住房公积金贷款风险特征及其管控路径研究——兼论差异化利率选择与信用跃迁

发布时间：2018-01-06 04:01

本文关键词：住房公积金贷款风险特征及其管控路径研究——兼论差异化利率选择与信用跃迁　出处：《上海金融》2017年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：随着我国住房市场的不断变革,住房公积金贷款风险日趋暴露。当前,公积金贷款主要呈现出资金池持续萎缩,贷款风险地区差异大,且风险主要源于中低收入家庭等特征。为此,文章基于Merton模型及期权理论的相关经济学假设,提出了住房公积金差异化贷款利率构想,测算了不同还款概率下的公积金贷款利率最优取值,并从信用跃迁的"必然性"、"分化性"和"从劣性"就公积金贷款风险的动态监测作了进一步分析,提出了贷后风险管控的"颜值"比对法。除此,本文总结出应从构建公积金贷款风险评级体系、公积金贷款风险预警机制以及公积金贷款保险制度等层面入手,通过风险控制和风险转移双向思路,强化对公积金贷款风险的有效管控,保障住房金融市场的健康发展。
[Abstract]:With the continuous reform of China's housing market, housing provident fund loan risk has become increasingly exposed. At present, the provident fund loans shows the main capital pool continued to shrink, the difference in loan risk, and the risk is mainly due to the low income family characteristics. Therefore, the economics hypothesis Merton model and based on option theory, put forward the housing provident fund the difference of lending rate conception, estimates the optimal value of the provident fund interest rate under different repayment probability, and credit from the transition of the "necessity", "differentiation" and "from the inferior" dynamic monitoring of provident fund loans risk for further analysis, put forward the credit risk control of "Yan value ratio method. In addition, this paper summarizes should construct the risk rating system of provident fund loans, provident fund loans risk warning mechanism as well as the provident fund loan insurance system and other aspects, through the risk control and the wind The two-way thought of risk transfer is to strengthen the effective management and control of the risk of the provident fund loan so as to ensure the healthy development of the housing financial market.

【作者单位】：安徽工业大学商学院;
【基金】：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“建立公开规范的住房公积金制度研究”(14JZD028) 国家自然科学基金项目“应用大数据识别和控制住房公积金扩面风险研究”(91646126);国家自然科学基金项目“基于多维度大数据的住房抵押贷款风险管理决策支持研究”(91546113)
【分类号】：F299.23;F832.479
【正文快照】： 一、引言及综述高房价、高库存与高分化等典型特征,其中,以合肥、南住房公积金贷款风险在学术界和业界至今并没有京、苏州及厦门为代表的楼市“四小龙”领涨全国,而囿引起广泛关注,从《全国住房公积金2015年年度报告》于高空置率下的众多三、四线城市正面临着沦为“鬼来看,公

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