使市场规范化,避免大的金融风险影响经济增长。最后根据研究所得出的结论,分别从经济层面、管理层面、制度层面对促进越南金融发展与推动经济增长提出相关对策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the relationship between financial development and economic growth has been paid more and more attention by economists. At present, there are many researches on financial development and economic growth in foreign countries. Most economists believe that there is a positive correlation between financial development and economic growth, that is, financial development can promote economic growth. Compared with foreign countries, Vietnam is lack of relevant research. In view of this, in-depth study of the relationship between Vietnam's financial development and economic growth has certain reference value for understanding Vietnam's economic development. Based on the existing theoretical research and empirical methods at home and abroad, based on the relevant data of Vietnam from 1995 to 2014, this paper analyzes the extent of financial deepening, the scale of financial development and the depth of bank development. This paper examines the relationship between financial development and economic growth in four aspects of insurance development. The empirical study adopts vector autoregressive model to test the variables of financial development and economic growth on this basis, and obtains the parameter estimates of each variable by establishing vector error correction model. Then Granger causality test is carried out, and the dynamic effect is analyzed by impulse response function and variance decomposition. The conclusions are as follows: first, Granger causality test shows that the relationship between financial development and economic growth is supply-oriented. The financial development has the promotion function to the economic growth, but the economic growth cannot drive the financial development. This indicates that the expansion of the assets of Vietnamese financial institutions is more efficient in allocating financial resources, thus promoting economic growth. Second, the results of dynamic impulse response analysis show that financial deepening rate and insurance depth can restrain economic growth in the short term, but can promote economic growth in the long run. Financial correlation rates have a positive impact on economic growth, but this effect is gradually weakening in the long run. The negative effects of bank credit and economic growth in the long run are caused by the fact that the investment funds are mainly derived from credit, and the phenomenon of non-performing loans caused by the unreasonable distribution of credit by banks has been going on for a long time. Thus affecting economic growth. Thirdly, the contribution of financial deepening to economic growth is 34.34%, the depth of bank development, the scale of financial development is the second, and the contribution rate of insurance market is less. The monetary policy implemented by the Vietnamese government in recent years has introduced preferential policies for all kinds of loans, adjusted interest rates, rationally allocated resources, and thus promoted economic growth. The role of insurance market to the economy is limited. While developing insurance market vigorously, we should standardize the market and avoid the influence of large financial risks on economic growth. Finally, according to the conclusions of the study, from the economic level, the management level, the system level to promote the Vietnamese financial development and promote economic growth put forward the relevant countermeasures.
【学位授予单位】：重庆师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F833.33;F124.1

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