陕西省农业信贷对农业产出和农民收入影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-14 22:30

本文关键词：陕西省农业信贷对农业产出和农民收入影响的实证研究　出处：《西北大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：农业是一个国家具有基础性地位的产业,在国民经济中,这样的产业性质不仅决定着解决“三农”问题的重要性,也直接影响国民经济整体的发展与稳定。陕西省作为西部地区农业历史悠久的大省,相比于其他省份在自然资源方面是具有优势的,但这样的优势并没有高效利用,相比于全国平均水平及其他省份的农业发展、农村经济与农民收入仍然存在不小的差距。推动农村经济的增长和农民收入的提高最主要的途径是增加资本投入,而对农业领域的投资主要来自于农村金融机构的信贷,因此从农业信贷的角度研究增加陕西省农业产出和农民收入的显得很有必要。在一般理论分析的基础上,本文对于陕西农业发展现状进行描述性统计分析,为了进一步完善,再通过单位根检验、协整检验、Granger因果关系检验的实证分析对1992-2015年间陕西省农业贷款对农业产出和农村居民的收入影响分别进行了研究,综合理论与实证分析得出主要结论:陕西省农业贷款每增加1%的投入,农业产出增加0.317%,农民收入会增加0.570%,我省农业贷款对增加农业产出和农民收入有促进作用。基于以上陕西省农业信贷对于农业产出和农村居民收入是具有积极的作用,本文通过对农业信贷的影响因素进行理论分析,再结合实证分析,通过多元线性回归模型分析得出:陕西省耕地面积、人均GDP对农业信贷是产生积极的影响;城镇化水平、农村地区总存贷比与农业信贷是负相关关系。因此,增加农业信贷的投入一方面不能一味地加强城镇化的进程,且对金融机构存贷比设立75%红线,另一方面一个地区的经济发展水平也对其具有显著影响。
[Abstract]:Agriculture is a country which has the basic position of the industry in the national economy, the nature of this industry not only determines the importance of solving "three rural issues", but also directly affect the development and stability of the whole national economy. Shaanxi province has a long history as the western region agricultural big province, compared to other provinces in terms of natural resources is have the advantage, but this advantage is not the efficient use of agricultural development, compared to other provinces and the national average level, there is still not a small gap. The rural economy and farmers' income and promote rural economic growth and the increase of farmers' income is the main way to increase capital investment, while investment in agriculture mainly from in the rural financial institutions credit, so from the perspective of agricultural credit in Shaanxi Province, it is very necessary to increase agricultural output and farmers' income. In the analysis of general theory On the basis of the current situation of Shaanxi agricultural development by descriptive statistical analysis, in order to further improve, and through the unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test and Empirical Analysis on the impact of 1992-2015 years of agricultural loans in Shaanxi Province on agricultural output and the income of rural residents was studied, the synthesis theory and empirical analysis the main conclusions: Shaanxi Province agricultural loans to a 1% increase in investment, agricultural output increased 0.317%, farmers' income will increase by 0.570%, our province agricultural loans contribute to increased agricultural output and farmers income in Shaanxi province. Based on the above agricultural credit to the agricultural output and the income of rural residents is has a positive effect, this paper through theoretical analysis of factors effect of agricultural credit, combined with the empirical analysis, through multiple linear regression analysis that the area of cultivated land in Shaanxi Province, the per capita GDP The agricultural credit has a positive impact; the level of urbanization in rural areas, the total loan ratio and the agricultural credit is negative correlation. Therefore, the increase of agricultural credit investment on the one hand can not blindly strengthen the process of urbanization, and to set up financial institutions deposit ratio of 75% of the red line, on the other hand, the economic development of a region the level also has significant influence on it.

【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.43;F327

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