中国科技创新驱动经济增长中短周期测度研究——基于景气状态视角

发布时间：2018-10-18 16:01

【摘要】：本文基于熊彼特的创新周期诠释经济增长周期理论,界定区域科技创新驱动经济增长波动性和周期性概念,构建区域科技创新驱动经济增长波动性和周期性测度模型,利用中国科技创新景气指数和宏观经济景气指数合成中国科技创新驱动经济增长指数,运用该指数对中国科技创新驱动经济增长中短周期波动性特征进行测度研究。研究结果表明:中国科技创新驱动经济增长波动不是随机波动,而是具有一定周期性的波动;周期性波动的时间、振幅、频率、波峰、波谷、波动位势等指标受到外在环境变化影响,具有不等间隔、不重复、不对称等特征;外在环境变化对创新驱动增长的冲击影响是微小暂时的,创新驱动增长的长期趋势平稳;在监测期内,中国科技创新驱动经济增长波动走势稳定,但实际水平亟待提高,科技创新原动力亟待增强。
[Abstract]:Based on Schumpeter's innovation cycle theory, this paper defines the concept of volatility and periodicity of regional sci-tech innovation driving economic growth, and constructs a model of regional sci-tech innovation driven economic growth volatility and periodicity. The index of China's sci-tech innovation driven economic growth is synthesized by using the Chinese S & T innovation boom index and the macro-economic boom index, and the characteristics of the short cycle volatility of China's sci-tech innovation driving economic growth are measured and studied by using the index. The results show that the fluctuation of economic growth driven by scientific and technological innovation in China is not a random fluctuation, but a certain periodic fluctuation; the time, amplitude, frequency, wave peak, trough of the periodic fluctuation, The fluctuating potential and other indexes are influenced by the external environment, and have the characteristics of unequal interval, non-repetition, asymmetry, etc. The impact of external environmental change on innovation-driven growth is small and temporary, and the long-term trend of innovation-driven growth is stable. During the monitoring period, the fluctuation trend of economic growth driven by scientific and technological innovation in China is stable, but the actual level needs to be improved, and the original motive force of scientific and technological innovation needs to be strengthened.
【作者单位】：北京科技大学东凌经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71273025)
【分类号】：F124.3

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