河北省产业结构调整与经济增长关系研究
发布时间：2018-09-13 09:50
【摘要】：规范的产业结构对经济增长起到某种程度的的促进作用，而经济增长可使人均收入增加，因此引起了人们需求的增加，，从而引起产业结构的再次调整和优化。河北省作为传统农业大省，随着改革开放的进行与步伐的加快，河北省的经济得到巨大的发展，其在东部地区经济发展中扮演着越来越重要的角色。目前对河北省产业结构调整与经济增长之间关系的研究大多停留在定性阶段，而进行定量研究则更具有实际意义。因此本文从实证角度出发，结合理论与数据对河北省产业结构调整与经济增长之间的关系进行定性与定量的研究。 本文在总结国内外相关研究文献基础之上，对产业结构与经济增长关系进行理论分析，基于河北省的实际数据，运用ADF单位根对GDP、产业结构进行平稳性检验，建立VAR模型，再基于VAR模型进行协整关系检验和模型误差修正来检验和验证河北省产业结构调整与经济增长量之间的关系，并用脉冲响应函数分析经济增量对三大产业数值构成冲击的反应以及产值结构对GDP冲击的反应，同时进行方差分解来评价不同结构冲击的重要性。最后得出结论：正常情况下产业结构和变动都会对经济增长产生正反方向的影响，在河北省的环境下，第二产业在仍待发展的此地区占有巨大，由于第三产业的蓬勃发展，第二产业在河北经济发展中的作用逐渐弱化，但是工业化程度较高的现实也反映了河北省产业结构不合理的现状。由此，论文从加快农业发展，继续推动工业化进程和努力扩大第三产业规模几个方面提出了相关的政策和建议。本文的创新点为：运用ADF单位根对GDP、产业结构进行平稳性检验，建立河北省产业结构与经济增长VAR模型。
[Abstract]:The standardized industrial structure can promote the economic growth to some extent, and the economic growth can increase the per capita income, thus causing the increase of people's demand, thus causing the readjustment and optimization of the industrial structure. As a large traditional agricultural province, with the development of reform and opening up, the economy of Hebei Province has been greatly developed, which plays a more and more important role in the economic development of the eastern region. At present, the research on the relationship between industrial structure adjustment and economic growth in Hebei Province is mostly in the qualitative stage, while the quantitative study is of practical significance. Therefore, this paper makes a qualitative and quantitative study on the relationship between industrial structure adjustment and economic growth in Hebei Province from the perspective of empirical analysis, combined with theory and data. On the basis of summarizing the domestic and foreign related research literature, this paper analyzes the relationship between industrial structure and economic growth theoretically. Based on the actual data of Hebei Province, using ADF unit root to test the stability of GDP, industrial structure, the VAR model is established. Based on the VAR model, the co-integration relationship test and model error correction are carried out to test and verify the relationship between industrial structure adjustment and economic growth in Hebei Province. The impulse response function is used to analyze the response of economic increment to the impact of the three industries and the response of the output structure to the impact of GDP. At the same time, variance decomposition is used to evaluate the importance of different structural shocks. Finally, the conclusion is drawn: under normal circumstances, both industrial structure and changes will have a positive and negative impact on economic growth. In the environment of Hebei Province, the secondary industry occupies a great deal in this area, where the development of the third industry is still pending, because of the vigorous development of the tertiary industry. The role of secondary industry in Hebei's economic development is gradually weakened, but the reality of higher industrialization also reflects the unreasonable present situation of Hebei's industrial structure. Therefore, the paper puts forward some relevant policies and suggestions from several aspects, such as speeding up the development of agriculture, continuing to promote the process of industrialization and striving to expand the scale of the tertiary industry. The innovation of this paper is to use ADF unit root to test the stability of GDP, industrial structure, and to establish the VAR model of Hebei Province's industrial structure and economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F121.3;F127
本文编号：2240824
[Abstract]:The standardized industrial structure can promote the economic growth to some extent, and the economic growth can increase the per capita income, thus causing the increase of people's demand, thus causing the readjustment and optimization of the industrial structure. As a large traditional agricultural province, with the development of reform and opening up, the economy of Hebei Province has been greatly developed, which plays a more and more important role in the economic development of the eastern region. At present, the research on the relationship between industrial structure adjustment and economic growth in Hebei Province is mostly in the qualitative stage, while the quantitative study is of practical significance. Therefore, this paper makes a qualitative and quantitative study on the relationship between industrial structure adjustment and economic growth in Hebei Province from the perspective of empirical analysis, combined with theory and data. On the basis of summarizing the domestic and foreign related research literature, this paper analyzes the relationship between industrial structure and economic growth theoretically. Based on the actual data of Hebei Province, using ADF unit root to test the stability of GDP, industrial structure, the VAR model is established. Based on the VAR model, the co-integration relationship test and model error correction are carried out to test and verify the relationship between industrial structure adjustment and economic growth in Hebei Province. The impulse response function is used to analyze the response of economic increment to the impact of the three industries and the response of the output structure to the impact of GDP. At the same time, variance decomposition is used to evaluate the importance of different structural shocks. Finally, the conclusion is drawn: under normal circumstances, both industrial structure and changes will have a positive and negative impact on economic growth. In the environment of Hebei Province, the secondary industry occupies a great deal in this area, where the development of the third industry is still pending, because of the vigorous development of the tertiary industry. The role of secondary industry in Hebei's economic development is gradually weakened, but the reality of higher industrialization also reflects the unreasonable present situation of Hebei's industrial structure. Therefore, the paper puts forward some relevant policies and suggestions from several aspects, such as speeding up the development of agriculture, continuing to promote the process of industrialization and striving to expand the scale of the tertiary industry. The innovation of this paper is to use ADF unit root to test the stability of GDP, industrial structure, and to establish the VAR model of Hebei Province's industrial structure and economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F121.3;F127
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