内控质量在财务重述预测中的信息含量实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-11 21:30

本文关键词：内控质量在财务重述预测中的信息含量实证研究　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：年度财务报告是上市公司向外界披露财务信息的关键载体,是对企业财务状况和经营成果的真实反映,是投资者、债权人等各利益相关者了解企业状况的有效途径。然而近年来,上市公司财务重述现象频繁发生,社会公众开始怀疑财务报告的真实性和可靠性,财务报表的真实性和可靠性受到前所未有的挑战。财务重述一方面会影响投资者的投资决策,另一方面,公司发生财务重述后,其自身的市场价值会有一定程度的跌落,损害到投资者的利益,可能还会影响到资本市场的资源配置功能。相关学者正在积极寻求财务重述预测的方法,然而至今所建立的财务重述预测模型的准确度都不高,在这种情况下,通过寻求影响财务重述的更重要的因素来提高财务重述预测准确度就显得尤为重要。本文在以往学者们研究的基础上,利用Logistic回归模型在预测问题上的优越性,构建出财务重述预测模型。并且在以往传统的预测模型中试图加入内控变量,以验证内控质量在财务重述预测中的信息含量。最终实证结果显示,在加入内控变量之前,模型预测准确率为58.5%。加入内控变量之后,最终模型预测准确率为62.6%,预测准确度显著提高,说明内部控制因素对财务重述的影响很大,内控质量在财务重述预测中拥有较高的信息含量。同时,在模型中分步加入代表内控整体有效性的变量和反映内控某个侧面的内控缺陷变量,通过比较预测准确度的变化可以看出内控整体有效性并不足以代表内控质量的所有方面,内控缺陷可能对财务重述的影响更直接,因此内控缺陷对财务重述的预测有其特殊的意义。
[Abstract]:Annual financial report is the key carrier for listed companies to disclose financial information to the outside world. It is a true reflection of the financial situation and operating results of enterprises and investors. Creditors and other stakeholders are effective ways to understand the situation of enterprises. However, in recent years, the phenomenon of financial restatement of listed companies occurs frequently, and the public begin to doubt the authenticity and reliability of financial reports. The authenticity and reliability of financial statements are facing unprecedented challenges. On the one hand, financial restatement will affect investors' investment decisions, on the other hand, after the financial restatement, the company will have financial restatement. Its own market value will fall to a certain extent, harm to the interests of investors, and may also affect the resource allocation function of the capital market. Relevant scholars are actively looking for financial restatement forecasting methods. However, the accuracy of the financial restatement prediction model established so far is not high, in this case. It is very important to improve the prediction accuracy of financial restatement by looking for more important factors that affect the financial restatement. Based on the superiority of Logistic regression model in forecasting problem, the financial restatement forecasting model is constructed, and the internal control variable is tried to be added to the traditional forecasting model. In order to verify the information content of the internal control quality in the financial restatement forecast. The final empirical results show that the model prediction accuracy is 58.5 before the inclusion of internal control variables. The prediction accuracy of the final model is 62.6, the prediction accuracy is significantly improved, indicating that the internal control factors have a great impact on the financial restatement, and the internal control quality has a high information content in the financial restatement prediction. In the model, variables representing the overall effectiveness of internal control and internal control defect variables are added step by step. By comparing the change of prediction accuracy, we can see that the overall effectiveness of internal control is not enough to represent all aspects of internal control quality, internal control defects may have a more direct impact on financial restatement. Therefore, internal control defects have a special significance for the prediction of financial restatement.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F275;F832.51

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