中国居民消费率与城镇化率的“U型曲线”关系分析

发布时间：2018-09-12 19:40

【摘要】：赶超型经济体在其城镇化的高速发展阶段,其居民消费占GDP比重(居民消费率)随城镇化率上升而下降。在进入城镇化发展的成熟阶段后,居民消费率才随城镇化率上升而转降为升。从1984年起,伴随着城镇化率的提高,中国居民消费率也呈现不升反降的态势。那么,城镇化率与居民消费率之间这种“U型曲线”关系是否是一国经济运行中的一条普遍规律?是什么因素导致了“U型曲线”关系的产生?现阶段,中国提高城镇化率能否成为扭转居民消费率持续下降的一条重要途径?本文基于城乡两部门模型证明了居民消费率与城镇化率的“U型曲线”关系；并提出人均收入水平提高、人口结构变化、城乡收入差距变化、城镇固定资本形成总额占比的变动,四者所产生的合力大小与方向造就了城镇化率与居民消费率之间的“U型曲线”关系。进一步,基于187个国家及中国31个省份面板数据所进行的实证分析,验证了“U型曲线”假说；通过建立协整及误差修正模型发现中国居民消费率、城乡收入比、人均收入以及固定资本形成总额占比之间存在长期稳定关系。本文提出,在现有的城乡二元体制及政府投资主导的粗放型城镇化发展模式下,即便在城镇化率提高超过70%之后,中国居民消费率依然有可能保持在35%的低水平上。因此,下一阶段单纯提高中国城镇化率不能扭转居民消费率下降的态势,必须要把城镇化放在改革城乡二元体制、转变城市投资主体、深化市场改革及促进产业结构升级的大框架下。
[Abstract]:In the stage of rapid development of urbanization, the proportion of resident consumption to GDP (resident consumption rate) of catch-up economy decreases with the increase of urbanization rate. After entering the mature stage of urbanization, the consumption rate of residents changes to increase with the increase of urbanization rate. Since 1984, with the increase of urbanization rate, the consumption rate of Chinese residents has been decreasing instead of rising. So, is this "U-shaped curve" relationship between urbanization rate and resident consumption rate a universal rule in a country's economic operation? What is the cause of the "U-curve" relationship? At this stage, will China's urbanization rate become an important way to reverse the continued decline in the consumption rate of residents? Based on the urban and rural two-sector model, this paper proves the "U-shaped curve" relationship between the consumption rate and the urbanization rate, and points out that the income gap between urban and rural areas changes with the increase of per capita income level, the change of population structure, and the change of urban-rural income gap With the change of the proportion of total fixed capital formation in cities and towns, the degree and direction of the resultant force created a "U-curve" relationship between the urbanization rate and the consumption rate of the residents. Furthermore, based on the panel data of 187 countries and 31 provinces in China, the hypothesis of "U-curve" is verified, and the consumption rate and urban-rural income ratio of Chinese residents are found by establishing cointegration and error correction models. There is a long-term stable relationship between per capita income and the proportion of total fixed capital formation. This paper suggests that under the existing urban-rural dual system and the extensive urbanization mode led by government investment, even after the urbanization rate has increased by more than 70%, the consumption rate of Chinese residents is still likely to remain at a low level of 35%. Therefore, raising China's urbanization rate alone in the next stage cannot reverse the decline in the consumption rate of residents. It is necessary to put urbanization in the reform of the urban-rural dual system and to change the main body of urban investment. Deepen market reform and promote industrial structure upgrade under the big frame.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F126.1;F299.21

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