现代风险导向审计下的财务报告舞弊预警模型研究

发布时间：2018-06-15 22:47

本文选题：风险导向审计 + 财务报告舞弊预警　；参考：《东北林业大学》2008年硕士论文

【摘要】： 随着审计环境的日益复杂,传统的审计方法在识别财务报告舞弊方面逐渐暴露其缺点,2007年1月1日起我国《中国注册会计师审计准则第1141号——财务报表审计中对舞弊的考虑》的正式实施标志着审计模式已由制度基础审计转变为现代风险导向审计。现代风险导向审计强调审计人员应当保持合理的职业怀疑态度,深入了解企业舞弊环境,把财务报表重大错报风险作为风险评估的重心,以防范审计风险,因此,现代风险导向审计下迫切需要提高注册会计师对财务报告舞弊的预测能力。建立财务报告舞弊预警模型,可以提高注册会计师预测被审计单位财务报告舞弊的能力,可以为会计师事务所及注册会计师识别上市公司舞弊提供理论参考,使其在源头上排除不能胜任的高风险审计项目,并且为注册会计师接受审计委托后制定下一步审计程序提供方向性指引。财务报告舞弊预警模型的建立,还可以帮助证券监督委员会等监管机构分析上市公司的舞弊倾向,从而防患于未然。由此可见,研究建立现代风险导向审计下财务报告舞弊预警模型,对于指导审计实务具有一定的理论意义和现实意义。本文在归纳和分析国内外相关理论和研究现状的基础上,首先采用规范研究的方法,从财务报告舞弊现状、舞弊手段、舞弊成因等方面进行了系统地分析,并在此基础上指出建立财务报告舞弊预警模型的必要性。其次运用实证分析的方法,选取有代表性的上市公司作为财务报告舞弊预警模型研究的样本,从偿债能力、盈利能力、经营现金流量、资产管理能力和资金变现能力和股权结构、与关联方关系密切程度、是否被特殊处理等方面,选取了20个财务指标和非财务指标,并用显著性分析和主成分分析法对其进行筛选,最终确定了5个财务指标主成分和3个非财务指标作为最终预警指标,利用Logistic回归方法构建了仅使用财务指标的财务报告舞弊预警模型和引入非财务指标后的财务报告舞弊预警模型,并对两个模型判断准确率进行检验和比较。最后对具体上市公司的实例进行检验,研究结果表明:引入股权结构、与关联方关系密切程度、是否被特殊处理等非财务指标的财务报告舞弊预警模型的预警效果较好,建立财务报告舞弊预警机制势在必行。
[Abstract]:With the increasing complexity of the audit environment, The traditional audit method has gradually exposed its shortcomings in identifying financial report fraud. From January 1, 2007, China's CPA auditing Standard No. 1141-consideration of Fraud in Financial statement Audit has been formally implemented. The audit mode has changed from system-based audit to modern risk-oriented audit. Modern risk-oriented audit emphasizes that auditors should maintain a reasonable attitude of professional scepticism, deeply understand the environment of corporate fraud, take the risk of material misstatement of financial statements as the focus of risk assessment, so as to guard against audit risks. Under the modern risk-oriented audit, there is an urgent need to improve the CPA's ability to predict financial reporting fraud. The establishment of an early warning model of financial reporting fraud can improve the ability of certified public accountants to predict financial reporting fraud in audited units, and can provide a theoretical reference for accounting firms and certified public accountants to identify fraud in listed companies. Make it eliminate the incompetent high-risk audit project at the source, and provide direction guidance for the CPA to formulate the next audit procedure after accepting the audit commission. The establishment of financial reporting fraud warning model can also help regulators such as the Securities Supervision Commission to analyze the fraud tendency of listed companies so as to prevent trouble in the early stages. Therefore, it is of theoretical and practical significance to establish the financial report fraud early warning model under modern risk-oriented audit. On the basis of summing up and analyzing the relevant theories and research status at home and abroad, this paper first uses the method of normative research to systematically analyze the current situation of fraud in financial reporting, the means of fraud, the causes of fraud, and so on. On this basis, it points out the necessity of establishing financial report fraud warning model. Secondly, using the method of empirical analysis, select representative listed companies as the sample of financial reporting fraud early warning model, from the solvency, profitability, operating cash flow, 20 financial indicators and non-financial indicators are selected from the aspects of asset management ability, capital realisation ability and equity structure, the degree of close relationship with related parties, whether or not they are specially treated, etc. It was screened by significance analysis and principal component analysis, and five principal components and three non-financial indexes were determined as the final early warning index. Using Logistic regression method, the financial reporting fraud warning model using only financial indicators and the financial report fraud warning model after introducing non-financial indicators are constructed, and the accuracy of the two models is tested and compared. Finally, an example of specific listed companies is tested. The results show that the early-warning model of financial reporting fraud, such as the introduction of equity structure, the close relationship with related parties and the non-financial indicators such as special treatment, has a good early warning effect. It is imperative to establish an early warning mechanism for financial reporting fraud.
【学位授予单位】：东北林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2008
【分类号】：F239.4;F224

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