甘肃省人口结构演变与区域经济关联研究

发布时间：2018-09-10 21:32

【摘要】：人口是经济社会发展的重要因素之一,多年来随着我国计划生育政策效果的逐渐显现,当前人口发展的主要矛盾已由人口数量转向人口结构。严重少子化、快速老龄化、劳动力供给不足、性别比失衡等人口结构问题已经成为我国经济可持续发展的主要制约因素。人口结构的均衡化有利于促进经济的快速发展及社会稳定;人口结构的扭曲将制约社会经济结构的布局、削弱经济发展动力。因此,必须对人口结构与区域经济发展的内在关系进行深入研究,进而为二者相互协调发展提供理科学的理论依据。本文通过甘肃省人口总量、性别结构、年龄结构、城乡结构、产业结构及文化结构的演变,分析甘肃省人口结构空间分布差异特征。根据甘肃省独特的地理环境、经济发展条件,运用灰色关联分析模型,对甘肃省人口结构与区域经济关联关系进行定量研究,同时分析其耦合关系的时空差异特征,最后就甘肃省人口结构与区域经济协调发展提出对策建议。本文得出的主要结论如下:(1)甘肃省人口分布具有极强的空间依赖性,并呈现明显的空间集聚与不均衡性;人口性别结构相对稳定;年龄结构失衡,少儿人口减少,老龄化加速,以快速浅度老龄化和慢速浅度老龄化区域为主,老年人口分布呈现地域差异性;人口城镇化进程加快,但与全国水平差距较大,以低人口城镇化与中低人口城镇化为主,且县域空间差异明显;人口产业结构分布更加合理;人口文化教育水平显著增强,人口综合质量稳步提升。(2)甘肃省人口结构对区域经济系统各指标间的关联度均高于0.75,属于中度及高度关联;其中中老年人口、劳动力人口、大专及以上学历人口、第二、三产业人口、城镇人口对区域经济的关联度均高于0.85,属于高度关联。区域经济指标对人口结构的关联度高于0.80,属于中度偏高关联,经济促进人口结构的进一步优化。(3)甘肃省县域人口结构与区域经济综合耦合度存在明显空间差异;2000年到2014年其耦合程度由低水平耦合向协调型耦合发展;但中部与河西地区拮抗型区域逐渐增多,人口结构与区域经济发展的相互制约呈现加强趋势。(4)从1994年到2014年,甘肃省人口结构与区域经济耦合度在时序0.795与0.863之间波动;表现为由低水平耦合向协调和拮抗型发展,人口与经济相互依赖性进一步加强。
[Abstract]:Population is one of the important factors of economic and social development. With the gradual appearance of the effect of family planning policy in China for many years, the main contradiction of population development has shifted from population quantity to population structure. The balance of population structure is conducive to the rapid development of economy and social stability; the distortion of population structure will restrict the distribution of social economic structure and weaken the motive force of economic development. Based on the evolution of population, sex structure, age structure, urban-rural structure, industrial structure and cultural structure in Gansu Province, this paper analyzes the spatial distribution characteristics of population structure in Gansu Province. This paper makes a quantitative study of the relationship between population structure and regional economy in Su Province, and analyzes the spatial and temporal characteristics of the coupling relationship. Finally, it puts forward some suggestions on the coordinated development of population structure and regional economy in Gansu Province. Agglomeration and imbalance; population gender structure is relatively stable; age structure is unbalanced, the population of children is reduced, and aging is accelerated, mainly in areas of rapid shallow aging and slow shallow aging, and the distribution of the elderly population shows regional differences; the process of population urbanization is accelerated, but there is a big gap with the national level, with low-population Urbanization and moderate to low-population urbanization. The low population urbanization is dominant, and the county spatial difference is obvious; the distribution of population industrial structure is more reasonable; the level of population culture and education is significantly enhanced, and the comprehensive quality of population is steadily improved. (2) The correlation degree between population structure of Gansu Province and various indicators of regional economic system is higher than 0.75, which belongs to moderate and high correlation; the middle-aged and elderly population, labor. Secondly, the population of tertiary industry and urban population are highly related to the regional economy. The correlation degree of regional economic indicators to the population structure is higher than 0.80, which is moderately high. Economy promotes the further optimization of population structure. (3) The population structure of county and regional economy in Gansu Province From 2000 to 2014, the coupling degree of Gansu Province changed from low-level coupling to coordinated coupling. However, the antagonistic regions in the central and Hexi regions increased gradually, and the mutual restriction between population structure and regional economic development showed a trend of strengthening. (4) From 1994 to 2014, the population structure and regional economic development in Gansu Province were strengthened. Coupling degree fluctuates between 0.795 and 0.863 in time series, which shows the development from low level coupling to coordination and antagonism, and the interdependence between population and economy is further strengthened.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.2;F127

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