中国光伏行业过度投资问题的研究

发布时间：2018-02-01 06:18

本文关键词： 中国光伏光伏产业产能过剩过度投资　出处：《上海交通大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文首先通过对国内外文献的梳理和回顾，并具体介绍了自由现金流和过度投资的相关理论，为全文奠定理论基础；然后介绍了光伏的相关知识和中国光伏行业的发展特色和现状，并且从市场的供给和需求方面分析了中国光伏行业面临的产能过剩问题，并指出这一供大于求的局面在近几年内还是会持续存在；接着在Richardson关于过度投资理论的基础上，根据中国光伏行业的特点，选取了30家在国内外上市的中国光伏企业2003年到2012年的数据，进行进行实证分析，建立投资预期模型，估计企业的适度投资和过度投资水平，验证了我国光伏企业是否存在过度投资的现象；最后，针对我国光伏行业出现的过度投资现象，指出除了市场经济的不理性，企业投资的盲目性，也存在各地各级政府，为了政绩考核，各个金融机构“嫌平爱富”，在整个产业循环周期当中，起到了推波助澜的作用，值得企业、金融机构及政府部门深深思考。产能过剩既是长期困扰中国经济健康发展的一大难题，也是当前产业结构调整中亟待解决的突出问题，产能过剩通常存在于诸如钢铁、水泥传统产业，但近年来一些新新领域也出现了产能过剩的情况，光伏产业即是其中出现产能过剩问题的行业之一。在全球积极推行低碳经济的背景下，光伏产业作为新能源产业的一部分，已经列入我国七大重点发展的战略性新兴产业，因此对光伏行业的产能过剩问题进行研究具有非常重要的显示意义。光伏产业作为新兴产业，还处在产业生命周期的初级阶段，从供给方面来看，由于国家政策的支持以及下游进入门槛较低，大量厂商进入光伏产业，各地光伏产业园如雨后春笋般拔地而起，产能迅速扩张；而需求方面，由于基础设施，，配套设施不完善，光伏发电成本较目前的其他发电方式，如火电，水电，成本较高，限制了光伏产品的市场的增长。由于国内市场局限性，我国光伏产业对国外市场依赖严重，特别是对于欧洲市场的依赖性特别强，而近年来，由于金融危机，经济衰退，很多欧美光伏应用大国都削减了光伏发电的补贴，使得欧洲光伏市场的需求骤降，全球太阳能装机容量增长放缓，但是中国光伏企业生产能力全球占比超过70%，甚至超过2013年全球新增的装机容量，产能过剩问题严重。同时，我国目前正处于转轨时期，在这期间，不完善的要素市场，财税体制，政绩考核体质以及地方政府不恰当的市场干预行为，导致“市场”不能充分的发挥作用，过剩的产能不能以“市场”的手段降低到合理的手段，这些也导致了光伏产业产能过剩，并且会造成供大于需的局面还将长期存在。通过选择目前在国内，美国和香港上市的中国领先的光伏企业的财务数据，对此进行分析，我们可以发现，以会计数据为基础，我国光伏产业在一定时期内存在过度投资的现象。对此，本文认为对于过度投资现象的出现，不能认为的紧急刹车，而是应该积极的筹划光伏产业的长远发展，一方面加速基础设置，准入条件，管制制度的完善，为光伏产业发展构建良好的制度环境；另一方面要避免地方政府对于光伏企业投资行为的不当干预，积极发挥市场经济的作用，让落后的产能通过市场的途径自然而然的淘汰，鼓励企业之间的收购兼并，提高整个行业的竞争力；其次，要积极开拓国内光伏市场，完善补贴政策，在符合国家战略长远的发展前提下，强化光伏产业技术创新，持续降低产品成本，从而促进我国光伏产业健康快速发展。对于新兴行业的发展初期，特别是“财富效应”巨大的行业，大量的资本的涌入，也许产能过剩，供需不平衡的现象是经常出现的，企业之间扩大资本性支出或许存在一定的博弈，这就需要政府及时发挥其“无形的手”的作用，完善整个行业规划，提高产业进入门槛，促进行业健康、有序的发展；同时，对于潜在的“贸易战”，需要企业提高应变能力。
[Abstract]:Firstly, through the literature review and the review of related theories and introduces free cash flow and over investment, which lays the theoretical foundation for the thesis; then introduces the related knowledge and the development characteristics of photovoltaic Chinese photovoltaic industry and the status quo, and from the market supply and demand are analyzed China photovoltaic industry the problem of excess production capacity, and points out that the oversupply situation in recent years and will continue to exist; then based on Richardson about excessive investment theory, according to the characteristics of Chinese photovoltaic industry, select 30 listed in the domestic and foreign Chinese photovoltaic enterprise from 2003 to 2012 data, for empirical analysis. The establishment of the expected investment model, estimation of moderate investment enterprises and over investment level, verify whether there is the phenomenon of excessive investment of PV companies in China; finally, for me Over investment in the photovoltaic industry, pointed out that in addition to the irrational market economy, blind investment, there are also the governments at all levels, for the performance evaluation of various financial institutions "too flat Aifo", in the whole industry cycle, played a role in fueling, worthy of the company, financial institutions and government departments think deeply.
A big problem of overcapacity both long plagued the healthy development of China economy, but also the current outstanding problems in the adjustment of industrial structure to be solved, overcapacity is usually found in traditional industries such as steel, cement, but in recent years some new areas of overcapacity situation, the photovoltaic industry is one of one of the industry overcapacity problem in the whole world. Actively promote the low carbon economy, the photovoltaic industry as part of the new energy industry, has been included in the seven focus on the development of China's strategic emerging industries, so the PV industry overcapacity problem has very important significance to study the display.
The photovoltaic industry as an emerging industry, is still in the initial stage of the industry life cycle, from the supply side, due to the support of national policy and the downstream low barriers to entry, a large number of manufacturers to enter the photovoltaic industry, the photovoltaic industry around the park such as bamboo shoots after a spring rain like springing up, the rapid expansion of production capacity; and the demand side, due to infrastructure, inadequate facilities, the cost of photovoltaic power generation than other power generation methods at present such as thermal power, hydropower, high cost, limited the PV market growth.
Due to limitations of the domestic market, China's PV industry depends heavily on foreign markets, especially the dependence on the European market is very strong, but in recent years, due to the financial crisis, the economic recession, many European and American countries have cut PV photovoltaic subsidies, the sudden drop in demand in Europe PV market, global solar energy installed capacity growth slowed, but the production capacity of Chinese global photovoltaic enterprises accounted for more than 70%, even more than the global new installed capacity in 2013, the serious problem of overcapacity.
At the same time, our country is now in the transition period, during this period, the market is not perfect, the elements of the tax system, market intervention and local government performance evaluation body not appropriate, lead to the "market" can not fully play the role of excess capacity can not be reduced to a reasonable means to "market" means that in the photovoltaic industry overcapacity, and will cause the need for more than the situation will exist for a long time.
By analyzing the financial data of China's leading photovoltaic enterprises listed in the US and Hongkong, we can find that based on accounting data, China's photovoltaic industry has a phenomenon of over investment in a certain period.
In this regard, this paper thinks the excessive investment phenomenon, the emergency brake can not be considered, but should be long-term development planning of photovoltaic industry actively, on the one hand, accelerate infrastructure, access conditions, perfect control system, build the good system environment for the development of photovoltaic industry; on the other hand to avoid the improper intervention of the local government for photovoltaic enterprises the investment behavior, actively play the role of the market economy, make the backward production capacity by the way of market naturally eliminated, encourage enterprises between mergers and acquisitions, improve the competitiveness of the whole industry; secondly, to actively explore the domestic PV market, improve the subsidy policy, in accordance with the national long-term development strategy under the premise of strengthening technological innovation of photovoltaic industry last, reduce product cost, so as to promote the healthy and rapid development of China's photovoltaic industry.
For the early development of the emerging industry, especially the industry "wealth effect" huge, massive capital inflows, perhaps overcapacity, supply and demand imbalance often occurs between enterprises expand capital expenditures, there may be a certain game, which requires the government to play the "invisible hand" role. Improve the whole industry planning, improve the industry barriers to entry, and promote the healthy and orderly development; at the same time, the potential for a "trade war", enterprises need to improve the ability.

【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.6;F832.48

【参考文献】