审计意见与银行贷款续新决策关系研究
发布时间：2018-09-17 13:56
【摘要】：本文回顾了国内外关于审计意见与银行信贷决策关系的研究,发现无论在国内还是国外学者们并没有得出统一的结论,并且在我国对此问题的研究还远未达到成熟阶段。本文在相关理论的基础上,指出审计为银行提供了一个对于企业会计信息是否真实、可靠出具了一个独立、客观、公正的审计意见,为银行直接提供了一个结果从而辅助银行做出信贷决策。但是基于我国特殊的现实情况,银行或许更加关注企业是否有较好的偿债能力或者是否拥有足够的资产作为抵押等条件,审计意见反而并不是银行信贷者十分关注的因素。 本文采用了国内针对审计意见与银行贷款决策的主流研究方法即多元回归分析方法,为了试图解决多元回归模型的内生性等一系列问题,本文首次尝试将PSM估计方法引用到关于审计意见的相关研究当中作为一种探索性方法与多元回归分析方法作为对比研究,旨在探讨更加适用于本文研究内容的研究方法。 本文实证研究结果表明： (1)在多元回归方法下,除在新准则样本短期贷款续新变量下没有通过显著性检验外,其余情况下,审计意见对贷款续新的影响均通过了显著性检验,并且呈负相关关系。这说明,在没有配对的全样本情况下,非标准审计意见对银行贷款续新有显著的负面影响。 (2)在PSM估计方法下,我们发现,在进行配对之前,审计意见类型对银行贷款续新决策的平均激励效果是显著的,而配对之后结果反而不显著。这说明多元回归分析方法下,审计意见类型对银行贷款决策的影响有可能被高估了。 (3)在两种方法下得到的结论不一致的情况下,本文对PSM方法较多元分析法的优缺点进行了探讨。本文认为,多元回归分析方法存在着不可避免的变量内生性等问题,理论上PSM方法通过挑选倾向得分值相近的样本来将处理组与对照组进行配对,来达到处理组与对照组在某些特征变量上的同质性,从而可以解决内生性问题,具有更稳健的因果关系推论功能。
[Abstract]:This paper reviews the domestic and foreign studies on the relationship between audit opinions and bank credit decisions, and finds that there is no unified conclusion of scholars both at home and abroad, and the research on this issue in our country is far from mature stage. On the basis of relevant theories, this paper points out that auditing provides banks with an independent, objective and impartial audit opinion on whether accounting information is true or not. It provides a direct result for banks to help them make credit decisions. However, due to the special reality of our country, the banks may pay more attention to whether the enterprises have good solvency or whether they have enough assets as collateral, but the audit opinion is not the factor that the bank credit people pay much attention to. In order to solve a series of problems such as endogeneity of multiple regression model, this paper adopts the main research method of audit opinion and bank loan decision in China, I. E. multiple regression analysis. For the first time, this paper attempts to apply the PSM estimation method to the relevant research on audit opinion as an exploratory method and a multivariate regression analysis method as a comparative study, in order to explore a more suitable research method for the content of this paper. The empirical results of this paper show that: (1) under the multivariate regression method, except for the new criterion sample short-term loan renewal variable, the significance test is not passed, the other cases, The impact of audit opinions on loan renewal has passed the significance test and is negatively correlated. This indicates that, in the absence of a full matched sample, non-standard audit opinions have a significant negative impact on the renewal of bank loans. (2) under the PSM estimation method, we found that, before matching, The type of audit opinion is significant to the average incentive effect of bank loan renewal decision, but the result is not significant after matching. This indicates that the impact of the type of audit opinion on bank loan decision may be overestimated under the method of multiple regression analysis. (3) in the case of inconsistent conclusions between the two methods, In this paper, the advantages and disadvantages of PSM multivariate analysis are discussed. In this paper, it is concluded that the multiple regression analysis method has some inevitable problems, such as variable endogenicity. In theory, PSM method pairs the treatment group with the control group by selecting samples with similar scores. In order to achieve the homogeneity of some characteristic variables between the treatment group and the control group, we can solve the endogenetic problem and have a more robust function of causal inference.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F239.4;F832.4;F224
本文编号：2246141
[Abstract]:This paper reviews the domestic and foreign studies on the relationship between audit opinions and bank credit decisions, and finds that there is no unified conclusion of scholars both at home and abroad, and the research on this issue in our country is far from mature stage. On the basis of relevant theories, this paper points out that auditing provides banks with an independent, objective and impartial audit opinion on whether accounting information is true or not. It provides a direct result for banks to help them make credit decisions. However, due to the special reality of our country, the banks may pay more attention to whether the enterprises have good solvency or whether they have enough assets as collateral, but the audit opinion is not the factor that the bank credit people pay much attention to. In order to solve a series of problems such as endogeneity of multiple regression model, this paper adopts the main research method of audit opinion and bank loan decision in China, I. E. multiple regression analysis. For the first time, this paper attempts to apply the PSM estimation method to the relevant research on audit opinion as an exploratory method and a multivariate regression analysis method as a comparative study, in order to explore a more suitable research method for the content of this paper. The empirical results of this paper show that: (1) under the multivariate regression method, except for the new criterion sample short-term loan renewal variable, the significance test is not passed, the other cases, The impact of audit opinions on loan renewal has passed the significance test and is negatively correlated. This indicates that, in the absence of a full matched sample, non-standard audit opinions have a significant negative impact on the renewal of bank loans. (2) under the PSM estimation method, we found that, before matching, The type of audit opinion is significant to the average incentive effect of bank loan renewal decision, but the result is not significant after matching. This indicates that the impact of the type of audit opinion on bank loan decision may be overestimated under the method of multiple regression analysis. (3) in the case of inconsistent conclusions between the two methods, In this paper, the advantages and disadvantages of PSM multivariate analysis are discussed. In this paper, it is concluded that the multiple regression analysis method has some inevitable problems, such as variable endogenicity. In theory, PSM method pairs the treatment group with the control group by selecting samples with similar scores. In order to achieve the homogeneity of some characteristic variables between the treatment group and the control group, we can solve the endogenetic problem and have a more robust function of causal inference.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F239.4;F832.4;F224
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