P2P网络借贷财务风险预警体系研究

发布时间：2018-01-27 15:39

本文关键词： P2P网络借贷财务风险预警体系 SVM模型　出处：《陕西科技大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：互联网金融是金融业的一场伟大变革,它的出现极大地丰富了金融市场。互联网金融包括P2P网络借贷、众筹和第三方支付等。其中,P2P网络借贷凭借成本低、门槛低、资金运转快的优势,迅速发展壮大。作为一种网络时代下的金融创新模式——P2P网络借贷,一方面成为了缓解中小企业融资缺口、解决民间资本投资需求的重要工具,另一方面作为普惠金融和民主金融的重要组成部分,实现了个体与个体之间的信息互通、资源共享和资金流动。但是P2P网络借贷平台在我国的发展过程中,衍生出了许多具有“中国特色”的新模式、新业务,这使得P2P网络借贷平台的内部风险管理和外部金融监管变得更加复杂,以致于出现了各种风险,其中财务风险尤为突出。因此,如何对财务风险进行识别与管控是当前P2P网络借贷平台健康发展亟待解决的问题,也正是本文研究的意义所在。在上述现实背景下,本文以我国P2P网络借贷平台为研究对象,运用文献研究法与实证研究法,对其财务风险进行研究,在此基础上构建了P2P网络借贷平台财务风险预警体系。首先,学习和研究了国内外关于P2P网络借贷及财务风险预警的相关文献,为后续论文的撰写奠定了基础;其次,在对行业发展概况、主要风险分类及成因的研究基础上,较为全面的分析了P2P网络借贷平台所面临的财务风险;再者,基于CAMEL评价体系设计财务风险预警指标,并利用因子分析法和SVM模型构建P2P网络借贷平台财务风险预警体系;最后,选取20家典型平台作为样本进行研究,结合P2P网络借贷平台的财务风险特征和实证分析的结果,对如何防范财务风险提出针对性的对策建议。本文研究发现:P2P网络借贷平台的财务风险主要表现在资本风险、流动性风险、盈利性风险和资产质量风险等方面,其中流动性风险较为突出,对财务风险影响较大;基于CAMEL评价体系设计的指标能够较为全面的反映P2P网络借贷平台的财务风险,并且所构建的SVM预警模型预警准确率较高,其中,基于核函数Sigmoid的预警模型准确率最高,能够较为准确的预测P2P网络借贷平台面临的财务风险。P2P网络借贷财务风险预警体系的构建,有效的识别了平台面临的财务风险。在此基础上P2P网络借贷平台通过提高财务风险防范意识,完善风险管理体系,建立数据统计监测机制来防范风险,以此寻求长效的、健康的发展模式。随着金融市场环境的不断优化,P2P网络借贷行业必将迎来新一轮的发展,成为推动我国金融业发展的重要动力。
[Abstract]:Internet finance is a great change in the financial industry, its appearance has greatly enriched the financial market. Internet finance includes P2P network lending, crowdfunding and third-party payments. P2P network lending, with the advantages of low cost, low threshold and fast running of funds, has developed rapidly. As a financial innovation model in the era of network, P2P network lending. On the one hand, it has become an important tool to alleviate the financing gap of SMEs and solve the private capital investment needs, on the other hand, as an important part of inclusive finance and democratic finance. Individual and individual information exchange, resource sharing and capital flow, but P2P network lending platform in China's development process, has derived many "Chinese characteristics" of the new model, new business. This makes the internal risk management and external financial supervision of P2P network lending platform become more complex, resulting in a variety of risks, in which the financial risk is particularly prominent. How to identify and control the financial risks is a problem to be solved in the current P2P network lending platform, which is also the significance of this study. This paper takes our country P2P network loan platform as the research object, uses the literature research method and the empirical research method, carries on the research to its financial risk. On this basis, a P2P network lending platform financial risk early warning system is constructed. First of all, study and research on P2P network lending and financial risk early warning literature at home and abroad. It lays a foundation for the writing of subsequent papers; Secondly, on the basis of the research of industry development, main risk classification and causes, the financial risk of P2P network lending platform is analyzed comprehensively. Thirdly, the financial risk early warning index is designed based on CAMEL evaluation system, and the financial risk early warning system of P2P network lending platform is constructed by factor analysis and SVM model. Finally, 20 typical platforms are selected as samples to study, combined with the financial risk characteristics of P2P network lending platform and the results of empirical analysis. In this paper, we find that the financial risk of the P2P network lending platform is mainly manifested in capital risk, liquidity risk. In the aspects of profitability risk and asset quality risk, liquidity risk is more prominent, which has a great influence on financial risk. The index based on CAMEL evaluation system can comprehensively reflect the financial risk of P2P network lending platform, and the early warning accuracy of the SVM early-warning model is high. The early warning model based on kernel function Sigmoid has the highest accuracy and can accurately predict the financial risk of P2P network lending platform. On this basis, P2P network lending platform can improve the awareness of financial risk prevention, improve the risk management system, establish data statistical monitoring mechanism to prevent risks. With the continuous optimization of the financial market environment, P2P network lending industry will usher in a new round of development, and become an important driving force to promote the development of our financial industry.
【学位授予单位】：陕西科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F724.6;F832.4;F830.42

【参考文献】