考虑碳排放峰值的天津市产业发展策略研究

发布时间：2018-08-21 07:34

【摘要】：我国在低碳发展上面临着来自于国内外的强大压力,在国际上,我国作为世界上温室气体排放总量最大的国家,在国际气候谈判中一直处于被动状态。而在国内方面,我国的经济发展越来越受到资源和环境的制约,资源短缺,环境承载力有限成为我国国情新的基本特征,近年来雾霾天气越来越受到国家上下的关注。二氧化碳排放的增长受到能源结构、能源强度、GDP增长、人口等多方面因素的影响。研究碳排放达峰问题,首先要找出对碳排放起到决定性作用的因素。本文把环境库兹涅茨曲线理论引入到二氧化碳排放的研究中,将存在二氧化碳库兹涅茨曲线的国家和地区,视为碳排放真正达到峰值并对其进行分析。运用因素分解法分析能源结构、能源强度、GDP、人口四个因素在他们碳排放达峰过程中的作用。从而发现能源强度是碳排放达到峰值的最强作用因素。因为能源强度主要受到产业结构和部门技术进步两方面的影响,因而对天津市的能源强度进行因素分解。发现天津市的部门强度下降是能源强度降低的主要作用因素。而在对天津和北京两地的能源强度进行对比分解时,发现产业结构才是北京市能源强度低于天津市的主要作用因素。所以,短期来看能源强度下降要依靠技术进步,加强管理。长期来看,能源强度主要依靠产业结构不多优化升级。因此,碳排放达峰问题,最主要的落脚点就是如何不断优化产业结构,如何不断推进产业技术进步。针对以上问题,本文对天津市的产业发展提出了五点发展策略,包括加快高耗能行业产量达峰或转移,促进第三产业发展,有针对性的进行节能技术推广。
[Abstract]:China is faced with strong pressure from home and abroad in low-carbon development. Internationally, as the largest greenhouse gas emission country in the world, China has been in a passive state in international climate negotiations. At home, the economic development of our country is more and more restricted by resources and environment. The shortage of resources and the limited carrying capacity of environment have become the new basic characteristics of China's national conditions. In recent years, the weather of haze has attracted more and more attention from all over the country. The increase of carbon dioxide emission is affected by energy structure, energy intensity and GDP growth, population and other factors. To study the problem of carbon emission peak, we must first find out the factors that play a decisive role in carbon emissions. In this paper, the theory of environmental Kuznets curve is introduced into the study of carbon dioxide emission. The countries and regions with carbon dioxide Kuznets curve are regarded as the real peak of carbon emissions and analyzed. Factor decomposition method is used to analyze the effects of energy structure, energy intensity and population on their carbon emission peak. It is found that energy intensity is the strongest factor of carbon emission peak. Because the energy intensity is mainly affected by the industrial structure and the technical progress of the departments, the energy intensity of Tianjin is decomposed. It is found that the decrease of sector strength is the main factor of decreasing energy intensity in Tianjin. When comparing the energy intensity between Tianjin and Beijing, it is found that the industrial structure is the main factor that the energy intensity in Beijing is lower than that in Tianjin. Therefore, in the short term, the decline in energy intensity depends on technological progress and management. In the long run, energy intensity mainly depends on the industrial structure is not much optimization and upgrading. Therefore, the most important problem of carbon emission peak is how to optimize the industrial structure and how to continuously promote the industrial technological progress. In view of the above problems, this paper puts forward five development strategies for the industrial development of Tianjin, including accelerating the output of high energy consuming industry to peak or transferring, promoting the development of the tertiary industry, and popularizing energy saving technology.
【学位授予单位】：天津科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127

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