限售股减持、证券分析师预测与盈余管理关系研究

发布时间：2018-01-03 14:10

本文关键词：限售股减持、证券分析师预测与盈余管理关系研究　出处：《山东大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近期,中国证监会接连发布关于大股东减持的公告,要求不断完善大股东减持的行为规范。限售股减持由于其特殊性,也一直备受证券市场上相关利益者的关注。其中股改限售股大部分已经解锁,其他类型的限售股则发展迅速,使得限售股减持压力愈加突出。限售股股东为了在减持时获取更高的私利,有动机和能力使上市公司进行盈余管理。在我国证券市场上,与上市公司相比,投资者所能搜集到的有效信息十分有限,依靠自身获取超额利益比较困难。证券分析师的出现,恰好可以弥补这种信息劣势。他们的专业和能力备受投资者信赖,自然而然也会对上市公司产生影响。这种影响具体可分为诱导和抑制作用,一方面证券分析师预测可以代表市场对上市公司的预期,若达不到预期,上市公司可能会面临股价下跌、投资者弃逃的局面,因此有危机的公司就会想方设法地调整会计利润,以满足所谓的预期,这就是"诱导"作用;另一方面,证券分析师作为相对独立的第三方,力求提供客观准确的预测信息,可以抑制上市公司在利润上的过度修饰,使其披露更加可靠的盈余报告。在我国相关的监督管理机制还不十分健全的背景下,哪种作用更显著值得探讨。在此基础上,限售股股东出售相应股份前,证券分析师预测是否会发挥同样的作用呢?鉴于此,本文选择2011-2015年期间,所有在A股市场发生限售股减持事件的上市公司为研究对象,对限售股减持、证券分析师预测与盈余管理的关系进行研究。本文首先考察了限售股股东减持前,上市公司是否倾向于进行盈余管理,并以限售股减持数量比率和减持市值比率衡量限售股减持规模,分别检验两个比率与上市公司盈余管理程度之间的关系。然后加入证券分析师预测作为调节变量,检验它对盈余管理的作用是抑制还是诱导;并进一步选择相应指标度量证券分析师跟踪和预测质量,细化考察它们对限售股减持过程中盈余管理的作用机制,以期丰富相关研究。通过实证研究发现,上市公司会为了配合限售股股东出售股份而调整会计报表上的利润;以减持数量比率和减持市值比率衡量的减持规模越大,上市公司在限售股股东减持前承受的压力越大,利润操控的程度越高;证券分析师在一定程度上弥补了政府监管薄弱环节,随着证券分析师预测普及率不断提高,可以有效约束上市公司迫于限售股股东压力,调整会计盈余的行为;限售股股东减持前,证券分析师跟踪主要抑制上市公司通过生产控制来操纵盈余,同时发现上市公司还会通过费用控制做反向调整;限售股股东减持前,证券分析师预测质量在相对较低预测误差组和较低预测分散区间,与上市公司进行盈余管理的程度正相关,说明证券分析师预测质量越好,越能发挥监督替代作用,抑制上市公司出于限售股股东减持考虑而进行盈余调整。控制了内生性问题后再次进行检验,获得的结果依然可靠。在我国社会经济快速发展的背景下,各方面的政策机制都急需更新和完善。本文关于限售股减持、证券分析师预测与盈余管理关系的研究对提高信息报告质量,加强证券分析师人才队伍建设以及完善证券市场监管机制等方面提供一定的借鉴和启示。
[Abstract]:Recently, the Commission issued a series of China holdings of major shareholders announcement, behave and constantly improve the holdings of major shareholders holdings of restricted shares. Due to its particularity, the stock market has attracted much attention. The stakeholders limit the sale of shares has been largely to unlock, other types of restricted shares are the rapid development of the restrictions on the sale of shares of the pressure is more and more prominent. In order to limit the sale of shares in the holdings of shareholders get higher interests, motivation and the ability to make the earnings management of listed companies. In China's stock market, compared with the listed companies, investors can collect information on its own is very limited. Difficult to obtain excess interest. Securities analysts, just can make up for this information disadvantage. Their professional ability and trust by investors, will naturally affect the specific impact of such listed companies. Can be divided for induction and inhibition, a securities analyst forecast on behalf of listed companies on the market expectations, if not up to expectations, the listed company may face fell, investors abandoned escape situation, so there is a crisis of companies may try to adjust the accounting profit, in order to meet the so-called expectations, this is "induced"; on the other hand, securities analysts as a relatively independent third party, in order to provide predictive information objectively and accurately, can inhibit the excessive modification of Listed Companies in the profits, the disclosure of more reliable earnings report. In the mechanism of China's relevant management and supervision is not perfect background, what kind of role it was worth discussing. On this basis, limit the sale of shares to shareholders to sell shares of the corresponding before, whether the securities analysts predict will play the same role? In view of this, this paper chooses 2011-2015 during the year, all Limit the sale of shares listed company as the research object in A stock market, to limit the sale of shares, relationship between securities analyst forecasts and earnings management. This paper first investigates the restricted shares holdings, whether listed companies tend to manage earnings, and to limit the sale of shares the number ratio and the reduction of market value ratios, limit the sale of shares, respectively test the relationship between the two and the rate of listed companies earnings management level. Then add the securities analyst forecast as a variable, its effect on earnings management is a test of inhibition or induction; and further select the appropriate index to measure the securities analyst tracking and prediction quality. Study on refinement of their holdings of restricted shares mechanism of earnings management in the process, in order to enrich the related research. The empirical study found that listed companies in order to cope with the limited sale of shares of stock for sale Copy and adjust accounting profit; with the reduction of the number ratio and the reduction of market value ratios that measure the reduction of the size of the larger, listed companies in restricted shares holdings before the greater the pressure, the higher the degree of earnings manipulation; securities analyst in a certain extent make up for the weakness of the government supervision, with the securities analyst predicted penetration rate rising, can effectively control the listed company under the limited sale of shares of the pressure, adjust the accounting earnings; restricted shares holdings, securities analysts tracking mainly inhibit listed companies through production control to manipulate earnings, also found that listed companies will do the reverse adjustment through cost control; restricted shares holdings before the forecast quality at relatively low prediction error and low dispersion prediction interval group of securities analysts, is positively related to the degree of earnings management of listed companies, securities analysts note The prediction quality is better, more can play the irreplaceable role of supervision, restrain the listed companies for restricted shares holdings and earnings adjustment control. Considering the endogeneity problem again after the test, the result is still reliable. In the rapid development of China's social economic background, policy mechanism of all aspects of the urgent need to update and improve about. In this paper, limit the sale of shares, relationship between securities analyst forecasts and earnings management to improve the quality of information report, provide certain reference and Enlightenment on strengthening the construction of talent team and securities analysts to perfect securities market supervision mechanism.

【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.51

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