基于家庭借贷消费行为的货币政策有效性研究

发布时间：2018-10-18 07:25

【摘要】：随着我国经济不断发展和相关的体制改革，在未来收入不确定和医疗、养老、住房等大额刚性支出不断增加的情况下，我国家庭居民一直保持着“高储蓄、低消费”的消费模式，较少采用跨期消费模式来实现即期消费，这对我国经济的增长是很不利的。特别是1997亚洲金融危以后，我国突然面临着消费不足的现象，在这种情况下，为了扩大内需、实现经济增长，国家采用宽松的货币政策来刺激消费，制定了包括发展家庭借贷在内的一系列经济措施。但是随着我国家庭债务的迅速发展，我国消费率仍然比较低，并没有出现提升的现象。家庭债务余额从1997年的172亿元上升到2012年的10.4万亿，然而消费率从1997年的43%下降到2012年的32%，且在这16年间几乎呈直线下降的趋势，从而影响货币政策实施的有效性。因此从家庭借贷行为和居民消费行为这一微观视角来探讨其影响货币政策有效性的内在机制是具有研究意义的。本文首先对国内外相关的经典消费理论和货币政策有效性的理论进行回顾，，并综合分析了是家庭借贷行为的内涵及特征分析，其中包含家庭债务的含义、影响家庭债务的宏微观因素，以及家庭债务总量、结构的特征和与居民消费行为之间的特征分析；其次，在前三部分的理论基础上分析家庭借贷消费行为对我国货币政策有效性的影响分析。其中包括货币政策传导利率渠道、信贷渠道两种渠道，通过这两种机制渠道分析了对家庭借贷带来的影响。除了家庭借贷与货币政策机制分析，还从我国居民消费规模量和消费行为特征两方面对货币政策传导的影响机制分析，得出了其两个特征都阻碍了货币政策的传导；第五部分是中国家庭借贷消费行为与货币政策的实证研究。包括变量选取、数据来源及其特征分析、各变量的描述性统计、用单位根、协整检验、VAR模型等进行实证分析，发现货币政策的实施虽然在一定程度上促进了我国家庭债务的增加，但是由于家庭债务结构的原因没有直接促进我国的消费，加上我国居民消费的特征阻碍了货币政策的传导，因此货币政策在通过家庭债务的传导过程中促进经济增长的效果并不是很明显，使货币政策的有效性没有很好的体现出来；最后一部分是根据前几个部分分析中所涉及到的问题提出一系列有意义的政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of China's economy and related institutional reforms, and with the uncertainty of future income and the increasing large and rigid expenditure on medical care, old-age care, housing, and so on, Chinese family residents have been maintaining "high savings". The consumption pattern of "low consumption" seldom uses the intertemporal consumption pattern to realize immediate consumption, which is very disadvantageous to the economic growth of our country. In particular, after the Asian financial crisis of 1997, China suddenly faced the phenomenon of insufficient consumption. Under such circumstances, in order to expand domestic demand and achieve economic growth, the state adopted loose monetary policies to stimulate consumption. A series of economic measures, including the development of household borrowing, were formulated. However, with the rapid development of household debt in China, the consumption rate is still relatively low. The balance of household debt rose from 17.2 billion yuan in 1997 to 10.4 trillion yuan in 2012, but the consumption rate fell from 43 percent in 1997 to 32 percent in 2012, and the trend was almost plummeted in the 16 years, which affected the effectiveness of monetary policy implementation. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore the internal mechanism of influencing the effectiveness of monetary policy from the microcosmic perspective of household borrowing behavior and resident consumption behavior. This paper first reviews the classical consumption theory and monetary policy validity theory at home and abroad, and comprehensively analyzes the connotation and characteristics of household borrowing behavior, including the meaning of household debt. The macro and micro factors affecting household debt, as well as the total amount of household debt, the characteristics of the structure and characteristics between household debt and consumer behavior. Secondly, Based on the theory of the first three parts, this paper analyzes the influence of household borrowing and consumption behavior on the effectiveness of monetary policy in China. Including the monetary policy transmission interest rate channel, the credit channel two channels, through these two kinds of mechanism channel has analyzed the influence to the household loan. In addition to the analysis of household lending and monetary policy mechanism, the influence mechanism of the consumption scale and consumption behavior on monetary policy transmission in China is analyzed, and it is concluded that both of the two characteristics hinder the transmission of monetary policy. The fifth part is an empirical study of Chinese household lending and consumption behavior and monetary policy. It includes variable selection, data source and its characteristic analysis, descriptive statistics of each variable, empirical analysis with unit root, cointegration test, VAR model, etc. It is found that the implementation of monetary policy has promoted the increase of household debt to a certain extent, but the structure of household debt has not directly promoted the consumption of our country, and the characteristics of consumption of Chinese residents have hindered the transmission of monetary policy. Therefore, the effect of monetary policy in promoting economic growth through the transmission of household debt is not obvious, and the effectiveness of monetary policy is not well reflected; The last part is to put forward a series of meaningful policy recommendations according to the problems involved in the previous part of the analysis.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822.0;F832.479

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