从货币失踪看货币在资本市场中的演变

发布时间：2018-06-06 05:44

本文选题：全口径广义货币 + 货币失踪　；参考：《华东理工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：自弗里德曼对货币供应层次进行划分以来,对货币供应层次的调整一直在进行着。当前,货币供应指标M1、M2与价格之间的稳定关系普遍消失,货币供应层次的调整更具有紧迫性。本文从“货币失踪”现象出发,认为随着资本市场的发展及“金融脱媒”现象的出现,货币并非真正失踪,而是从银行系统转移到了资本市场,并在那里创造出更大规模的货币。从而整个社会总的货币供应由社会流通现金(MO)、银行系统货币(Mb)和资本市场货币(Mc)三部分构成,全口径广义货币供应指标亦为M3=M2+Mc。通过分析美国全口径广义货币的规模和结构,我们发现Mc无论是在规模、增速还是波动幅度上均大于M2,已在整个货币系统中居于支配地位。格兰杰因果检验也表明仅用M1、M2来研究价格现在确已失效,但如将资本市场货币Mc与其结合则依然可解释价格变动,货币数量论亦重新有效。最后,基于中美货币量比较中的三大误区,本文使用全口径广义货币供应指标M3对中美两国之间的货币量进行综合比较,发现美国才是真正意义上的货币大国。
[Abstract]:Since Friedman divided the level of money supply, the adjustment of the level of money supply has been going on. At present, the stable relationship between money supply index M1M 2 and price is generally disappeared, and the adjustment of money supply level is more urgent. Based on the phenomenon of "missing money", this paper holds that with the development of capital market and the appearance of "financial disintermediation", money is not really missing, but is transferred from the banking system to the capital market. And create a larger currency there. Thus, the total money supply of the whole society is composed of three parts: the cash circulation of the society, the money in the banking system Mb) and the money in the capital market. The full-caliber broad money supply index is also M 3 / M 2 McM 2. By analyzing the size and structure of American full-caliber broad money, we find that Mc is larger than M2 in terms of scale, growth and fluctuation, and has become dominant in the whole monetary system. The Granger causality test also shows that only using M1M 2 to study prices is now invalid, but if the capital market money MC is combined with it, it can still explain the price changes, and the quantitative theory of money is also valid again. Finally, based on the three misunderstandings in the comparison of the currency quantity between China and the United States, this paper makes a comprehensive comparison of the money quantity between China and the United States by using the full-caliber broad money supply index M3, and finds that the United States is the real currency power.
【学位授予单位】：华东理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.5;F837.12

【参考文献】