我国股票市场价格与房地产市场价格关系研究

发布时间：2018-01-08 00:18

本文关键词：我国股票市场价格与房地产市场价格关系研究　出处：《内蒙古大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：从我国1998年实行住房商品化改革后,股票与房地产就成为了两个比较重要的投资方式。分析房地产市场价格与股票市场价格变动关系,一方面有助于分析房地产市场与股票市场的供求关系,另一方面又有利于帮助我们直观地看出资金在两个市场之间的流动状态,反映出投资者的投资方式。宏观上有利于政府部门针对当期经济环境做出正确的财政政策与货币政策,微观上有利于投资者根据相应的数据预测经济增长点,合理规划投资组合。从而推动房地产市场与股票市场价格的健康稳定发展,合理优化资源配置,实现国民经济的持续、稳定发展。本文对股票市场价格与房地产市场价格变动的研究主要从两个角度展开,首先,从整体角度分析中国股票市场价格与房地产市场价格变动之间的关系;然后从局部角度进行分析,对比不同经济发展水平的省份,其股票价格与房地产价格之间的变动关系。在研究的过程中借助了 VAR模型,利用该模型框架下的Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分析挖掘出股价与房价两个时间序列变量之间的线性关系。由实证结果可知,从整体来看,我国房地产市场价格与股票价格呈现出正向的关系;从局部来看,我国房地产市场与股票价格在不同的经济发展地区,其关系的表现形式也不同。在经济较为发达地区与经济发展地区,房地产市场的价格与股票价格是呈现出正向关系,而在经济较为落后的地区,房地产市场的价格与股票价格是呈现出反向的关系。这说明,在经济较为发达地区以及经济发展地区,当投资增多导致某一市场价格上升时,消费者与投资者的投资方式较为积极,会在财富效应、信贷扩张效应和宏观经济传导效应作用下同时加大对另一市场的投资,带动另一市场的价格上涨。而对于经济较为落后的地区,当投资增多导致某一市场价格上涨,消费者与投资者的投资方式比较保守,会在替代效应、投资组合效应作用下减少对另一市场的投资。
[Abstract]:Since the reform of housing commercialization in 1998, stock and real estate have become two more important investment methods. The relationship between real estate market price and stock market price has been analyzed. On the one hand, it helps to analyze the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market and stock market, on the other hand, it helps us to see the flow of funds between the two markets intuitively. It reflects the investment mode of investors. Macroscopically, it is advantageous for government departments to make correct fiscal and monetary policies for the current economic environment, and microcosmic for investors to forecast economic growth points according to the corresponding data. The rational planning of investment portfolio will promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market and stock market price, optimize the allocation of resources reasonably, and realize the sustained national economy. Stable development. This paper on the stock market price and real estate market price changes mainly from two angles, first. The relationship between the price of Chinese stock market and the price of real estate market is analyzed from the whole angle. Then from a local point of view to compare the relationship between stock prices and real estate prices in provinces with different levels of economic development. In the process of the study with the help of VAR model. Using the Granger causality test, impulse response function and ANOVA under the framework of this model, the linear relationship between stock price and house price is found out. From the empirical results, we can see that from the overall point of view. There is a positive relationship between real estate market price and stock price in China. From the local point of view, the relationship between real estate market and stock price in different economic development areas is also different, in the more developed areas and economic development areas. There is a positive relationship between the price of real estate market and the price of stock, while in the region where the economy is relatively backward, the price of the real estate market and the price of stock show a reverse relationship, which indicates that the relationship between the price of the real estate market and the price of the stock is negative. In the more developed areas and the economic development areas, when the increase of investment leads to a market price rise, consumers and investors are more active in the way of investment, will be in the wealth effect. Under the effect of credit expansion and macroeconomic conduction, we should increase the investment in another market at the same time, and drive up the price of the other market. When the increase of investment leads to a rise in the price of one market, consumers and investors are more conservative in the way they invest, and will reduce their investment in another market under the effect of substitution effect and portfolio effect.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.51;F299.23

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