高额持有美国国债对我国经济金融影响的实证分析
发布时间：2018-10-25 08:25
【摘要】：我国外汇储备资产一直以美元资产为主，其中，，又以美国国债为主要投资方向，持有高额的美国国债，是中美两国经济发展模式的必然结果，是我国与美国的经济关系客观要求，是当前国际资金运动规律的内在要求，也是我国和平崛起的战略需要。与此同时，中美两国经济高度相互依赖，我国外汇储备约30%以上投资于美国国债，这种大量以美国国债形式持有外汇储备的单一结构下，高额美国国债投资面临着巨大的敞口额风险，其对我国经济金融带来的影响也是不容忽视的，必须高度重视。 本文从金融的视角，以高额持有美国国债为切题点，采用定性与定量相结合的方法，从数量和价格两个传导路径进行分析，从数量角度:持有美国国债→货币供应量→通货膨胀，主要分析了高额持有美国国债对我国通货膨胀传导；从价格角度：持有美国国债→市场利率→人民币兑美元双边汇率，主要分析了高额持有美国国债对我国人民币兑美元双边汇率的传导，并指出了我国高额持有美国国债的通货膨胀风险和人民币汇率风险，VAR模型的实证分析也进一步印证了持有美国国债的通货膨胀和人民币汇率的传导。最后，文章从四个角度提出了相关的应对策略，以最大限度的降低高额持有美国国债的风险。
[Abstract]:Our foreign exchange reserve assets have been dominated by US dollar assets. Among them, the US Treasury bonds are the main investment direction and the holding of high US Treasuries is the inevitable result of the economic development models of China and the United States. It is the objective requirement of the economic relationship between China and the United States, the internal requirement of the current international fund movement law, and the strategic need of our country's peaceful rise. At the same time, the economies of China and the United States are highly interdependent. About 30 percent of China's foreign exchange reserves are invested in US Treasury bonds. Under the single structure of holding large amounts of foreign exchange reserves in the form of US Treasuries, High U.S. Treasury bond investment is faced with a huge exposure risk, and its impact on China's economy and finance should not be ignored, so it must be highly valued. In this paper, from the perspective of finance, taking the high holdings of US Treasuries as the key point, using the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, this paper analyzes the two transmission paths of quantity and price. From a quantitative point of view: holding US Treasury bonds / money supply / inflation, mainly analyzing the transmission of high holdings of US Treasuries to China's inflation; from the price point of view: holding US Treasury bonds market interest rate / RMB / US dollar bilateral exchange rate. This paper mainly analyzes the transmission of high holdings of US Treasury bonds to the bilateral exchange rate of China's RMB against the US dollar. The paper also points out the inflation risk and RMB exchange rate risk of China's high holdings of US Treasuries, and the empirical analysis of the VAR model further confirms the transmission of inflation and RMB exchange rate. Finally, the paper puts forward the relevant countermeasures from four angles to minimize the risk of high Treasury holdings.
【学位授予单位】：苏州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F124
本文编号：2293157
[Abstract]:Our foreign exchange reserve assets have been dominated by US dollar assets. Among them, the US Treasury bonds are the main investment direction and the holding of high US Treasuries is the inevitable result of the economic development models of China and the United States. It is the objective requirement of the economic relationship between China and the United States, the internal requirement of the current international fund movement law, and the strategic need of our country's peaceful rise. At the same time, the economies of China and the United States are highly interdependent. About 30 percent of China's foreign exchange reserves are invested in US Treasury bonds. Under the single structure of holding large amounts of foreign exchange reserves in the form of US Treasuries, High U.S. Treasury bond investment is faced with a huge exposure risk, and its impact on China's economy and finance should not be ignored, so it must be highly valued. In this paper, from the perspective of finance, taking the high holdings of US Treasuries as the key point, using the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, this paper analyzes the two transmission paths of quantity and price. From a quantitative point of view: holding US Treasury bonds / money supply / inflation, mainly analyzing the transmission of high holdings of US Treasuries to China's inflation; from the price point of view: holding US Treasury bonds market interest rate / RMB / US dollar bilateral exchange rate. This paper mainly analyzes the transmission of high holdings of US Treasury bonds to the bilateral exchange rate of China's RMB against the US dollar. The paper also points out the inflation risk and RMB exchange rate risk of China's high holdings of US Treasuries, and the empirical analysis of the VAR model further confirms the transmission of inflation and RMB exchange rate. Finally, the paper puts forward the relevant countermeasures from four angles to minimize the risk of high Treasury holdings.
【学位授予单位】：苏州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F124
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