美国与东北亚国际收支再平衡路径研究
发布时间：2018-08-26 21:25
【摘要】：2008年全球金融危机使世界经济失衡成为学者讨论的热点问题。同时,为了减少危机带来的冲击、尽快从危机中恢复经济增长,世界经济再平衡及其路径选择成为众多学者和决策者关注的焦点,具有重要的理论和现实意义。由于国际收支失衡是世界经济失衡的重要组成部分,因此国际收支再平衡成为本文研究世界经济再平衡路径的切入点。同时,由于美国和东北亚经济体是国际收支失衡的典型代表,因此本文以美国、中国、日本和韩国为研究对象,分析这些国家国际收支失衡调整路径的选择及其依据,为中国的国际收支政策调整提供参考意见。 本文通过理论回顾和实证研究,认为经济体内部经济结构、经济体之间的发展差异是造成世界经济失衡的重要原因。因此,国际收支失衡作为世界经济失衡的代表,要对其进行政策调整必须从内部经济和外部经济两方面入手,并且以内部经济调整为主。从美国角度看,依照美国内部经济政策的模拟结果,量化宽松政策、汇率政策对美国国际收支的改善起到积极作用,而降低企业所得税、降低制造业进口关税的政策恶化了美国国际收支,但后两种政策有利于美国内部经济特别是制造业的恢复。而美国外部经济调整政策以TTP和TTIP为主,加入这两种协议虽然有利于贸易赤字的减少,但效果极为有限,更明显的效果体现为对美国内部经济的促进作用。因此,美国国际收支再平衡的路径并不是以直接减少赤字为主要目标,而是提高美国就业率、促进其内部经济增长,并通过政策组合的方式平衡调整过程中过量的国际收支赤字。从日本的角度看,在日本近期出现罕见贸易赤字的情况下,其国际收支再平衡调整目标以保持国际收支盈余为主,具体政策路径为无限量量化宽松政策和汇率贬值政策,这两项政策对提高日本国际收支盈余作用显著。同时,为了应对危机、刺激内部经济,日本还推出降低公司税、提高政府支出的方法,虽然这些政策会增加国际收支逆差,但联合货币政策抵消了全部逆差,同时有利于促进日本内部经济增长。从日本外部政策来看,加入TPP和RCEP效果相似,只会略微增加其贸易逆差,同时由于对日本福利水平和GDP的增长存在巨大的促进作用,将促使日本加入这两项协议。从韩国角度看,其国际收支再平衡路径与美国相似,即并不追求国际收支盈余的增加,而重点在于对内部经济的刺激。在韩国外部经济政策中,TPP和RCEP对韩国内部经济的刺激作用明显,却都会造成韩国的净出口减少。从中国的角度看,中国国际收支再平衡的目标显然以减少顺差、刺激内部经济增长为主。但根据中国财政与货币政策组合的模拟效果看,与这一目标背道而驰,因此中国的国际收支再平衡路径应该减少货币供给、提高政府支出,引导人民币汇率缓慢升值。从中国外部经济角度看,在适度实行保护性关税的条件下加入中日韩FTP是促进中国国际收支再平衡的有力措施之一,而对于TPP,不加入将使其内外经济都受损,只有在韩国加入且完全削减关税时才与中国国际收支调节的目标一致。 本文共分六章：第一章为绪论。主要阐述论文的研究背景和研究意义,并对相关研究进行文献综述,指出论文的创新点与不足。第二章介绍世界经济失衡和再平衡的相关理论。旨在从理论角度说明内部经济对外部经济失衡的影响及调整作用。同时简单介绍了GTAP模型的研究方法。第三章为世界经济失衡的主要表现与原因分析。通过对世界经济失衡现状的描述和实证分析,从现实角度论证了世界经济失衡的原因以及内部经济对世界经济失衡的作用。第四章分析美国国际收支再平衡的路径选择,通过总结美国在危机期间和危机后推出的内外调整政策,模拟计算这些政策对国际收支的影响,以此作为美国国际收支再平衡路径选择的依据。第五章分析日韩国际收支再平衡的路径选择,结构与第五章相似。第六章分析中国国际收支再平衡的路径选择。总结了危机以来中国推出的各种经济政策,并计算其对国际收支产生的经济效应,然后以此作为中国国际收支再平衡路径选择的依据,提出了相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:At the same time, in order to reduce the impact of the crisis and restore economic growth from the crisis as soon as possible, the world economic rebalancing and its path choice have become the focus of attention of many scholars and policy makers, which has important theoretical and practical significance. The imbalance is an important part of the world economic imbalance, so the balance of payments rebalancing becomes the entry point of this paper to study the path of the world economic rebalancing. The choice and basis of the adjustment path of branch imbalance provide reference for China's adjustment of the balance of payments policy.
Through theoretical review and empirical research, this paper holds that the internal economic structure of the economy and the development differences between the economies are the important reasons for the imbalance of the world economy. From the perspective of the United States, according to the simulation results of the internal economic policies of the United States, quantitative easing policy and exchange rate policy play a positive role in improving the balance of payments of the United States, while the policies of reducing enterprise income tax and manufacturing import tariffs worsen the balance of payments of the United States, but the latter two policies are conducive to the internal economy of the United States. The US external economic adjustment policy is mainly TTP and TTIP. Although the two agreements are conducive to reducing the trade deficit, the effect is very limited, and the more obvious effect is reflected in the promotion of the US internal economy. Therefore, the path of rebalancing the US balance of payments is not to reduce the deficit directly. The main objective is to increase the employment rate of the United States, promote its internal economic growth, and balance excessive balance of payments deficits through a policy mix. At the same time, in order to cope with the crisis and stimulate the internal economy, Japan has also introduced ways to reduce corporate tax and increase government expenditure. Although these policies will increase the balance of payments deficit, but the United Monetary Administration. From Japan's external policy point of view, the effect of joining TPP and RCEP is similar, only slightly increasing its trade deficit. At the same time, Japan will join the two agreements because of the huge promotion effect on Japan's welfare level and GDP growth. The path of rebalancing is similar to that of the United States, that is, it does not seek to increase the balance of payments surplus, but focuses on stimulating the internal economy. However, according to the simulation results of China's fiscal and monetary policy combination, it is contrary to this goal. Therefore, China's balance of payments rebalancing path should reduce money supply, increase government expenditure, and guide the RMB exchange rate to appreciate slowly. It can be seen that joining the FTP of China, Japan and South Korea under the condition of moderate protective tariffs is one of the effective measures to promote the rebalancing of China's balance of payments. For TPP, not joining will damage both its domestic and foreign economies. Only when South Korea joins and cuts tariffs completely will it be consistent with the goal of China's balance of payments adjustment.
This paper is divided into six chapters: The first chapter is the introduction. It mainly expounds the research background and significance of the paper, and summarizes the relevant research, pointing out the innovation and shortcomings of the paper. The second chapter introduces the related theories of world economic imbalance and rebalancing, aiming at explaining the influence and adjustment of internal economy on external economic imbalance from a theoretical point of view. At the same time, it briefly introduces the research methods of GTAP model. Chapter 3 is the main manifestations and causes of world economic imbalances. Through the description and empirical analysis of the current situation of world economic imbalances, it demonstrates the causes of world economic imbalances and the role of the internal economy in the world economic imbalances. By summarizing the internal and external adjustment policies introduced by the United States during and after the crisis, this paper simulates and calculates the impact of these policies on the balance of payments as the basis for the choice of the path of the U.S. balance of payments rebalancing. Chapter 6 analyzes the path choice of China's balance of payments rebalancing, summarizes the various economic policies put forward by China since the crisis, and calculates their economic effects on the balance of payments, and then takes this as the basis for the path choice of China's balance of payments rebalancing, puts forward relevant policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F113
，
本文编号：2206205
[Abstract]:At the same time, in order to reduce the impact of the crisis and restore economic growth from the crisis as soon as possible, the world economic rebalancing and its path choice have become the focus of attention of many scholars and policy makers, which has important theoretical and practical significance. The imbalance is an important part of the world economic imbalance, so the balance of payments rebalancing becomes the entry point of this paper to study the path of the world economic rebalancing. The choice and basis of the adjustment path of branch imbalance provide reference for China's adjustment of the balance of payments policy.
Through theoretical review and empirical research, this paper holds that the internal economic structure of the economy and the development differences between the economies are the important reasons for the imbalance of the world economy. From the perspective of the United States, according to the simulation results of the internal economic policies of the United States, quantitative easing policy and exchange rate policy play a positive role in improving the balance of payments of the United States, while the policies of reducing enterprise income tax and manufacturing import tariffs worsen the balance of payments of the United States, but the latter two policies are conducive to the internal economy of the United States. The US external economic adjustment policy is mainly TTP and TTIP. Although the two agreements are conducive to reducing the trade deficit, the effect is very limited, and the more obvious effect is reflected in the promotion of the US internal economy. Therefore, the path of rebalancing the US balance of payments is not to reduce the deficit directly. The main objective is to increase the employment rate of the United States, promote its internal economic growth, and balance excessive balance of payments deficits through a policy mix. At the same time, in order to cope with the crisis and stimulate the internal economy, Japan has also introduced ways to reduce corporate tax and increase government expenditure. Although these policies will increase the balance of payments deficit, but the United Monetary Administration. From Japan's external policy point of view, the effect of joining TPP and RCEP is similar, only slightly increasing its trade deficit. At the same time, Japan will join the two agreements because of the huge promotion effect on Japan's welfare level and GDP growth. The path of rebalancing is similar to that of the United States, that is, it does not seek to increase the balance of payments surplus, but focuses on stimulating the internal economy. However, according to the simulation results of China's fiscal and monetary policy combination, it is contrary to this goal. Therefore, China's balance of payments rebalancing path should reduce money supply, increase government expenditure, and guide the RMB exchange rate to appreciate slowly. It can be seen that joining the FTP of China, Japan and South Korea under the condition of moderate protective tariffs is one of the effective measures to promote the rebalancing of China's balance of payments. For TPP, not joining will damage both its domestic and foreign economies. Only when South Korea joins and cuts tariffs completely will it be consistent with the goal of China's balance of payments adjustment.
This paper is divided into six chapters: The first chapter is the introduction. It mainly expounds the research background and significance of the paper, and summarizes the relevant research, pointing out the innovation and shortcomings of the paper. The second chapter introduces the related theories of world economic imbalance and rebalancing, aiming at explaining the influence and adjustment of internal economy on external economic imbalance from a theoretical point of view. At the same time, it briefly introduces the research methods of GTAP model. Chapter 3 is the main manifestations and causes of world economic imbalances. Through the description and empirical analysis of the current situation of world economic imbalances, it demonstrates the causes of world economic imbalances and the role of the internal economy in the world economic imbalances. By summarizing the internal and external adjustment policies introduced by the United States during and after the crisis, this paper simulates and calculates the impact of these policies on the balance of payments as the basis for the choice of the path of the U.S. balance of payments rebalancing. Chapter 6 analyzes the path choice of China's balance of payments rebalancing, summarizes the various economic policies put forward by China since the crisis, and calculates their economic effects on the balance of payments, and then takes this as the basis for the path choice of China's balance of payments rebalancing, puts forward relevant policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F113
，
本文编号：2206205
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