我国货币供应量对股票价格的影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-07 18:30

本文选题：货币供应量 + 股票价格　；参考：《上海外国语大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：任何经济体的发展都需要金融的大力支持,近年来以股票、房地产市场为代表的资产价格剧烈波动导致了一系列的金融危机甚至是经济衰退。面对这一状况,大部分经济体均通过采用不同的货币政策手段以维护金融市场的平稳运行或刺激经济的繁荣发展。作为我国经济晴雨表的中国股市,他的巨幅的波动无疑会对我国的实体经济造成巨大的影响。由于我国股市对经济的重要影响,分析货币供应量与股票市场的关系,能够有效帮助正确货币政策的制定以及实施,引导股市健康的走向,防止其频繁波动对实体经济造成不良冲击。本文的研究采用理论结合实证的方法,分析我国货币供给量对股票价格的影响。理论方面,通过梳理我国货币政策及股市概况,总结货币供应量对股价的传导机制,分析其对股价的影响。实证方面,通过分析1996年1月至2017年2月间的货币供应量与股票市场的变化,研究其对股票市场的影响。利用Eviews软件,选取我国各层次货币供应量(M0、M1、M2)、货币供应结构变量及上证综指的经过季度调整后的月度数据,运用向量自回归模型进行实证分析,以验证货币供应量对股价的影响。实证分析中所涉及的计量方法有:时间序列平稳性检验(ADF检验)、脉冲响应函数、格兰杰因果检验。根据研究结果,得出我国各层次货币供应量均会对股价产生一定的正向冲击,而货币供应结构中,M1-M0能够对股价产生正向影响。最后鉴于研究的结果提出政策建议。
[Abstract]:The development of any economy needs strong financial support. In recent years, the volatile asset prices represented by the stock and real estate markets have led to a series of financial crises and even economic recessions. Faced with this situation, most economies adopt different monetary policies to maintain the smooth operation of financial markets or stimulate economic prosperity. As a barometer of China's economy, China's stock market will undoubtedly have a huge impact on the real economy. Since China's stock market has an important impact on the economy, analyzing the relationship between money supply and stock market can effectively help the formulation and implementation of the correct monetary policy and guide the healthy trend of the stock market. To prevent its frequent fluctuations on the real economy caused adverse impact. In this paper, the influence of money supply on stock price is analyzed by theoretical and empirical methods. Theoretically, the paper summarizes the transmission mechanism of money supply to stock price and analyzes its influence on stock price by combing the general situation of monetary policy and stock market. From January 1996 to February 2017, the paper analyzes the change of money supply and stock market, and studies its influence on stock market. By using Eviews software, this paper selects the money supply of different levels in China, including the money supply structure variable and the quarterly adjusted monthly data of the Shanghai Composite Index, and makes an empirical analysis by using the vector autoregressive model to verify the influence of money supply on the stock price. The measurement methods involved in empirical analysis are: time series stationary test ADF test impulse response function Granger causality test. According to the research results, it is concluded that the money supply at all levels in China will have a positive impact on the stock price, while M1-M0 can have a positive impact on the stock price in the money supply structure. Finally, in view of the results of the study, policy recommendations are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：上海外国语大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.51;F822.2

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