我国房产政策抑制泡沫有效性的实验研究

发布时间：2018-02-01 23:28

本文关键词： 房产泡沫房产税组合拳实验经济学泡沫指数　出处：《工业技术经济》2017年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：近年来,我国一、二线城市的房地产价格普遍迅速上涨,出现了较为严重房产泡沫。2017年,我国政府提出的房地产税改革、一揽子政策组合拳等举措再次引发激烈讨论。本文采用实验经济学方法,在计算机化的实验环境中设置房产交易市场,模拟房产交易,从而分析了房产价格泡沫产生的原因与过程,检验了我国现存各项房产政策抑制房产市场泡沫的作用大小。结论为:房产价格泡沫主要产生于交易者的"竞争非理性",增加交易费用、单方面征收房产税对房产泡沫的抑制作用并不明显,限贷、提高首付比例等政策可较为有效地抑制房产泡沫;房产政策的"组合拳"往往对抑制泡沫更为有效。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the real estate prices in the first and second tier cities of our country have generally risen rapidly, resulting in a more serious real estate bubble. In 2017, our government put forward the real estate tax reform. This paper uses the experimental economics method to set up the real estate transaction market in the computerized experimental environment, and simulates the real estate transaction. Thus, the cause and process of the real estate price bubble are analyzed. This paper examines the effects of the existing real estate policies on restraining the bubble in the real estate market. The conclusion is that the real estate price bubble mainly arises from the "competitive irrationality" of the traders and increases the transaction costs. The unilateral collection of real estate tax on the housing bubble suppression effect is not obvious, limit loans, increase the proportion of down payments and other policies can be more effective to curb the real estate bubble; A combination of housing policies tends to be more effective in containing bubbles.
【作者单位】：暨南大学国际商学院;
【分类号】：F299.23
【正文快照】： 近年来,我国一、二线城市的房地产价格普遍迅速上涨,出现了较为严重房产泡沫。2016年,中央将“去库存”作为房地产市场调控的重点,2月,央行降低首套房首付比例后,各地政府房产政策全面放松,全国大中城市房价再次疯狂上涨。国家统计局数据显示,2016年共14个城市全年房价上涨超

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