广东经济增长的驱动因素：1978-2012

发布时间：2019-03-30 22:55

【摘要】：过去30多年广东作为中国改革开放的先行者，取得举世瞩目的发展成就。广东经济增长的驱动因素是什么？它们各自的贡献份额有多大？广东经济增长的前景如何？科学地回答这些问题，对于广东总结发展经验、挖掘增长潜力、实现更大发展具有重要的意义。本文根据内生经济增长理论，通过建立包含人力资本的Cobb-Douglas生产函数，并引入技术进步、制度变革和结构变动的变量，分析了1978-2012年广东经济增长的驱动因素。结果发现：要素投入、人力资本溢出、技术进步、制度变迁和结构变化是过去30多年驱动广东经济增长的重要因素。资本投入、劳动力投入、劳动力素质提高、技术进步、市场化改革的推进、贸易开放度的提升、城镇化和工业化程度的提高，均对广东经济增长有显著的促进效应。本文通过核算分析进一步发现：广东经济增长依然属于要素驱动型增长，资本投入对经济增长的驱动作用尤为突出。1978-2012年要素投入对经济增长的平均贡献份额达到71.70%，其中资本投入的平均贡献份额为61.42%，劳动力数量投入的贡献份额稳定在10%左右。全要素生产率贡献突出，1978-2012年全要素生产率对经济增长的平均贡献份额达到28.30%，表明改革开放以来广东的经济增长并不是“没有全要素生产率的提高”（Krugman，1994）。劳动力质量提高、技术进步的驱动作用更加明显，1978-2012年平均贡献份额分别达到9.31%和6.55%，成为促进广东经济增长的重要力量。制度变革和结构变动的贡献份额有所下降。本文还在预测广东经济增长驱动因素未来变动趋势的基础上，分析广东经济的发展前景。预计广东经济2013-2025年年均增长率为8.47%，在教育投入和科技研发力度加大，，城镇化持续推进的乐观情景下，经济增长率可以达到9.42%。
[Abstract]:Guangdong, as a forerunner of China's reform and opening up in the past 30 years, has made remarkable achievements in development. What are the drivers of Guangdong's economic growth? What are their share of their contributions? What is the prospect of Guangdong's economic growth? To answer these questions scientifically is of great significance for Guangdong to sum up its development experience, tap its growth potential and realize greater development. Based on the endogenous economic growth theory, this paper analyzes the driving factors of Guangdong's economic growth from 1978 to 2012 by establishing the Cobb-Douglas production function including human capital and introducing the variables of technological progress, institutional change and structural change. The results show that factor input, human capital spillover, technological progress, institutional change and structural change are the important factors driving Guangdong's economic growth in the past 30 years. The investment of capital, the improvement of labor quality, the progress of technology, the promotion of market-oriented reform, the promotion of trade openness, the improvement of urbanization and industrialization, all have significant promoting effects on Guangdong's economic growth. Through the analysis of accounting, this paper further finds that Guangdong's economic growth still belongs to the factor-driven growth. Capital investment played a particularly important role in driving economic growth. In 1978-2012, the average contribution share of factor investment to economic growth reached 71.70%, of which the average contribution share of capital investment was 61.42%. The contribution share of labor force input is stable at about 10%. The contribution of TFP to economic growth reached 28.30% in 1978-2012, indicating that the economic growth of Guangdong Province since the reform and opening-up was not "without the increase of TFP" (Krugman,1994). In 1978-2012, the average contribution share reached 9.31% and 6.55% respectively, which became an important force to promote Guangdong's economic growth. The contribution share of institutional change and structural change has declined. On the basis of forecasting the trend of the driving factors of Guangdong's economic growth in the future, this paper analyzes the development prospects of Guangdong's economy. Guangdong's economy is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 8.47 percent between 2013 and 2025. Under the optimistic scenario of increasing investment in education, scientific and technological research and development, and continued urbanization, the economic growth rate could reach 9.42 percent.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127

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