供给侧改革下煤炭企业债券信用风险研究

发布时间：2018-01-18 05:36

本文关键词：供给侧改革下煤炭企业债券信用风险研究　出处：《贵州财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：供给侧改革侧重于过剩产能行业的去产能,主要针对供需严重不平衡、盈利困难及负债过高的行业,煤炭行业由于受宏观经济及自身产业结构不平衡的影响,出现大面积亏损,从而是供给侧改革的重点行业。近年来由于宏观经济增速放缓,煤炭下游需求疲弱;同时,前期建设产能持续释放,导致煤炭行业供给过剩,国内煤炭企业盈利能力大幅下滑,行业亏损面扩大,经营能力弱化,经营和财务压力持续增大,煤炭行业整体信用风险加大,信用质量分化加剧。个别经营严重亏损、财务杠杆高、流动性枯竭的煤炭企业甚至将面临违约风险。供给侧改革的持续推进有利于煤炭行业减少无效产能,增加有效供给,实现煤炭行业中的供需平衡,促进煤炭行业的健康发展,但国家去产能政策的实施也会在一定程度上加剧煤炭企业的竞争和洗牌,推动煤炭行业集中度的提升。2014年以来,多家煤炭企业债券发行人信用等级出现下调,且级别下调的发行人开始以AAA级、AA+级等原主体级别较高的煤炭企业为主,中煤华昱、川煤集团甚至出现债券违约,煤炭行业整体信用质量明显下滑;与其他行业相比,煤炭行业整体发行利率较高,发行利差较大,不同信用等级甚至同等级的发行人利差分化也较为明显,这一定程度上也给投资煤炭企业债券带来比较好的机会。本文以供给侧改革为背景,首先对煤炭企业债券发行主体以及债券市场信用风险的变化进行了定性与定量相结合的分析;在此基础上,以债券违约主体中煤华昱和川煤集团为案例进行了比较分析,总结出资产负债率、流动负债/总负债、净资产收益率、利润总额同比增长率、EBITDA利息保障倍数、经营现金流净额、经营现金净流量/流动债务、三大费用占营业收入的比重以及信用主体的变动这九个分析指标可以反映煤炭企业债券信用风险状况,并根据案例分析的结论进一步探究了煤炭企业债券投资的相关策略;最后对煤炭行业未来的发展以及煤炭行业债券的信用风险进行了总结和展望。
[Abstract]:The supply-side reform focuses on the deproduction capacity of excess capacity industries, mainly aimed at those industries with serious imbalance of supply and demand, difficult profitability and excessive debt. The coal industry is affected by the imbalance of macro-economy and its own industrial structure. Large area loss, which is the key industry of supply-side reform. In recent years, due to the slowdown in macroeconomic growth, coal downstream demand is weak; At the same time, the sustained release of pre-construction capacity, resulting in excess supply of the coal industry, domestic coal enterprises significantly decline in profitability, industry losses expanded, business capacity weakening, operating and financial pressure continues to increase. Coal industry as a whole credit risk increased, credit quality differentiation intensified, individual management serious losses, financial leverage is high. Coal enterprises with exhausted liquidity will even face the risk of default. The continuous promotion of supply-side reform will help the coal industry reduce ineffective production capacity, increase effective supply, and achieve the balance between supply and demand in the coal industry. Promote the healthy development of the coal industry, but the implementation of the national production policy will to some extent intensify the competition and reshuffle of coal enterprises, promote the coal industry concentration. Since 2014. A number of coal enterprise bond issuer credit rating has been downgraded, and the downgrade of the issuer began to AAA and AA grade of the main body of the higher level of coal enterprises, coal Huayu. Sichuan Coal Group even defaulted on bonds, the overall credit quality of the coal industry declined significantly; Compared with other industries, the coal industry as a whole has a higher interest rate, a large margin of issue interest, different credit grades and even the same grade of the issuer spread differentiation is more obvious. To a certain extent, it also brings a better opportunity to invest in the bonds of coal enterprises. This paper takes supply-side reform as the background. First of all, the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the change of credit risk in the bond market and the main body of bond issuance in coal enterprises is carried out. On this basis, the paper makes a comparative analysis on the main body of bond default, China Sunlight Coal and Sichuan Coal Group, and sums up the ratio of assets and liabilities, current liabilities / total liabilities, net asset return, and total profit growth rate. EBITDA interest guarantee multiple, net operating cash flow, net operating cash flow / current debt. The three major expenses account for the proportion of operating income and the change of credit main body these nine analysis indicators can reflect the credit risk situation of coal enterprise bond. According to the conclusion of the case study, the paper further explores the relevant strategies of bond investment in coal enterprises; Finally, the future development of coal industry and the credit risk of coal industry bond are summarized and prospected.
【学位授予单位】：贵州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.21;F832.51

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