碳交易机制下可再生能源投资价值与投资时机研究

发布时间：2018-01-03 00:14

本文关键词：碳交易机制下可再生能源投资价值与投资时机研究　出处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：中国承诺2017年启动全国性碳排放交易系统,在碳交易机制下,可再生能源项目可以通过CCER交易获得额外收益。由于碳价格是随着市场条件而随机波动的,碳价波动性使得可再生能源发电项目投资具有了期权性质的权利,即未来不确定性可能包含更高的价值。可再生能源企业在做投资决策时,可以选择立即投资,也可以选择推迟投资,等待更多信息来提高项目收益,而立即投资的项目回报必须足够高以克服等待期权的蕴含价值。为了研究碳价波动下可再生能源项目投资,本文采用实物期权法的三叉树模型,测算了三类可再生能源发电项目投资的npv及其实物期权价值(ROV)。根据延迟实物期权决策规则,三类项目均执行期权延迟投资决策。本文还计算了在无政府补贴和有政府补贴两种情形下,三种可再生能源项目在不同时点的栏杆价格,以确定项目的投资时机。栏杆价格随着政府补贴的增加而逐步下降,说明政府补贴会促进可再生能源项目投资;栏杆价格随着时间的推移而逐步上升,意味着时间跨度越大,不确定性越大,需要更高碳市场价格来确定投资时机。本文对影响可再生能源项目投资因素敏感性进行了分析,结果表明碳价波动率与可再生能源发电项目的栏杆价格呈现正相关的关系,说明碳价波动性增加了企业投资的期权价值,却推迟了企业开展投资的时间。随着中国碳交易体系的不断完善,碳价波动幅度会趋于平稳,从而促进发电企业进行可再生能源发电项目投资。
[Abstract]:China has pledged to launch a national carbon trading system under a carbon trading scheme in 2017. Renewable energy projects can generate additional benefits through the CCER trade, since carbon prices fluctuate randomly according to market conditions. The volatility of carbon price makes the investment of renewable energy generation project have the right of option, that is, the uncertainty in the future may contain higher value. Renewable energy enterprises can choose to invest immediately when making investment decisions. You can also choose to delay your investment and wait for more information to improve your project returns. In order to study the investment of renewable energy projects under the fluctuation of carbon price, this paper uses the tri-tree model of real options method to overcome the potential value of waiting options. The npv and its real option value of three kinds of renewable energy power generation projects are calculated and determined according to the decision rules of delayed real options. This paper also calculates the balustrade price of three renewable energy projects at different time points in the case of anarchy subsidy and government subsidy. In order to determine the investment timing of the project. The balustrade price decreases gradually with the increase of the government subsidy, indicating that the government subsidy will promote the investment of the renewable energy project; Railing prices gradually rise over time, meaning that the longer the time span, the greater the uncertainty. A higher carbon market price is needed to determine the timing of investment. This paper analyzes the sensitivity of investment factors affecting renewable energy projects. The results show that there is a positive correlation between carbon price volatility and the railing price of renewable energy generation projects, which indicates that carbon price volatility increases the option value of enterprise investment. As China's carbon trading system continues to improve, the range of carbon price fluctuations will tend to stabilize, thus promoting power generation enterprises to invest in renewable energy generation projects.
【作者单位】：北京理工大学管理与经济学院;北京大学软件与微电子学院;
【分类号】：X196;F832.5;F426.2
【正文快照】： 气候变化背景下,温室气体减排是影响人类生存和发展的重大挑战[1]。目前能够实现温室气体减排的途径主要包括采用节能减排技术提高能源利用效率、大力发展可再生能源、碳捕捉与封存技术(CCS)以及植树造林等。其中,可再生能源投资和利用是十分有效的节能减排途径,已经成为现阶

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