面向三次产业的金融错配影响技术进步效应的研究

发布时间：2018-02-08 13:24

本文关键词： 金融错配技术进步上市公司　出处：《哈尔滨商业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着经济体制改革的不断深入,我国经济经历了举世瞩目的超高速发展的黄金时期。但在这个阶段,我国的经济增长主要依赖高投入的粗放式发展模式,而在当前中国经济"新常态"的背景下粗放的经济发展模式必然不能满足经济的可持续发展。因此,我们将目光转向经济增长的另一个渠道:即通过资源配置效率的提高实现经济增长。提高资源利用效率方式有两种,一方面依靠生产力水平的提升;另一方面则依靠资源的优化配置,使资源配置接近最优的帕累托水平。但短期内,生产力水平变化程度有限,使技术进步效应迅速提高很难。相比之下,使资源得到最优配置是提高要素生产率水平的更合理途径,也是深刻理解可持续发展,探寻我国下一步经济发展动力的要求。本文利用2009-2014年我国A股上市公司财务报表数据,基于三次产业16个行业微观层面数据,实证研究金融错配与技术进步效应之间的定量关系,试图从微观层面的技术进步角度发掘金融错配影响经济增长的机制。第一,本文构建一个理论模型,得出企业的技术进步和金融错配之间的关系,从金融错配角度重新审视不同行业、不同地区和不同所有制企业间的技术进步差异。第二,基于CD(Cobb-Douglas)生产函数,运用OLS、OP半参数法估算能代表企业生产效率的技术进步效应,有效解决传统测算方法中的内生性和样本误差问题。其次根据历年企业财务报表数据构建代表企业金融错配程度的指标。第三,选择行业、地域和所有制因素作为模型的虚拟变量,验证金融错配与技术进步效应之间的数量关系。研究发现,在样本区间内除了租赁和商务服务行业外的其他各行业的技术进步效应都处于下降趋势,和经济增长趋势基本吻合,租赁和商务服务业、房地产行业和建筑业的技术进步效应在三次产业中处于领先地位,这和国内房地产市场呈现爆发式增长有一定关系。总体上东部地区的技术进步效应大于中部地区,中部地区的技术进步大于西部地区,和地区间经济发展有正相关关系。单从技术进步效应看,农林牧渔行业的技术进步效应要高于信息技术行业,若考虑金融错配因素,信息技术行业的技术进步效应高于农林牧渔行业,说明传统行业受到的影响比新兴行业大,另一种解释为新兴行业主要集中在东部地区,而东部地区的金融错配在一定程度上是促进技术进步效应的提高。各行业内,不考虑所有制金融错配时,私营企业的技术进步效应要高于国营企业,加入所有制金融错配因素后,私营技术进步效应明显要低于国营企业,因此样本期间内国有企业的技术进步效应反而会大于私营企业。以2014年为例,如果降低私营企业的金融错配程度,使私营企业享有国有企业同等的资金成本和便利程度,那么国民经济增加值约能增长 1.518%。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of the economic system reform, China's economy has experienced a golden period of super-high speed development, which has attracted worldwide attention. However, at this stage, China's economic growth mainly depends on the extensive development model of high investment. However, under the background of the current "new normal" of China's economy, the extensive economic development model will not be able to satisfy the sustainable development of the economy. We turn our eyes to another channel of economic growth: to achieve economic growth through improving the efficiency of resource allocation. There are two ways to improve the efficiency of resource utilization: on the one hand, we rely on the improvement of productivity level; On the other hand, depending on the optimal allocation of resources, the allocation of resources is close to the optimal Pareto level. However, in the short term, the level of productivity change is limited, so it is difficult to improve the effect of technological progress rapidly. The optimal allocation of resources is not only a more reasonable way to improve the level of factor productivity, but also a requirement to understand the sustainable development and explore the motive force of our next step of economic development. This paper makes use of the financial statement data of China's A-share listed companies from 2009-2014. Based on the microcosmic data of 16 industries in three industries, this paper empirically studies the quantitative relationship between financial mismatch and technological progress effect, and tries to explore the mechanism of financial mismatch affecting economic growth from the microcosmic perspective of technological progress. This paper constructs a theoretical model, obtains the relationship between technological progress and financial mismatch of enterprises, and reexamines the differences of technological progress between different industries, different regions and different ownership enterprises from the angle of financial mismatch. Based on the production function of CD Cobb-Douglas, the technological progress effect which can represent the production efficiency of enterprises is estimated by using OLSU op semi-parameter method. Effectively solve the problem of endogeneity and sample error in the traditional calculation methods. Secondly, according to the enterprise financial statement data over the years to construct the index representing the degree of financial mismatch. Third, select the industry, Regional and ownership factors are used as virtual variables of the model to verify the quantitative relationship between financial mismatch and technological progress effect. In the sample range, the technological progress effect of other industries except leasing and business service industries is in a downward trend, which basically coincides with the trend of economic growth. The technological progress effects of the real estate industry and the construction industry are in the leading position among the three industries, which is related to the explosive growth of the domestic real estate market. In general, the technological progress effect in the eastern region is greater than that in the central region. The technological progress in the central region is greater than that in the western region, and there is a positive correlation between the technological progress in the central region and the economic development among the regions. From the perspective of the technological progress effect, the technological progress effect of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry is higher than that of the information technology industry, if the financial mismatch factor is considered, The technological progress effect of the information technology industry is higher than that of the agriculture, forestry, pastoral and fishery industries, indicating that the traditional industries are more affected than the emerging industries. Another explanation is that the emerging industries are mainly concentrated in the eastern region. However, the financial mismatch in the eastern region is to a certain extent to promote the improvement of the effect of technological progress. In all industries, when the ownership financial mismatch is not considered, the technological progress effect of private enterprises is higher than that of state-owned enterprises. After adding the mismatch factor of ownership finance, the effect of private technological progress is obviously lower than that of state-owned enterprises, so the technological progress effect of state-owned enterprises in the sample period will be greater than that of private enterprises. In 2014, for example, If the degree of financial mismatch of private enterprises is reduced so that private enterprises enjoy the same degree of capital cost and convenience of state-owned enterprises, the added value of national economy can increase by 1.518%.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨商业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.51;F124

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