上市公司不同扭亏方式的经济后果研究

发布时间：2018-01-16 06:45

本文关键词：上市公司不同扭亏方式的经济后果研究　出处：《沈阳工业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自2008年金融危机以来世界经济低迷,我国经济发展增速放缓,企业间竞争加剧等多重原因导致公司经营情况不容乐观,亏损上市公司数量连年增加。上市公司迫于退市压力等原因在亏损后会积极采取各种措施扭转亏损,常见的扭亏方式有改善经营、加强内部管理,亦或是寻求重组、处置闲置资产以及争取政府的帮助。因此,不同扭亏方式会产生怎样的后果是值得研究的问题。论文将扭亏方式按持续性进行划分,研究不同持续性扭亏方式对市场反应和公司未来业绩的影响,以期为亏损公司扭亏方式的选择提供参考,也便于投资者及监管机构识别不同扭亏方式的真实作用,为投资者决策提供依据,促使监管机构加强对扭亏公司的监管。论文采用理论分析与实证分析相结合的方法。理论部分界定了扭亏方式和经济后果的概念,阐述了资源依赖理论等理论基础,从盈余持续性视角入手分析持续性扭亏方式和非持续性扭亏方式对市场反应和公司未来经营业绩的影响。实证分析部分首先考察了上市公司扭亏方式现状,通过对2011-2013年发布扭亏业绩预告的367家公司披露的扭亏方式统计发现:公司在亏损时倾向于采用多种扭亏方式在短时间内提高利润,从而实现扭亏。论文采用均值检验和多元线性回归方法检验采用不同持续性扭亏方式对公司业绩预告的市场反应及对未来业绩影响的差异,研究发现:1)仅采用持续性扭亏方式的上市公司在业绩预告披露的短时间内市场反应显著大于采用非持续性扭亏方式的公司,持续性扭亏方式对业绩预告披露的市场反应具有显著的正向影响;2)仅采用持续性扭亏方式的上市公司扭亏下一年的经营业绩显著大于采用非持续性扭亏方式的公司,持续性扭亏方式对公司下一年的业绩具有显著的正向影响。3)同时采用两类扭亏方式公司与仅采用非持续性扭亏方式公司的市场反应及未来业绩没有显著差异,即销售改善、内部管理等持续性扭亏方式作用非常有限,分析其原因主要为扭亏公司管理层在披露业绩改善的原因时有自利性归因倾向。基于研究结论,论文建议投资者在关注亏损公司是否扭亏的同时应加强扭亏公司扭亏方式持续性的分析,同时建议监管机构出台相关规定规范上市公司业绩变动原因的披露,并对未能如实披露的公司采取处罚措施。
[Abstract]:Since the financial crisis in 2008, the world economy has been in the doldrums, the economic growth rate of our country has slowed down, the competition among enterprises has intensified and so on many reasons lead to the company operating situation is not optimistic. The number of loss-making listed companies has been increasing year after year. The listed companies are forced to withdraw from the market and other reasons will actively take various measures to reverse the losses after losses. The common way to turn losses is to improve management and strengthen internal management. Or seek reorganization, dispose of idle assets and seek the help of the government. Therefore, it is worthwhile to study the consequences of different turnround methods. This paper studies the influence of different sustained turnaround ways on the market reaction and future performance of the company in order to provide a reference for the choice of the loss-making company's turnaround mode. It is also convenient for investors and regulators to identify the true role of different ways of turning losses and provide the basis for investors to make decisions. The paper adopts the method of combining theoretical analysis with empirical analysis. The theory part defines the concept of the mode of turnaround and the economic consequences. The theoretical basis of resource dependence theory is expounded. From the perspective of earnings sustainability, this paper analyzes the impact of sustained and unsustainable turnaround on the market response and future business performance of the company. The empirical analysis of the first part of the listed companies to examine the current situation of turnaround. Through the statistics of the turnaround mode disclosed by 367 companies that issued the forecast of turnaround performance in 2011-2013, it is found that the company tends to increase its profit in a short period of time by adopting a variety of turnaround methods when it is making a loss. In order to achieve a turnaround. The paper uses the mean test and multiple linear regression method to test the market response of different sustained turnaround methods to the company's performance forecast and the difference of the future performance. The study found that the market response of listed companies with only persistent turnaround in a short period of time after earnings announcement was significantly larger than that of non-persistent turnaround. The sustained turnaround has a significant positive impact on the market response to earnings announcement; 2) the operating performance of the listed companies which only adopt the mode of continuous turnaround in the following year is significantly higher than that of the companies adopting the mode of unsustainable turnaround. Sustained turnaround has a significant positive impact on the company's next year's performance. 3). At the same time, there is no significant difference in the market reaction and future performance between the companies using the two types of turnaround mode and the companies only adopting unsustainable turnaround mode. That is, sales improvement, internal management and other sustained ways of turnaround are very limited, the analysis of the main reasons for the management of turnaround companies in the disclosure of the reasons for performance improvement has a self-profit attribution tendency. Based on the conclusions of the study. The paper suggests that investors should strengthen the analysis of the continuity of the turnaround mode while paying close attention to whether the loss-making companies are turning losses, and suggest that the regulators should introduce relevant regulations to regulate the disclosure of the reasons for the changes in the performance of listed companies. And to the company that fails to disclose truthfully take punishment measure.
【学位授予单位】：沈阳工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F275;F832.51

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