我国货币政策对房地产价格影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-08 10:28

本文关键词：我国货币政策对房地产价格影响的实证研究　出处：《天津财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国住房市场化改革和城镇化发展步伐的加快,房地产市场快速发展并成为我国经济发展的支柱产业。房地产市场的快速发展,带动了房地产价格的膨胀,不仅损害了民生,也对经济发展极为不利。近年来,货币当局多次采取措施对房地产价格进行了调控,但房地产价格依然居高不下。那么,货币政策到底能否对房地产市场进行有效调控,保证国民经济的平稳健康发展?基于以上背景,进行了本文的研究。本文共分六部分。第一部分简述了本文的研究背景和意义,回顾了国内外各位学者的研究,在此基础上提出本文的研究点。第二部分是货币政策对房价影响机理的理论分析。第三部分是对过去十年中货币政策调控房价的有效性回顾。第四部分是本文的实证分析部分,运用VAR模型进行研究,使用单位根检验、协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解,分别研究了各变量对房地产价格的影响,并得出以下结论：房地产投资额与房价之间存在长期均衡关系,M2与利率不能显著引起房价变动,存款准备金率的变动能显著引起房价变动。第五部分是对货币政策调控房价的阻碍因素分析。针对以上理论与实证分析,结合我国实际经济现状,为进一步增强货币政策对房价的调控能力提出几点建议,如推进利率市场化进程、加强金融机构改革、引导房地产市场的合理预期、与其他政策配合使用等。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of housing market reform and urbanization, the real estate market has developed rapidly and become the pillar industry of our country's economic development. The rapid development of the real estate market has led to the expansion of real estate prices. In recent years, the monetary authorities have taken many measures to regulate the real estate prices, but the real estate prices are still high. Can monetary policy effectively regulate the real estate market and ensure the smooth and healthy development of the national economy? Based on the above background, this paper is divided into six parts. The first part briefly describes the research background and significance of this paper, and reviews the research of domestic and foreign scholars. The second part is the theoretical analysis of the influence mechanism of monetary policy on house price. The third part is a review of the effectiveness of monetary policy in controlling house price in the past decade. Part 4th is this article. Empirical analysis part. VAR model is used to study, unit root test, cointegration test, impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition. This paper studies the influence of variables on real estate price, and draws the following conclusions: there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between real estate investment and house price. M2 and interest rate can not significantly cause house price changes. The change of reserve requirement ratio can cause the change of house price significantly. Part 5th is an analysis of the obstructing factors of monetary policy regulation and control of house price. In view of the above theoretical and empirical analysis, combined with the actual economic situation in China. In order to further strengthen the ability of monetary policy to control house prices, some suggestions are put forward, such as promoting the process of interest rate marketization, strengthening the reform of financial institutions, guiding the reasonable expectation of the real estate market, and cooperating with other policies, etc.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F822.0

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