国际资本流入对我国上市公司财务风险的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-06 05:10

本文关键词：国际资本流入对我国上市公司财务风险的影响研究　出处：《浙江财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着国际经济、金融一体化进程加速,一国的经济波动会对其他国家经济产生冲击,而连接各国经济的关键要素是国际资本。国际资本的流动不仅对流入国的宏观经济造成冲击,同时会对微观企业的生产经营、生存状况产生影响。本文试图研究国际资本流入对我国上市公司财务风险的影响,进一步根据国际资本的性质分为外商直接投资、证券投资和其他投资,分析各种不同类型的资本流入是否对企业财务状况有不同的影响;最后考虑到信贷市场的特殊性,由于对政府的信任,银行更愿意放贷给国有企业,而不愿轻易放贷给非国有企业,造成资本没有得到最优配置,由于融资约束存在差异,将企业分为国有企业和非国有企业,进一步研究国际资本流入对不同所有制企业财务风险的影响。本文研究的创新之处是将宏观国际资本波动与微观企业相联系,这样的文献研究较为少见;另一创新之处是国际资本流入使用了外国投资者驱动的总资本流入而非净资本流入作为代理变量,净资本流入包含了国内投资者和国外投资者的投资行为,以前分析中主要利用净资本流入是由于研究对象大多为发展中国家,发展中国家为主要的资本流入国,资本流出规模较少甚至可以忽略不计,因此以往的研究用净资本流入可以代表外国投资者的投资行为。然而随着我国政治、经济、文化等各方面的发展,我国的国际地位也提高了,国内资本流出规模不断增加已经是不容忽视的一个数目,因此本文用总资本流入而非净资本流入作为代理变量。仅考虑外国投资者的投资行为,剔除本国投资者投资行为的干扰。为了解决以上三个问题,本文综合运用文献研究法、规范分析和实证研究等方法进行研究。在理论上,推导国际资本流入影响企业财务风险的传导机制;在实证分析上,以我国上市公司为样本,选取2004—2014年的面板数据,利用固定效应模型进行回归分析。数据的处理以及回归分析借助excel、spss、stata等软件进行。经过理论和实证分析,本文研究发现国际资本流入总体上可以改善企业的财务状况,降低企业财务风险;不同类型的资本流入对企业财务风险的影响并不相同,外商直接投资和其他投资流入可以降低企业财务风险,证券投资流入则由于波动性较大会增大企业的财务风险。其中外商直接投资是最可靠有利的资本流入,不仅可以缓解企业的融资约束,降低企业财务风险,而且可以通过“干中学效应”、“示范效应”、“竞争效应”等将先进的技术和管理经验引入我国企业,促进企业又快又好的发展;而其他投资由于其组成成分较为复杂,甚至有些非法资本也夹杂着其他投资的外衣流入我国,因此对其他投资资本流入对企业财务风险影响的研究有待进一步深入分析。本文的研究可以完善企业财务预警模型,以往的财务预警模型中很少考虑宏观经济的变动,本文的研究为企业进行财务风险预测时考虑国际资本流动的变化提供理论支持。为政府的资本管制也提供理论依据,在资本账户未完全开放的情况下,针对不同类型的资本流动实行不同程度的资本管制,可以逐步放松对外商直接投资的管制,重视对证券投资的资本管制,重新审视对其他投资的管制。
[Abstract]:Along with the international economic and financial integration to accelerate the process of economic fluctuations, the impact on the economy of other countries, and the key elements of the economic connection is the international capital. The flow of international capital inflow country not only macroeconomic shocks, while on the micro enterprise production and management, this paper attempts to influence survival. Study on the effect of international capital inflow on financial risk of Listed Companies in China, according to the nature of international capital into foreign direct investment, portfolio investment and other investment, analysis of various types of capital inflows will have different effects on the financial situation of enterprises; finally, considering the particularity of the credit market, the trust in government banks are more willing to lend to state-owned enterprises, and reluctant to lend to the non state-owned enterprises, resulting in the optimal allocation of capital is not, because the financing constraints exist difference Different enterprises are divided into state-owned enterprises and non state-owned enterprises, further study on the effect of international capital inflow on different ownership enterprises financial risk. The innovation of this paper is the macro international capital fluctuations and micro enterprise related literature research this is rare; another innovation is the use of the total capital inflow of international capital the foreign investor driven flows instead of net capital inflows as a proxy for net capital inflows, including domestic and overseas investors investment behavior, analysis the main use of net capital inflows is due to the research object mostly developing countries, developing countries as the main capital inflows, capital outflows less or even negligible, so the investment behavior previous studies with net capital inflows can represent foreign investors. However, as China's political, economic, cultural etc. All aspects of development, China's international status has improved, increasing the size of the domestic capital outflow is a number that can not be ignored, so the total capital inflows and net capital inflows as a proxy variable. Only considering the investment behavior of foreign investors, the investment behavior of investors in eliminating interference. In order to solve the above the three problem, this paper uses literature research method, research methods of normative analysis and empirical research. In theory, the transmission mechanism is international capital flows affect the enterprise's financial risk; in the empirical analysis, the listed companies in China as samples, the panel data from 2004 to 2014, through the regression analysis of fixed effects model. The data processing and regression analysis by Excel, SPSS, Stata and other software. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, this study found that international capital inflows can be generally To improve the financial situation of enterprises, reduce financial risk of enterprises; the different types of capital flows impact on enterprise financial risk is not the same, foreign direct investment and other investment inflows can reduce the risk of corporate finance, securities investment inflows due to more volatility will increase the enterprise's financial risk. The foreign direct investment is the most reliable favorable capital flow can not only ease the financing constraints of enterprises, reduce the financial risks of enterprise, but also through the "dry effect", "demonstration effect", "competition" and other advanced technology and management experience into Chinese enterprises, promote enterprise development faster and better; and other investment due to its complex composition and even some illegal capital is also mixed with other coat investment flowing into our country, so we need to research on other investment capital inflows impact on corporate financial risk Further in-depth analysis. This research can improve the enterprise financial pre-warning model, financial early-warning model in the past rarely consider the macroeconomic changes, to provide theoretical support to consider changes in international capital flows this research predicting financial risk for enterprises. To provide theoretical basis for the government's capital controls, in the capital account is not fully open under the condition of implementing capital control in different degrees according to different types of capital flows, you can gradually relax restrictions on FDI, emphasis on securities investment capital controls, to re-examine the other investment regulation.

【学位授予单位】：浙江财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6;F832.51;F275

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