基于经营剩余收益模型的TG公司股权价值评估

发布时间：2018-03-24 17:20

本文选题：股权价值评估　切入点：经营剩余收益模型　出处：《华南理工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：TG公司正在筹划上市，，公司的董事会和管理层需要对公司股权价值做出正确评价，从而为公司首发股票定价提供参考。因此有必要科学合理地对TG公司的股权价值进行评估。首先结合TG公司的特点对常用估值模型进行比较后确定经营剩余收益模型是最适合TG公司的估值方法；接着结合对该模型的理论剖析总结出运用经营剩余收益模型对TG公司估值的步骤；然后按照该步骤对TG公司的股权价值进行评估。第一步对TG公司是否满足经营剩余收益模型的应用前提进行检验；第二步对TG公司的资产负债表和利润表分别进行调整，以满足干净盈余关系，并区分经营性活动和金融性活动，为估值参数分析和预测奠定基础；第三步对TG公司进行商业分析，深入分析了TG公司所处的内外部环境，找出对公司未来销售、成本等影响重大的因素，为参数的分析和预测提供支持；第四步在前两步的基础上，结合TG公司的历史财务数据、发展趋势和经营计划，分析和预测各个估值参数，并运用BAPM模型计算TG公司的经营资本成本；第五步在预测得到参数的基础上，运用经营剩余收益模型估测出TG公司的股权价值；第六步对股权价值评估结果进行敏感性分析。最终估测出TG公司在2013年12月31日的实体价值为133.961.30万元，减去该时点上TG公司的净金融负债账面价值26,652.28万元，得到TG公司2013年12月31日的股权价值为107,309.01万元；通过单因素敏感性分析发现税后经营收益率PM、净经营资产周转率ATO和经营资本成本K是影响TG公司股权价值的关键因素；通过多因素敏感性分析得到TG公司股权价值可能变动的范围，其中最悲观值是65,279.79万元，最乐观值是399,018.04万元。国内证券机构一般采用市盈率法对首发股票上市的企业估值，通过对比得出市盈率法计算结果低于经营剩余收益模型的估值结果，因此若用市盈率法对TG公司进行估值将导致TG公司的股权价值被低估。本文的研究利于对TG公司股权价值做出正确评价，为TG公司上市定价提供参考。同时运用经营剩余收益模型的估值研究还能为同行业其他企业的股权价值评估提供借鉴。
[Abstract]:TG company is planning to go public, the board of directors and the management of the company need to make a correct evaluation of the equity value of the company, so it is necessary to evaluate the equity value of TG company scientifically and reasonably in order to provide a reference for the pricing of the company's initial stock. Firstly, combined with the characteristics of TG Company, it is determined that the operating residual income model is the most suitable valuation method for TG Company. Then combined with the theoretical analysis of the model summed up the use of operating surplus income model to TG company valuation steps; Then according to this step, the equity value of TG company is evaluated. The first step is to test whether TG company meets the application premise of operating residual income model; the second step is to adjust the balance sheet and income statement of TG company separately. In order to satisfy the clean surplus relationship, and distinguish the operating activity from the financial activity, it lays the foundation for the analysis and prediction of the valuation parameters. The third step is to conduct a commercial analysis of TG Company, and analyze the internal and external environment in which TG Company is located. Find out the factors that affect the company's future sales and cost, and provide support for the analysis and prediction of the parameters; the fourth step is based on the first two steps, combining the historical financial data, development trend and business plan of TG Company. Analysis and prediction of the various valuation parameters and use of BAPM model to calculate the operating capital cost of TG. The fifth step is to estimate the equity value of TG company by using the operating surplus income model on the basis of predicting the parameters. The sixth step carries on the sensitivity analysis to the stock value appraisal result. Finally, it was estimated that the entity value of TG company on December 31, 2013 was 133.961.3 million yuan, minus the carrying value of TG company's net financial liabilities at that time, and the equity value of TG company on December 31, 2013 was 1.0730901 billion yuan. Through the single factor sensitivity analysis, it is found that ATO, ATO and operating capital cost K are the key factors influencing the equity value of TG company. Through multi-factor sensitivity analysis, the range of possible changes in equity value of TG company is obtained, in which the most pessimistic value is 652.7979 million yuan and the most optimistic value is 3.9901804 billion yuan. Domestic securities institutions generally use the price-earnings ratio method to evaluate the listed enterprises. By comparison, it is concluded that the results calculated by the price-earnings ratio method are lower than those of the operating surplus income model. Therefore, the valuation of TG by price-earnings ratio will result in undervaluation of its equity value. The research in this paper is conducive to making a correct evaluation of the equity value of TG Company and providing a reference for the listed pricing of TG Company. At the same time, the valuation study using the operating surplus income model can also provide a reference for the equity valuation of other enterprises in the same industry.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F275;F832.51

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