我国金融业与实体经济非协同发展关系研究

发布时间：2018-09-18 21:55

【摘要】：近年来，我国金融业与实体经济渐相背离的非协同发展趋势引起了社会各界的广泛关注，，二者发展关系问题逐渐成为了社会和学界探讨的热点。本文采用定量、定性分析法和实证检验分析法对我国金融业与实体经济的非协同发展关系进行深入的探讨。在梳理前期研究成果的基础上归纳出金融业与实体经济的相关发展机理，并对近年来二者各自发展情况和背离关系进行了阐释。通过协整检验，格兰杰因果检验，脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析，深入剖析了金融业与实体经济整体之间的关系。同时利用30个省市的面板数据分行业实证分析了金融业对实体经济发展的影响作用。结论表明：金融业与实体经济存在稳定的协整关系和单向格兰杰因果关系，实体经济是金融业的格兰杰原因，金融业不是实体经济的格兰杰原因；实体经济数据对金融业数据新息冲击的反应为负向效应，金融业数据对实体经济数据新息冲击的反应为正向效应；实体经济数据的波动大部分由自身解释，金融业数据的波动有40%左右可以被实体经济解释；实体经济有力地推动了金融业发展，金融业没有明显推动实体经济发展；与其他宏观经济因素相比，银行业和证券业对实体经济的影响作用不显著，没有明显的促进作用。最后，本文在对我国金融业与实体经济非协同发展问题分析的基础上，提出了相关的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the trend of non-synergistic development of financial industry and real economy in China has aroused widespread concern from all walks of life, and the relationship between the two has gradually become a hot topic in the social and academic circles. In this paper, quantitative, qualitative and empirical analysis methods are used to study the relationship between financial industry and real economy in China. On the basis of combing the previous research results, this paper sums up the relevant development mechanism of financial industry and real economy, and explains their respective development situation and deviation relationship in recent years. Through cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis, the relationship between the financial industry and the real economy as a whole is deeply analyzed. At the same time, using the panel data of 30 provinces and cities, the paper empirically analyzes the effect of financial industry on the development of real economy. The conclusion shows that there is a stable co-integration relationship and one-way Granger causality between the financial industry and the real economy. The real economy is the Granger cause of the financial industry, and the financial industry is not the Granger cause of the real economy. The response of real economic data to financial data innovation is a negative effect, and the response of financial data to real economic data innovation is positive, and the fluctuation of real economic data is mostly explained by itself. About 40% of the fluctuations in the financial sector data can be explained by the real economy; the real economy promotes the development of the financial industry powerfully, and the financial sector does not obviously promote the development of the real economy; compared with other macroeconomic factors, The impact of banking and securities on the real economy is not significant and has no obvious promoting effect. Finally, based on the analysis of the non-coordinated development between the financial industry and the real economy in China, this paper puts forward some relevant policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832;F124

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