利率市场化背景下利率管理模式研究

发布时间：2018-04-24 23:08

本文选题：利率市场化 + 公开市场操作　；参考：《安徽大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：2015年10月24日存款利率上限的放开标志着中国利率市场化进程结束。中国人民银行作为利率管理部门,选择何种市场起决定作用下的利率管理模式以促进经济金融健康发展影响深远而重大。在介绍中国利率市场化改革及随之进行的利率管理模式改变的基础上,提出利率市场化后现行利率管理模式的弊端及局限性,亟需寻求一种新型利率完全市场化下的利率管理模式。通过研究比较国际上具有代表性国家在利率市场化后采取的利率调控模式,即以美日为代表的"公开市场操作"与英国、印度的"利率走廊"的实践效应及优缺点与发展趋势,并结合中国实际情况,作者认为"利率走廊"模式更适合中国国情,对完善中国利率市场化完成下的利率管理模式提出政策建议,包括模拟构建利率市场化完成初期阶段的"利率走廊""对市场利率予以定量引导调控及强化利率走廊配套设施建设,同时加强行业自律管理、提高金融机构利率定价水平和风险防范能力等定性措施予以指导。首先,鉴于本文研究的背景与基础是利率市场化改革,作者介绍了与其相关的概念和理论基础,包括"公开市场操作"、"利率走廊"、利率传导机制理论等。随后本文介绍了中国利率市场化进程及利率管理模式的变迁,其中,利率市场化改革按时间维度划分,包括三个进程,第一进程涉及银行间市场,包括同业拆借与债券等利率;第二、三进程涉及均为金融机构,先为贷款利率,后为存款利率。利率管理模式实现了由"粗放式"单轨管理模式向"半开放式"双轨管理模式再向"基本市场化"双轨管理模式的转变,利率市场化完成前采取以数量型调控为主的公开市场操作对部分市场化利率引导与调控。其次,本文论述了利率市场化完成后现行利率管理模式的弊端,如影响资源的配置效率、阻碍金融机构发展、弱化宏观经济调控效果、制约中国经济与国际经济接轨、减弱数量型调控效果等,亟需利率市场化完成后一种新型市场起决定作用下的利率管理方式。为实现目标,寻求国际上的先进经验予以指导国内实践,比较分析国际上两种主要的利率调控模式"公开市场操作"、"利率走廊"在美国、日本、德国、欧洲、英国、加拿大、印度的实践效应与两种调控方式的优缺点及发展趋势,发现"利率走廊"模式更为直接有效、更易形成稳定合理的公众预期、更大程度发挥市场作用等优点,且较公开市场模式实施效果较好。在寻求国际经验的基础上,结合中国货币需求稳定性逐渐下降、数量型调控效果减弱、利率走廊调控模式为主的条件(利率体系不断丰富、微观经济主体利率敏感性和承受能力不断增强、中国人民银行利率间接宏观调控能力不断提高)日渐成熟的实际,认为中国更适宜"利率走廊"模式。再次,本文提出中国市场起决定作用下的利率管理模式建议,包括构建利率市场化完成初期阶段"利率走廊"、强化利率走廊配套设施建设(完善央行抵押品制度、发展多层次金融市场与多种类金融产品等)、加强行业自律管理、提高金融机构利率定价水平和利率风险防范能力。构建的中国利率市场化完成初期阶段"利率走廊"上限为20天内流动性再贷款利率、再贴现利率、6个月以下贷款基准利率的平均值,下限为超额存款准备金利率、央行28日正回购利率、央行7日逆回购利率的平均值,选取的政策指导利率唯一,为再贴现利率、央行28日正回购利率、央行7日逆回购利率的平均值,市场基准利率为隔夜市场回购定盘利率。最后,本文总结了主要结论:一是利率市场化完成后亟需寻求一种新型市场起决定作用下的利率管理模式。二是"利率走廊"调控模式适宜中国国情。三是模拟构建利率市场化完成初期阶段"利率走廊",引导控制市场基准利率浮动空间,通过利率传导机制实现货币当局意图;市场起决定作用后的长期目标是建立正式利率走廊,下限为超额存款准备金利率、上限为常备借贷机制的利率。四是在建立"利率走廊"定量调控的基础上,辅之以加强利率走廊配套设施建设、发挥市场利率定价自律机制作用、提高金融机构利率定价水平和利率风险防范能力等定性管理手段;同时,中国人民银行不放弃利率管理权,在特殊情况、特殊时期对利率干预指导,守住不发生区域性系统性金融风险底线。
[Abstract]:The opening of the upper limit of the deposit interest rate in October 24, 2015 marks the end of the process of China's interest rate marketization. As an interest rate management department, the people's Bank of China, as an interest rate management department, chooses the mode of interest rate management to play a decisive role in promoting the healthy development of economy and finance. On the basis of the change of the rate management model, the disadvantages and limitations of the current interest rate management mode after the interest rate marketization are put forward. It is urgent to seek a new interest rate management mode under the full market of the new interest rate. The practice effect, advantages and disadvantages and development trend of "opening market operation" with the "interest rate corridor" in Britain and India, and combining with the actual situation in China, the author believes that the "interest rate corridor" model is more suitable for China's national conditions, and puts forward some policy suggestions on improving the interest rate management mode under the completion of China's interest rate marketization, including the early stage of the completion of the simulation of interest rate marketization. The "interest rate corridor" in the stage of "the quantitative guidance and control of the market interest rate" and the strengthening of the construction of the supporting facilities for the interest rate corridor, at the same time, strengthen the self-discipline management of the industry, improve the interest rate pricing level and the risk prevention ability of the financial institutions. First, the author introduces the background and foundation of the research. The related conceptual and theoretical basis, including "open market operation", "interest rate corridor" and the theory of interest rate conduction mechanism. This paper then introduces the process of interest rate marketization and the change of interest rate management mode in China. In this paper, the reform of interest rate marketization is divided into three processes according to the time dimension, and the first process involves interbank markets, including the interbank market. Interbank lending and bond interest rate; the second, third process involves all financial institutions, first the loan interest rate, and then the deposit interest rate. The interest rate management mode realizes the transformation from the "extensive" monorail management model to the "semi open" double track management model to the "basic marketization" dual track management model, and the interest rate market is completed in quantity before the interest rate marketization is completed. Secondly, this paper discusses the disadvantages of the current interest rate management mode after the completion of the marketization of interest rates, such as the efficiency of the allocation of resources, the hindrance of the development of the financial institutions, the weakening of the effect of macroeconomic regulation and the integration of the Chinese economy with the international economy, and the weakening of the quantity profile. In order to achieve the goal, the international advanced experience is sought to guide the domestic practice, and the two major international interest rate regulation modes "open market operation" are compared and analyzed, and the "interest rate corridor" is in the United States, Japan, Germany, Europe and the United Kingdom. The practice effect of Canada and India and the advantages and disadvantages of the two modes of regulation and development show that the "interest rate corridor" model is more direct and effective. It is easier to form a stable and reasonable public expectation, to play the role of the market in a greater degree, and better than the open market model. The stability of the currency demand has gradually declined, the effect of the quantitative regulation and control is weakened and the interest rate corridor regulation mode is the main condition (the interest rate system is constantly enriched, the interest rate sensitivity and the bearing capacity of the microeconomic subject is constantly enhanced, the interest rate of the people's Bank of China is increasing continuously), and the interest rate is more suitable for China. Thirdly, this paper puts forward the suggestion of the interest rate management mode under the decisive role of the Chinese market, including the construction of the interest rate corridor in the initial stage of the interest rate marketization, strengthening the construction of the supporting facilities for the interest rate corridor (perfecting the central bank's collateral system, developing the multi-level financial market and multi kinds of financial products, etc.), and strengthening the self-discipline management of the industry. The interest rate pricing level and interest rate risk prevention ability of high financial institutions. The "interest rate corridor" upper limit of the initial stage of China's interest rate marketization is 20 days liquidity reloan interest rate, rediscount interest rate, the average value of the benchmark interest rate under 6 months, the lower limit is the excess Reserve interest rate, the central bank 28 day repo rate, the central bank 7 days The average value of the counter repo rate, the only policy guiding interest rate selected, the rediscount interest rate, the 28 day repo rate of the central bank, the average value of the counter repo rate of the central bank on 7 days, the market benchmark interest rate as the repo rate of the overnight market. Finally, the main conclusion is that the first is that after the completion of the interest rate marketization, it is urgent to seek a new market. Two is the mode of interest rate management under the fixed action. The "interest rate corridor" regulation mode is suitable for China's national conditions. Three is to simulate the construction of the interest rate corridor in the initial stage of completion of the interest rate marketization, guide the control of the floating space of the benchmark interest rate and realize the intention of the monetary authorities through the interest rate transmission mechanism; the long-term goal after the decisive role of the market is to establish a formal system. The interest rate corridor, the lower limit is the excess deposit reserve interest rate, the upper limit is the interest rate of the permanent lending mechanism. Four, on the basis of establishing the quantitative regulation of the "interest rate corridor", supplemented by strengthening the construction of the supporting facilities for the interest rate corridor, playing the role of the self-discipline mechanism of the market interest rate pricing, and improving the pricing level of the interest rate and the ability to guard against the risk of the interest rate. At the same time, the people's Bank of China does not give up the interest rate management right. In special circumstances and special period, the interest rate intervention should be guided by the people's Bank of China, and the bottom line of regional systemic financial risk is not kept.

【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.5

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