金融开放、短期跨境资本流动与资本市场稳定——基于宏观审慎监管视角

发布时间：2018-05-24 15:12

本文选题：金融开放 + 短期跨境资本流动　；参考：《浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版)》2017年05期

【摘要】：随着我国金融开放程度不断提高,短期跨境资本流动对资本市场的影响日益增强。在此背景下,构建MS-VAR模型实证分析短期跨境资本流动影响我国资本市场稳定的传导机制,结果表明:(1)由于我国资本账户仍处于较严格的管制状态,短期跨境资本流动对资本市场的直接影响较弱且不显著;(2)在间接影响机制中,短期跨境资本流动通过货币供给渠道的传导冲击作用较为强烈,而通过银行信贷和汇率变动渠道的传导作用较弱;(3)当受到外界突发事件冲击时,各变量波动性显著增加,并形成非对称效应。针对金融开放进程下短期跨境资本流动的风险,应构建宏观审慎视角下的跨境资本流动管理框架,并促进宏观经济政策、宏观审慎监管和结构性改革间的协调配合,从而有效防范系统性金融风险,维护我国资本市场的稳定发展。
[Abstract]:With the increasing degree of financial opening, the influence of short-term cross-border capital flow on capital market is increasing. In this context, the MS-VAR model is constructed to analyze the transmission mechanism of short-term cross-border capital flows affecting the stability of China's capital market. The results show that the capital account of China is still under strict control. The direct impact of short-term cross-border capital flows on capital markets is weak and not significant. (2) in the indirect impact mechanism, short-term cross-border capital flows have a strong transmission impact through money supply channels. But the conduction effect of bank credit and exchange rate change channel is weaker than that of other countries) when it is impacted by the external unexpected events, the volatility of the variables increases significantly, and the asymmetric effect is formed. In view of the risk of short-term cross-border capital flows in the process of financial opening, we should construct a management framework of cross-border capital flows from a macro-prudential perspective, and promote coordination and coordination among macroeconomic policies, macro-prudential regulation and structural reforms. So as to effectively guard against systemic financial risks and maintain the stable development of our capital market.
【作者单位】：浙江大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F832.51;F832.6

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