西北地区能源碳排放的影响因素对比研究
发布时间：2018-08-17 16:20
【摘要】：西北地区正处于工业化发展的中期,大量研究表明,这个时期是资源、能源消耗增长加快的时期,生态破坏、环境污染、资源短缺成为制约经济发展的瓶颈。西北地区作为欠发达地区,目前不仅面临生态瓶颈,而且肩负全面建成小康社会的重任。如何不走发达国家“先污染、后治理”的覆辙,如何实现经济发展和社会进步,低碳发展作为一种崭新的经济发展方式和能源消费方式,成为必然选择。 本文对西北地区(包括陕西省、甘肃省、宁夏回族自治区、青海省、新疆维吾尔自治区)1990-2012年间的能源碳排放、人均碳排放等进行测算,应用脱钩模型,比较碳排放与经济发展间的动态变化关系和趋势；应用STIRPAT模型、采用岭回归分析方法、通过SPSS19.0软件研究人口、经济发展水平、能源强度、能源结构、产业结构、城市化率等人文因素对能源碳排放的影响,得出各省区能源碳排放的主要影响因素及贡献率：剖析和比较西北地区能源碳排放的影响因素差异,为西北地区未来低碳经济发展提供有针对性的对策和建议。 分析结果表明：1)研究期内,西北地区经济逐年增长。脱钩弹性分析表明,五地大多数年份弹性系数大于0,即呈现相对脱钩或挂钩状态,说明碳排放量增长与经济增长之间存在一定的同步关系。脱钩指数分析结果表明,陕西省和甘肃省能源碳排放与经济增长的关系在疏远,青海省能源碳排放与经济增长的关系波动大,宁夏回族自治区能源碳排放与经济增长的关系紧密,新疆维吾尔族自治区能源碳排放与经济增长的关系有加深趋势。2)陕西省能源碳排放的显著影响因素为产业结构、人口和经济发展水平；甘肃省能源碳排放的显著影响因素为城市化率、经济发展水平和产业结构；宁夏回族自治区能源碳排放的显著影响因素为经济发展水平、人口和城市化率；青海省能源碳排放的显著影响因素为人口、经济发展水平和城市化率；新疆维吾尔族自治区能源碳排放的显著影响因素为经济发展水平、城市化率和人口。3)经济发展水平是西北地区共同的主要影响因素,说明西北地区经济增长对能源消耗依赖性很强。4)西北五地均未出现(倒“U”型)环境库兹涅茨曲线,未来减排压力很大。
[Abstract]:Northwest China is in the middle stage of industrialization. A large number of studies show that this period is a period of rapid growth of resources and energy consumption, ecological destruction, environmental pollution and shortage of resources become the bottleneck of restricting economic development. As an underdeveloped region, Northwest China is not only facing ecological bottleneck, but also shouldering the important task of building a well-off society in an all-round way. How to avoid the rut of "pollution first, then harness" in developed countries, how to realize economic development and social progress, and how to develop low-carbon as a new mode of economic development and energy consumption has become an inevitable choice. In this paper, the energy carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions in Northwest China (including Shaanxi Province, Gansu Province, Ningxia Hui Autonomous region, Qinghai Province, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region) from 1990 to 2012 were calculated, and the decoupling model was applied. Comparing the dynamic relationship and trend between carbon emissions and economic development, using STIRPAT model, using ridge regression analysis method, using SPSS19.0 software to study population, economic development level, energy intensity, energy structure, industrial structure, The influence of human factors such as urbanization rate on energy carbon emission is obtained. The main influencing factors and contribution rate of energy carbon emission in provinces and regions are analyzed and compared, and the difference of influencing factors of energy carbon emission in Northwest China is analyzed and compared. To provide countermeasures and suggestions for the future development of low carbon economy in Northwest China. The results show that during the period of study, the economy of Northwest China has been increasing year by year. The analysis of decoupling elasticity shows that the elastic coefficient is greater than 0 in most years in the five regions, that is, the relative decoupling or hook state, which indicates that there is a certain synchronous relationship between the growth of carbon emissions and economic growth. The results of decoupling index analysis show that the relationship between energy carbon emissions and economic growth in Shaanxi and Gansu provinces is estranged, and the relationship between energy carbon emissions and economic growth in Qinghai Province fluctuates greatly. The relationship between energy carbon emissions and economic growth in Ningxia Hui Autonomous region is close, and the relationship between energy carbon emissions and economic growth in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region has a deepening trend .2) the significant influence factor of energy carbon emissions in Shaanxi Province is the industrial structure. The significant influencing factors of energy carbon emission in Gansu Province are urbanization rate, economic development level and industrial structure, and the significant influence factors of energy carbon emission in Ningxia Hui Autonomous region are economic development level. Population and urbanization rate; significant influence factors of energy and carbon emission in Qinghai Province are population, economic development level and urbanization rate; significant influence factors of energy carbon emission in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region are economic development level, Urbanization rate and population (.3) level of economic development are the common main influencing factors in Northwest China, which indicates that the economic growth in Northwest China is highly dependent on energy consumption. 4) the environmental Kuznets curve (inverted "U" type) has not appeared in the five regions of Northwest China. The pressure to reduce emissions in the future is great.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X24;F124
[Abstract]:Northwest China is in the middle stage of industrialization. A large number of studies show that this period is a period of rapid growth of resources and energy consumption, ecological destruction, environmental pollution and shortage of resources become the bottleneck of restricting economic development. As an underdeveloped region, Northwest China is not only facing ecological bottleneck, but also shouldering the important task of building a well-off society in an all-round way. How to avoid the rut of "pollution first, then harness" in developed countries, how to realize economic development and social progress, and how to develop low-carbon as a new mode of economic development and energy consumption has become an inevitable choice. In this paper, the energy carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions in Northwest China (including Shaanxi Province, Gansu Province, Ningxia Hui Autonomous region, Qinghai Province, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region) from 1990 to 2012 were calculated, and the decoupling model was applied. Comparing the dynamic relationship and trend between carbon emissions and economic development, using STIRPAT model, using ridge regression analysis method, using SPSS19.0 software to study population, economic development level, energy intensity, energy structure, industrial structure, The influence of human factors such as urbanization rate on energy carbon emission is obtained. The main influencing factors and contribution rate of energy carbon emission in provinces and regions are analyzed and compared, and the difference of influencing factors of energy carbon emission in Northwest China is analyzed and compared. To provide countermeasures and suggestions for the future development of low carbon economy in Northwest China. The results show that during the period of study, the economy of Northwest China has been increasing year by year. The analysis of decoupling elasticity shows that the elastic coefficient is greater than 0 in most years in the five regions, that is, the relative decoupling or hook state, which indicates that there is a certain synchronous relationship between the growth of carbon emissions and economic growth. The results of decoupling index analysis show that the relationship between energy carbon emissions and economic growth in Shaanxi and Gansu provinces is estranged, and the relationship between energy carbon emissions and economic growth in Qinghai Province fluctuates greatly. The relationship between energy carbon emissions and economic growth in Ningxia Hui Autonomous region is close, and the relationship between energy carbon emissions and economic growth in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region has a deepening trend .2) the significant influence factor of energy carbon emissions in Shaanxi Province is the industrial structure. The significant influencing factors of energy carbon emission in Gansu Province are urbanization rate, economic development level and industrial structure, and the significant influence factors of energy carbon emission in Ningxia Hui Autonomous region are economic development level. Population and urbanization rate; significant influence factors of energy and carbon emission in Qinghai Province are population, economic development level and urbanization rate; significant influence factors of energy carbon emission in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region are economic development level, Urbanization rate and population (.3) level of economic development are the common main influencing factors in Northwest China, which indicates that the economic growth in Northwest China is highly dependent on energy consumption. 4) the environmental Kuznets curve (inverted "U" type) has not appeared in the five regions of Northwest China. The pressure to reduce emissions in the future is great.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X24;F124
【参考文献】
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