中国房地产市场的需求和调控机制——一个处理政府与市场关系的分析框架

发布时间：2018-01-22 02:50

本文关键词： 房地产市场需求机制调控机制　出处：《管理世界》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文以处理政府与市场关系为框架,分析了中国城镇住房需求的长期趋势和中短期特点,提出改革完善需求调控机制的思路。未来15年的住房需求增长将主要由人口城镇化决定,总人口增长、家庭规模小型化、人口老龄化对住房需求的影响可能相互抵消,收入增长和财富积累、货币供给和利率水平、房价上涨预期和投资投机因素等对住房需求的影响将逐步减弱。应建立稳定而有效的需求调控制度和机制,处理好短期政策与长期目标的关系;合理确定城镇居民的居住面积目标,作为需求调控政策的基本依据;改革完善差别化的住房信贷、税收等政策,形成长期稳定的调控机制;使市场需求及调控机制在法律法规框架下运行,建立行政调控政策进入和退出的机制。
[Abstract]:In this paper, to deal with the relationship between government and market as the framework, analyzes the characteristics of short-term long-term trend of housing demand and Chinese Town, proposed reforms to improve the demand control mechanism. The increase of housing demand in the next 15 years will be mainly determined by population urbanization, population growth, family size, population aging effects on housing demand may offset each other, income growth and wealth accumulation, money supply and interest rates, rising prices affect the investment expectations and speculative factors on housing demand will gradually weaken. Demand control system and mechanism should establish a stable and effective, handle the relationship between short-term and long-term goals; determine a reasonable target of urban residents living area according to the demand, as the basic control policy; improve the differentiated housing credit reform, tax policies and regulatory mechanisms of the formation of long-term stability of the needs of the market; And the regulation mechanism runs under the framework of laws and regulations, and establishes the mechanism of the entry and exit of the administrative regulation policy.

【作者单位】：华侨大学经济发展与改革研究院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金2014年特别委托项目“促进房地产市场健康发展研究”(批准号:14@ZH057)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F299.23
【正文快照】： 一、引言过去10多年中,中国对房地产市场的宏观调控,主要是从调控住房需求着手的。在大多数时间里,为缓解住房市场供求矛盾,遏制房价过快上涨,中央政府采取多种政策手段抑制市场需求特别是投资投机性需求。而在运用政策扶持需求方面,总体上只有过两次,一次是2009年,为应对国际

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