后高速增长期经济波动的福利成本
发布时间：2018-10-30 12:01
【摘要】：文章提出了一种数值方法对经济波动的福利成本进行跨国跨期分析:(1)中国经济波动的福利成本相当大,不支持卢卡斯论断,而美国经济波动的福利成本支持卢卡斯论断,即经济波动不具有重要的福利价值;(2)中美之间的福利成本差异并非特例,而是具有一般性意义,发展中国家的经济波动整体上位于"具有重要福利价值"的区间,发达国家的经济波动整体上位于"不具有重要福利价值"区间;(3)当高速增长期结束后,伴随着经济增长速度明显下降,经济波动的福利成本也有所下降,但这一阶段的经济波动仍然不支持卢卡斯论断。
[Abstract]:In this paper, a numerical method is proposed to analyze the welfare costs of economic fluctuations in a cross-temporal manner. (1) the welfare costs of economic fluctuations in China are quite large and do not support Lucas' argument, while the welfare costs of economic fluctuations in the United States support Lucas' argument. That is, economic fluctuation does not have important welfare value; (2) the differences in welfare costs between China and the United States are not exceptional, but of general significance. The economic fluctuations of developing countries as a whole are in the range of "significant welfare value". The economic fluctuation of developed countries as a whole lies in the range of "no significant welfare value"; (3) when the period of high speed growth is over, the welfare cost of economic fluctuation also decreases with the obvious decline of economic growth rate, but the economic fluctuation in this stage still does not support Lucas' conclusion.
【作者单位】： 上海外国语大学;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金“非同步经济周期下宏观经济政策的国际协调研究”(项目编号:13BGJ037)
【分类号】：F113.7
[Abstract]:In this paper, a numerical method is proposed to analyze the welfare costs of economic fluctuations in a cross-temporal manner. (1) the welfare costs of economic fluctuations in China are quite large and do not support Lucas' argument, while the welfare costs of economic fluctuations in the United States support Lucas' argument. That is, economic fluctuation does not have important welfare value; (2) the differences in welfare costs between China and the United States are not exceptional, but of general significance. The economic fluctuations of developing countries as a whole are in the range of "significant welfare value". The economic fluctuation of developed countries as a whole lies in the range of "no significant welfare value"; (3) when the period of high speed growth is over, the welfare cost of economic fluctuation also decreases with the obvious decline of economic growth rate, but the economic fluctuation in this stage still does not support Lucas' conclusion.
【作者单位】： 上海外国语大学;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金“非同步经济周期下宏观经济政策的国际协调研究”(项目编号:13BGJ037)
【分类号】：F113.7
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